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I would agree that a figure of 170+ does seem too high for Snoopy Loopy but how else can you rate the race.
It reminds me of the situation with Hawk Wing’s Lockinge.
Did all of the principals in the Betfair under-perform?
The RPR seems to have been arrived at by saying that Cloudy Lane, 13 lengths(ish) back, has run to his mark of 158.
Difficult to know what else they could have done.
Only my opinion, of course.
Colin
Slightly misleading Cav. Any horse that completed would have beaten Kauto Star on Saturday, Exotic Dancer ran way below form and SN was getting 16lb from Voy Por Ustedes (who is rated 173 himself) at Aintree.
He will deserve to be rated 170+ when he done something that merits it on the book, not when you can string together a nice sounding list of horses he has finished in front of…
When viewed through the eyes of a collateral form purist that makes perfect sense TDK.
I’ve been mulling the race over for the past few days and my conclusion is had I ignored conventional wisdom (collateral form) and backed a horse that had finished in front of or close behind two,172 and 173 rated chasers I would have had a cracking 33/1 bet. I can apply the same analysis to Tamarinbleu Bleu and his 12 length defeat of 173 rated Twist Magic in the Victor Chandler earlier this year.
I’m assuming Kauto Star would have stood up on Saturday, Snoopy Loopy if he hadn’t beaten Kauto Star would have been close, its fair to say.
I’m a big fan of ratings on the flat but I’m learning quickly weight factored into collateral form ratings over fences does not have the same relevance at all.
I had no bet in the race on Saturday but mistakenly ignored the winner and the second by taking collateral form too literally. Its a mistake I wont be making again.
Cav
Are you not going down the route of a completely seperate argument though. RPR’s are collateral form ratings.
Just to give it some perspective and stir it up it maybe, hes rated all of 4lbs below Beef or Salmons best
Agree thats it is somewhat high and they have rated the race so very literally.
All the focus has been on Kauto’s dip below form but what have been the reasons given for Exotic’;s disturbing performance? I suppose it says something of the respective meroits of the trainers that Kautos slip is seen as possibiliy something fundamental with the horse (im not so sure) whereas ED is greeted with a shrug of the shoulders….
The 172 and 173 I refer to David are BHB ratings and yes I see what your getting at. I’m looking at taking that oficial BHB rating as a measure of overall ability then rating horses around that ¨yardstick¨ as long as the ¨yardstick¨ finishes within 5 or 6 lengths ie. runs to some sort of form, then rating the other runners around that but without the addition or subtraction of weight conceded or recieved. I understand it wouldnt always lead you down the correct path, the same applies to speed figures, but based on Saturday results its a method that could yield some outstanding value from time to time.
All the focus has been on Kauto’s dip below form but what have been the reasons given for Exotic’;s disturbing performance?
He raced too freely (understandable given the stop-start gallop) and didn’t jump well (not completely out of character), hence running a stone or so below his best IMO.
In hindsight
Crack Away Jack is another example, made favourite for the CH and a short price on Saturday based on weight conceded to average-ish horses at Chepstow.As a mater of interest what do Timeform rate Snoopy Loopy after Saturday? Also, is the Timeform master rating the best rating achieved in the last 12 months, if not what is the timescale?
The master rating is that awarded at the discretion of each handicapper. There is no set time frame, such constraints would lead to a huge amount of horses badly out of form ending up as the top rated, an unsatisfactory course for any commercial ratings organisation. Snoopy Loopy is currently rated 157, improving 2 lb on Saturday with Tamarinbleu 4 below form and Exotic Dancer 15 below.
Just to give it some perspective and stir it up it maybe, hes rated all of 4lbs below Beef or Salmons best
Agree thats it is somewhat high and they have rated the race so very literally.
All the focus has been on Kauto’s dip below form but what have been the reasons given for Exotic’;s disturbing performance? I suppose it says something of the respective meroits of the trainers that Kautos slip is seen as possibiliy something fundamental with the horse (im not so sure) whereas ED is greeted with a shrug of the shoulders….
Exotic Dancer, could he have been a Snoopy Loopy type in 2006 but without the Grade 1 victory ?
170 is far too high in my opinion, and strikes me as being lazy ‘black-and-white’ form handicapping. As mentinoned in a post-mortem discussion in the Big Races section my view was neither Snoopy Loopy nor Tamarinbleu needed to improve much, if at all, and his less-than-footsure fencing wasn’t tested by the soft fences. 160 tops.
Exotic Dancer ran at least a stone below form due to not settling at all in the race, wasting too much energy in the process and in all likelyhood resented being asked for an effort at the finish having not enjoyed being unduly restrained earlier.
Though as others have said he may leave us with egg on our face should he run well in the Hennessy. Time will tell. One tough, genuine horse that’s for sure and that counts for more than a little.
Hello,
Obviously Saturday’s performance needs to be assessed, but how an animal that finished third in the Charlie Hall achieves 170 after the next race is flawed…
regards,
doyley
Hello,
Obviously Saturday’s performance needs to be assessed, but how an animal that finished third in the Charlie Hall achieves 170 after the next race is flawed…
Not true, because each race is separate entity and there are plenty of horses which perform at a different level from race to race. You may make the judgement that others performed below form but that is only an opinion and more or less valid than many others.
Rob
I think "an opinion" that Kauto ran to form (let alone ED) is a about as valid as "an opinion" that the moon is made of cheese or that deep fried Mars bars are good for your health
Aren’t RPR’s generally a lot higher than OR’s? And if so are we talking cross purposes?
When will the official handicapper rate him?
Sorry for all the questions!
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