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Seriously strong set of entries for this….
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2019-11-02/741098
This is normally the type of race I’d get stuck into, but I’m just a bit hesitant, as there’s 29 in there, and as I’d expect a field of around 12, that’s not a good ratio for picking one who’ll actually go.
Achille and Cloth Cap both represent yards egos runners I really watch for in these big Ascot Handicaps, and both look wrong at 16’s and 14’s respectively.
Not surprisingly, Mister Malarky is favourite. Very popular on here for Newbury, and not hard to see why. Must have a live chance of justifying favouritism if he traps here.
Others to catch the eye are Larry, and the perennially overpriced Regal Encore.
In a race where I do like an Antepost, it’ll probably be one of them, but it’s very tough right this minute, and I wouldn’t be ruling out old Ultragold at 33’s either.
Definitely a race to go over a couple of times.
My bets here are Mister Malarky who might be using this for the Ladbrokes later in the month and Vinndication whose double booked today. Details appear on Pat’s Ante Post bets
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.I think the ground is okay for Cloth Cap at the moment HDLG. He’s won on
g/s before and even if it turns soft, and there is some rain forecast for Fri/Sat, I think
he would still turn up unless it got very heavy. His run last time out at Chepstow was on
soft, and he looked like he was travelling well and was still in contention until he made
a complete horlicks of the 4th last and landed akwardly. He lost his chance there and McLernon
wasn’t hard on him after that. He’s dropped a pound from his highest mark of 137 but I think
he’s still well in at that. I very nearly had him in my Ten To Follow in VTC’s competition, I
think he’ll have a big season. I’ve chanced he makes it and took the 14/1 earlier today.I’ll be following you Graham, but only on the day if he goes. Just can’t see him being 14’s if he does trap.
I’ve had a rethink here, and went for Walk In The Mill. Ground shouldn’t go against him either way, has a great record here, he’s jocked up, and his mark for his Aintree exploits last season is very tempting.
He needs another big run to be guaranteed a run in The National, and I think he’s priced up on the basis that he’ll deal with that in The Becher.
I’m happy to chance that it’ll be here.
Walk In The Mill 25’s EW
Loads of great names showing up in this one. Don’t have a bad record in this, either so I’ll jinx myself nicely!
Double Shuffle rarely runs a bad race and doesn’t seem to be anchored by carrying big weights.
Whisper needs to show the spark is still there and this is much more like it. More than happy to ignore his reappearance. 50/1 is huge.
Ultragold carries my money wherever he goes and I’m still convinced this trip suits. Connections opted for this over two arguably easier assignments at Aintree last weekend.
Walk In The Mill makes plenty of appeal. Didn’t run a single bad race last season and his run in the Grand National should not be overlooked. Was off the bridle a long way out, but kept on fighting. Is this to get him fizzing for another Becher bid?
Four big prices that I can’t really justify taking. Need to streamline!
Great race.
Could back 4 here – Both of Tizzards – Mister Malarky and Ultragold who is a big price but I always think of now as an Aintree National course specialist.
Walk In The Mill is another who has won over the National fences and another who seems a big price. Also has decent Ascot form.
Go Conquer may be now high enough in the weights after two Ps against his name late last season but I won’t be totally ruling him out.
Regal Encore is a horse I can never weigh up. I know VTC is a big fan but it all depends which RE turns up. Has run well at Ascot in the past and is tumbling down the weights. Don’t think I can back him despite his price.
I also think Double Shuffle is over-priced at 25/1
His form figures after 50+ days break are 35232227F2. Looks worthy of an each way bet.I’m also backing Relentless Dreamer at 16/1. Should strip fitter for recent run where he stayed on well. Only has 10 stone which will come in handy if it turns up soft.
Back to the drawing board for me as Cloth Cap didn’t make the line up
I’ll wait till the morning to see what’s on offer, but I’m tempted to have a
bit of the 40/1 e/w on old Ultragold who’s a good horse on his day. I’m sure
something at Aintree will be the plan, so depends how forward they have him.What a great line up this is.
I’m not going to overly dwell on this, as I think that Mister Malarky will have a big season, so he would be my main choice at hopefully above 7-1.
I would also be very confident of Relentless Dreamer finishing in the first 5 here, so I have taken 14-1.
Vinndication had a lovely run round here last season and absolutely pinged the fences. Back right handed, after a wind op and some schooling to get his confidence up after hitting a couple at Cheltenham, I’m hoping to see a Grade 1 horse.
Yeah Homer, I just can’t leave Regal Encore here. Good record here, not far off the best of these, and looks really well treated. Once Walk In The Mill wasn’t going, I took the 25’s EW to the five places.
I also like Larry here, and have taken the 10’s Win.
I have to ask myself why are they still running Whisper ? He’s been a top class horse,
going down a nose to Might Bite in the Gold Cup, beaten by that one again in the Mildmay,
beat Clan Des Obeaux next time out, then found only Total Recall to get the better of him
in the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase. All those runs were just a couple of years ago. He had his
injury problems and was out for 18 months before looking a shadow of his former self at
Haydock in May of this year. He transfers from Nicky Henderson to Sam Thomas in October
and ran a week later at Chepstow where he was last, beaten a long way. So the question is
why persevere with a horse that owes nobody anything and the owners have enough decent
horses to keep them going, including such as Al Dancer. He is 11 now and if he is simply
in decline then surely they wouldn’t want a horse that was rated 169 in his heyday just
a couple of years ago to trail home behind horses that he wouldn’t have left in his wake.
I’m sure Sam thomas wants to make his mark in training, and he’s a good enough judge to
say when it’s time to retire, so is he showing something at home that they think it’s
worth persevering with him. He’s down 16lbs from before his problems 2 years back, if he
has anything of the old Whisper left in him, and he would certainly have needed those 2
races after lengthy absences, maybe there might be some mileage in the old boy yet. If he
trails in last here then surely they will retire him, but I’m going to have a few quid 66/1
5 places e/w on the off chance he remembers how good he used to be.He was beaten a nose by Might Bite in the RSA, not the Gold Cup. And that was only because Might Bite tried to run out. I know Whisper is massively overpriced on his best form but I am not a fan of backing horses in decline.
I wonder if Vinndication is too short here and priced up on reputation. He could be making the market for something else. Mister Mallarky looks a solid each way choice. Wonder if there might be a bit of value in the double figure prices as well.
G he wasn’t second to might bite in the GC , it was the RSA , such a shame injuries have hampered his career , would be a excellent piece of training if he can get him back , as a few have said this is a really competitive handicap and a fair few have solid chances , I still think there a good race in cobrai de mai.not sure Cheltenham suits him so maybe today will be the day , I’m going to play double shuffle to and I reckon the most likely winner is vindication , going to rev forecast the 3 , good luck all
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