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Hi guys,
I spent an unusual amount of time (for me) looking at the lower league matches, simply because there are no Premiership matches this weekend.
I came up with eleven selections, all based on this season’s home form compared to away form, and most importantly, current form overall (last six to eight matches).
Let’s see how we get on to a £1 level stake on each selection – all at Betfair’s current prices.
1. Norwich @ 3.05 away to Leicester. (lost)
2. Cheltenham @ 2.54 home to Hartlepool. (drew)
3. Doncaster @ 2.14 home to Leeds. (called off)
4. Northampton @ 2.02 home to Gillingham. (won)
5. Notts Forest @ 1.76 home to Swindon. (won)
6. Swansea @ 1.74 away to Port Vale. (won)
7. Brentford @ 1.77 home to Accrington. (won)
8. Notts County @ 2.9 away to Chester. (won)
9. Mansfield @ 6.0 away to Darlington. (won)
10. Hereford @ 1.97 home to Chesterfield. (won)
11. Stocktport @ 2.0 home to Bury. (lost)You might think I’m mad going for Mansfield at Darlo. Darlington have a good home record but they haven’t been convincing of late, winning narrowly and the goals seem to have stopped flowing. Mansfield have won their last three on the road. So that’s a 4-0 to Darlo then
I think Swansea is the bet of the day. They are top of the league, unbeaten in 15, and have won 5 out of their last 6 away from home. They take on rock bottom Port Vale who haven’t won in six games now.
I also fancy Doncaster, Brentford, Notts County and Hereford very strongly, but if I was pushed for a treble it would be Swansea, Brentford and Hereford at combined odds of around 5/1.
I will come back and do a profit/loss calculation on Monday morning as I’m out for the rest of the weekend. I won’t include the treble in this calculation – just the 11 win singles.
Good luck to anyone having a flutter this weekend.
Mike
A few people fancy Darlington against Leeds, today.
Darlington beat Leeds at Elland Road earlier in the season didn’t they.
A few people fancy Darlington against Leeds, today.
Darlington beat Leeds at Elland Road earlier in the season didn’t they.
I think you meant Doncaster Gaz, but yes you’re right they did win at Elland Road just a few weeks ago. However, that game has been called off due to a frozen pitch so at least I can’t draw a complete blank this weekend with my stake returned on that one
Mike
I’m with you regarding Notts County away to Chester. Sadly (as a Chester fan – there I’ve come out ,
) Notts C. should cruise this.
Chester are eminently beatable and are suffering a dreadful run at the moment. (Even when they were doing well, they still faltered when at home).
They’ve been beaten by some of the bottom sides recently and got a good tonking (6-2) away at the mighty Dagenham & Redbridge this week.
Chester’s manager has had to let some of his more experienced players go during the recent transfer window and, with the club having a wage-cap signing restriction, haven’t replaced them. (Although a certain player by the name of Vaughan has returned to the club. He’s not up to League standard, but is the Chairman’s son!).
Added to that rumours of wages being paid late and backroom dissent mixed with low gates (barely above 2,000 and less than that last time) and Chester, sadly, look on a spiral of decline. It’s not a million to one that they’ll go into administration either.
And you thought you had it tough Mikky supporting Middlesborough!
I feel like a bit of a traitor, but have backed Chester at 15’s to a few quid on Betfair to be relegated. Don’t look at their current league position – they are now worse than sh*te and will be down with the relegattion fodder in a month or so.l
Good luck with your bet today.week 1 staked: £11, week 1 returns: £19.16, week 1 profit: +£8.16
A great start
£1 staked on each of the eleven matches would have returned us £19.16, that’s a profit of £8.16 to a £1 level stake.
As I thought, Darlo were vulnerable at home, while all of my three strong selections won, landing us the treble – however, I haven’t calculated that into the profit/loss.
I will study hard again during the week and post my main selections. Let’s hope this isn’t a one off and there really are good profits to be made by backing singles.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend guys, I’m off on a long drinking session now.
Mike
I have been backing every team who has faced Gretna in the SPL from the start of the season. I also advised others to do the same. Out of their depth is the phrase that comes to mind. I honestly hope they never set foot in the SPL again.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Looked at the betting for Real Betis vs Real Madrid last night before kick-off.
Betis were 4/1, would have been nice to have had some of that.
Sat 23rd Feb
11/4 TREBLE CHANCE
MAN UTD 4/9
WEST BROM 6/10
WATFORD 4/6
You might get a 10% bonus at Hills making it a 3.2 Bet!
BTW, Nice to see Ladbrokes more agressive Pricing in recent weeks[/color:1xw8ves2]
total profit/loss to a £1 level stake = +£8.16 (+74%)
Hi guys,
Had another look at the lower league football this week and below are my selections for today. I will stake another mythical £1 on every game at Betfair’s current odds and see if we can make an overall profit.
1. Scunthorpe @ 2.6 home to Southampton (drew = lose)
2. Stoke @ 2.06 home to Ipswich (won = WIN)
3. Bournemouth @ 2.18 home to Cheltenham (drew = lose)
4. Bristol Rovers DRAW @ 3.4 v Tranmere (drew = WIN)
5. Huddersfield @ 2.94 away to Gillingham (lost = lose)
6. Swindon @ 2.46 home to Wallsall (lost = lose)
7. Stockport @ 2.24 away to Accrington Stanley (won = WIN)
8. MK Dons @ 2.24 away to Barnet (won = WIN)
9. Darlington @ 2.44 away to Bury (won = WIN)
10. Brentford @ 3.2 away to Chesterfield (drew = lose)
11. Peterborough @ 2.05 away to Macclesfield (won = WIN)
12. Lincoln @ 3.7 away to Rotherham (lost = lose)The significant aspect of this weeks selections is the amount of away teams that have an excellent chance in League Two. The Racing Post highlighted earlier in the week how there has been more away victories in this league than there has home victories – and hopefully that will continue this week.
Good luck to anyone having a bet this weekend.
Mike
UPDATE
week 2 staked: £12, week 2 returns: £14.43, week 2 profit/loss: +£2.43 (+20%)
total staked: £23, total returns: £33.59, total profit/loss: +£10.59 (+46%)Excellent start. You’re a brave man getting stuck into Leagues 1 & 2, Mike. I find the Championship challenging enough!. With a good selection spread I have no doubt you’ll continue to edge out on top.
>4/1 (4.2) Treble Chance March1-2
Arsenal 1/2
Everton 10/11
Norwich 5/6Hi guys,
Here we go again, with another delve into the lower divisions to see if we can make a profit on single matches. There are a lot of tricky fixtures this week, but hopefully at least half of the below can win to guarantee a profit of some sorts;
1. Wolves @ 2.6 away to Colchester (won = WIN)
2. Wallsall @ 2.36 away to Luton (lost = loss)
3. Northampton @ 1.85 home to Crewe (drew = loss)
4. Port Vale @ 2.92 home to Oldham (lost = loss)
5. Tranmere DRAW @ 3.45 v Doncaster (away win = loss)
6. Stockport @ 3.65 away to Hereford (won = WIN)
7. Lincoln @ 2.92 home to Wycombe (won = WIN)
8 Notts County @ 3.05 away to Macclesfield (drew = loss)
9. MK Dons @ 1.51 home to Chester (won = WIN)
10. Peterborough @ 1.51 home to Bury (won = WIN)
11. Mansfield @ 3.3 away to Wrexham (drew = loss)Stockport County have won their last six or seven away games now and look way too big at 3.65 away to Hereford, while MK Dons and Peterborough look to have easy tasks at home, despite the trend of away teams having a better record than the home teams this season.
Good luck to anyone having a bet.
Mike
UPDATE
week 3 staked: £12, week 3 returns: £12.19, week 3 profit/loss: +£0.19 (+1.5%)
total staked: £35, total returns: £45.78, total profit/loss: +£10.78 (+31%)Shrewsbury 7/4 away to Barnet
Shrewsbury form on paper doesnt look great recentley,but looking abit deeper
led against Hereford at home lost 2-1 come back from 3-1 down against MK Dons to 3-3,drew away to Brentford who themselves are unbeaten in six,you have to go back to Jan 5th when they last failed to score in a league match,but even more importantly their last three matches were played without top goalscorer Hibbert who has netted 11 times and is back from suspension for tommorrows game.Barnet havent won in their last five and only scoring once, but they have had some tough matches MK Dons Peterboro Brentford Darlington and Morcombe
previous to that they did win 2-1 away at Hereford,another point against them is their top goalscorer Puncheon who has 9 goals has failed to find the net since boxing day last year.Cheeky bets
Shrewsbury to win 3-0 @28/1, 3-1 @25/1, 4-0 @100/1 and 4/1 @80/1week 3 staked: £12, week 3 returns: £12.19, week 3 profit/loss: +£0.19 (+1.5%)
total staked: £35, total returns: £45.78, total profit/loss: +£10.78 (+31%)Not such a great week last weekend, though we just about managed to break even – which leads me to think that even a bad week can be ok.
However, I’ved decided to tinker with my betting system slightly. I’m still going to place single bets in the lower divisions, but instead of placing £1 (or 1 point depending on how you look at it), I’m going to place £3 on my three main selections, £2 on my next three, and £1 on my remaining selections. This is because out of the three weeks I’ve posted, my strongest selections have won each week – let’s hope it continues.
1. Doncaster @ 1.38 home to Port Vale – £3
2. Rochdale @ 2.5 away to Mansfield – £3
3. Morecambe @ 3.15 away to Bury – £3
4. Notts Forest @ 2.16 away to Crewe – £2
5. Macclesfield @ 4.05 away to Brentford – £2
6. Hereford @ 2.24 away to Accrington – £2
7. Hartlepool @ 1.96 home to Gillingham – £1
8. Bradford @ 3.95 away to Stockport – £1
9. Darlington @ 2.88 away to Wycomb – £1So that’s £18 staked this week on 9 matches. I know it’s not original but Doncaster Rovers must be certainties to beat poor Port Vale, while in Division Two the away teams look to continue the trend by upsetting the home teams with my strongest hunch being for Morecambe and Rochdale.
With my new staking plan, effectively it would only take two teams (Macclesfield and Morecambe) to win to just about break even – sounds easy, but it isn’t
Good luck to anyone having a bet.
Mike
) Notts C. should cruise this.
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