- This topic has 23 replies, 9 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Hi gang <!– s:? –>
<!– s:? –>can the place part of an each way ever be better value than the win?
byefrom
carlisleIn an 8-runner race with an odds-on jolly.The win book will be over-round (>100%), but the place book usually over-broke (<300%). Hence your place bet is technically better value, even though it feels you’re flushing money away with the win part.
Hi Friggo
nice try….. put some meat on them bones please, with a price/value example.
I like each-way bets but, now i think the place is relatively poor value.
byefrom
carlisleTo use Friggo’s example. 8 horse race. Heavy odds on Fav – let’s say 1/12. Second and Third Fav’s are – say – 8/1 and 10/1.
8/1 may represent fair comment on the chance of the horse winning, but 8/5 (place 1/5) for finishing in the placings is much too big.
On course bookies will generally refuse e/w betting on the race, but you can normally get on to a limited degree with the major bookies – at least for a few times.
And if you want to see it in practice check the betfair place only prices for the 2nd and 3rd fav’s. Will be heavily odds on.
Betting ew on the 2nd fav in 8 runner races off course has been very profitable (overall) for many years.
No good on the exchanges as they have 2 seperate markets and as Alderbrook has already stated on course bookmaker will not allow ew betting on 8 runner races.
The key is to link them up into ew doubles.
For example today there were 3 races with the magic 8 runners.
All 3 second favourites won and the 3 ew bets linking them in ew doubles cost £6.00 in stakes but returned £45.82.see ew double link on systems
You dont really have to confined youself to second favourites, just work out the e/w odds being offered by the bookie, and compare it with the place odds on betfair.
If the bookies are 10%+ bigger (on the price), back the selection each way. There’s a thread on another forum somewhere, that has about two years results on it (punterslounge I think).
Just make sure the place market is around 300% for the place and not 250% or something before making any selections.
Hi gang
value only makes sense when viewed alongside risk.
What got me started on this thread was, an attempt to justify my liking for each way bets. Consider the following example.
8 runner race, I narrowed the field down to 4 contenders. Then 100 risk points are divided as such…..
36 Blue Boy (my risk estimate = 7/4) price taken @ 9/4
20 Pink Lady
19 White Girl
10 King David (my risk estimate = 9/1) price taken @ 12/1
————————
15 (the others coupled)Theorical win advantage of about 5% for Blue Boy.
Blue Boy’s chance of being third can strike out Pink Lady & White Girl.
So therefore his place risk estimate is 36/61…. 59% about 4/6 but i will only get a 5th of 9/4… (about 4/9 …poor value)King David’s win advantage is 2.3%. The place being 10/44…. 22.7% about 7/2. The odds of reward being a 5th of 12/1…. (12/5… poor value)
I am just brainstorming here. The strict convertion from scores to odds is likely to be a difficulty. But place betting looks RUFF atm……
Intelligent comments welcomed. (I dont mind being PROVED wrong btw)
byefrom
carlisleCarlisle
You are 100% correct.The massive advantage one has in backing 2nd favs ew in shops or on accounts is that the on course markets where the prices are calculated from is that no on course bookmakers ever offer ew bets in 8 runners races.
So therefore they really could not care if the second fav or indeed any horse (except the favourite) comes second or third in 8 runner races as it will not cost them any money.They are concerned with just the 1 horse winning that is all.
In 6 months from Jan – June 2005 when I studied this 2nd favs in 8 runners races got placed or won 71% of the time.
So that period included around 50% nh racing and 50% flat racing (although I never broke the ratio between jumps and flat down).
(This was just for races where there was no joint favs or no joint second favourites).
I think flatstats came up with more or less the same percentages for a much longer period.
No dilemma for me with this. In similar markets to those described the answer is to back e/w with a traditional bookmaker and lay back the win part on the exchanges. You may lose 10%ish on the win part of the bet by laying it off but in the process you have secured the best available place odds.
As with any betting strategy though it’s more important to understand what you’re good at and what you’re not and bet accordingly rather than because it seems like a good idea.
How exactly are you getting your estimates of place odds Carlisle? Not following how your first horse’s chance of being 3rd can "strike out " your second and third picks. If you have found an accurate way to estimate place odds from win odds, you’ve found the Holy Grail!
Hi carvillshill
well i have dared to estimate risk…. My judgement call has been to assign certain scores to the particular horses. Everyone will do this differently, but if it’s not half bad (time would tell) then a longterm profit should be achieved. This is a side issue though, this thread is about the relative merits of win vs place value.
I feel i can "strike two out" because with regard to the place market the minimum requirement is to finish 3rd. Therefore two horse can be disregarded. (it’s just a race for 3rd) It make sense to me, like i say this is just brainstroming.
I would like to know if this is rubbish.
cheers from
carlisleps place looks really POOR VALUE atm………………
reply to myself
"you prat" place bet isn’t just a race for 3rd, it’s a race for 1st, 2nd & 3rd.
Time for a rethink…..
Hey, place is looking a lot less POORLY….
byefrom
carlisleHi gang
it is easier for a horse to finish 2nd than it is for it to win the race. Equally it is easier to finish 3rd than 2nd.
From the previous example……….
1st Blue Boy (36/100) =7/4
2nd Blue Boy (36/ 80) =6/5
3rd Blue Boy (36/ 61) =4/6The overall place odds are……….. "now i am stuck!!!"
I know that Blue Boy (taken @9/4) will payout a 5th of 9/4 for the place, but what is my estimated place risk?Why is this rubbish?
byefrom
carlisle
<!– s:? –>
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.