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I should stress mind Ginger, my databse I have adapted to an excel sheet is for recording my notes, pace mapping, statistics, any race day queries of the meets etc. I used to keep all my notes on the RP but I figured if I ever stopped using it or it went, I would lose my notes so I keep them there.
That is interesting you don’t have many large discrepancies Ginger, but using Timeform you are always more likely to end up near the market, but you obviously find value with them.
We probably differ there that finding large discrepancies have often been hugely profitable bets.
Having time to look is half the battle. At the height of my betting full time I lived in the formbook and knew plenty about just about every horse before I opened a card. I often price up to be on or near market, but when I get a discrepancy I go for it.
Little example, I backed Tagula Nights at Chester one year. I priced him 4/1 fav was 14/1 in the morning. I had watched him run into trouble in races, get bad draws. I think in 3 races of 5 he had something go wrong for him. There other 2 no real excuses, but as result was coming down handicap. He went to Chester over 6f, with stall 2 as a front runner over 6f and was dropping back in class. It all stood out for him. He won at I think about 7/1 in end. And there are many more. Often it is just getting 5s about a 4 etc but sometimes things can really slip in there.
Dynamite, I also agree with you on contenders. I shape my markets firstly by deciding what I think is the most likely winner, and this will make it in as my favourite. Amongst the other runners I look for significant angles as to why I think they can win. I tend to then be down to only so many I will play, I suppose it is applying some subjectivity and applying the percentages.
When I price up I start from the outsiders and work in to get my prices about the chance angles. I generally only then play my chance angles.
What do you use for your form analysis?
Another thing, I think it really pays to be bold. My favourite bets are when your most likely winner isn’t favourite. I back myself and go at them aggressively. Statistically speaking they win just as part of the percentages, but for the subjectivity inside when they win and win well it feels like strong vindication.
So good of you tb to join the two of us for the tea party it has been thought provoking and terrific fun. I say two – I forgot to count myself
. There’s Dynamite the fresh young scientist’ Ginge in his white forensic gown and you tb doing the hard work collating all the data and me – well just making the tea and bringing the 🎂The 📕 is spot on with main contenders and what I call the tortoise philosophy- slow well considered steps but carefully done. I am head killed from yesterday – up at 6.30 and right though to midnight to cover 38 races or jigsaws. I will leave my little acorns later. 5% is actually quite good if you go down what I call the traditional white coat Benter approach route. As far as time needed tb – there are some side alleys and I am not talking programmes that can cut out a lot of the grudge. That may sound a bit elitist as if I have found a secret tunnel to Fort Knox but you could say, one day – well back 10 years now,I put on a different pair of spectacles and its only in the last six months I bothered to actually clean them.
I want to say to all of you I have written a little poem specially for youse.
BEANFEAST
Dy Ginge and tb
thanks for the tea,
and all dem beans
You’ve dropped for free.On a more serious note thank you Dynamite for your time in putting this together – it’s a good project and a very enjoyable read.
flatcapgamble…Two kings went to war and both gave up their kingdoms when they unfortunately came across big billy goat gamble quietly grazing on a hill.
tbracing wrote…
What do you use for your form analysis?
I have developed six main types of ANALYSIS…
1. Produce my own speed ratings
2. Enhanced Van Der Wheil spreadsheet
3. Owner – Trainer – Jockey (class scores)
4. use software called PRO PUNTER
5. Watch video result to spot the sleepers
6. highlight well handicapped horseThey all produce preditive POWER that i trust. My database of results provide the raw material,
for the data hungry programs. The eventual information display is colourful and meaning rich. In the interpretation/evaluating phase3 i look along the line and any horses that are scoring highly on most of the outputs they go on to my shortlist.The computer can only do so much the ultimate decision must be a human one imo. I am not the finished article yet “watch this space”. It all takes TOO long and lacks slick efficiency right now.
There are loads of other TOPICs (in the pipeline for the future) after this sideshow experience.
btw After lockdown i am just going to focus on SATURDAY’s racing inorder hone my methods.
D21
Here’s my thoughts about the 2nd Chapter “Battle of Wits”
!!! Forewarned is Forearmed !!!
…
D21
“Learn your trade, rock up and ply your trade”You are right there is no “easy/quick” way to make a profit long run. Hard work, discipline, accurate figures, experience and all round knowledge will help. I’ve produced my own speed ratings for around 25 years now and in the height of the summer when there is a plethora of racing and evening meets it feels like a never ending working day. I have periods of “I’ll think I will call it a day” but I always seem to bounce back. I have been betting professionally/semi professionally for a long time now and it takes time, self discipline and a lot of patience as well as the ability to “switch off” emotion (that must basically go out of the window). This enforced break is the longest I’ve had in years!…..but missing the challenge now and look forward to a gradual return.
Hi SandmanAW
it’s all about working efficently, 4 hours study per day sounds just about ideal to me. Being TOTALLY confident that the method we have developed is a make money activity is also vital. No guesswork based only on proof. Just like the BUNCO booth guy we know we have an EDGE over joe public, and the belief is hammer home every working day.
The computer makes the big difference, the tasks can be automated to a large extent… (i can help you with this) We need to hold on to our closely guarded secrets obviously, but general discussion on speeding processes up is no problem. (new topic anyone???)
Sometimes i think studying the horses most of the day then betting until late isn’t possible to sustain. Like trying to be Premiership player/manager.
Work smarter not harder is the key.
D21
Hello Dynamite, I’ll be the first to admit that I am far, far away from being computer savvy and with my antiquated methods I often get bogged down and behind on keeping figures up to date and as accurate as possible. I probably try to look into too many races on the whole as I enjoy* and have been successful through tote betting in the past (i.e combo placepots, exactas, trifectas ). You can go a while between drinks but as long as you are ticking over then a reward can be just around the corner. This obviously is time and effort consuming so it’s a case of trying to remain profitable but keep the happy medium between work and hopefully some pleasure!.. Not easy, far from it.
Lot of that chapter is common sense Dynamite. However, am a little worried the author seems yet to consider value…
The trick is not to beat a single race – but to beat almost any race that’s fit to play.
True, “the trick is not to beat a single race” but…
“To beat almost any race that’s fit to play”, is only true if “fit to play” means only when value can be had.
If “beat almost any race” means the punter is trying to win every race by backing loads of shortish priced horses, then it’s going to be difficult.Having many more winners than a punter used to does not necessarily mean he/she is doing better overall than used to be the case. Neither does it mean he/she shows a profit. ie Backing shorter priced horses means a greater number of winners is needed in order to show a profit. eg 22% strike rate with an average priced winner of 9/2 is much better than a 44% SR with an average priced winner of 11/10…And don’t forget that if backing two 3/1 shots (same stake) in the same race and one wins, the odds taken for the win should be counted as Evens, not 3/1.
Must admit to backing two, three or more horses in most races myself! So the chances of me winning any race I bet in is quite large. However, everything I bet must individually be considered by me as value/over-priced and personally (personal preference) would not be put off backing outsiders in amongst them. Doing it this way means backing outsiders does not result in an extremely long losing run. I rarely bet an individual racehorse @ odds-on (solely because am not as good at identifying the odds-on value), but often bet a number of horses whose combined chance adds up to odds-on, occasionally long odds-on. Although some will be main bets and some savers – so as not to risk too much in one race.
Value Is EverythingYes i agree Gingertipster,
the author’s statement is too ambitious. Select solvable races then estimate the odds …the value will jump off the oddschecker screen. That’s my approach. NO BET is always an option in my book.
I also usually back more than one in a race. If i have analysed the race thoroughly it seems a crime not to mop up the generous prices. Often i bag the forecast …nice work ah! SandmanAW
*(reserving judgement on the book until further along the journey)
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