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Backing the favourite 10 times, and it winning 9.5 times is a worse return than the50-1 shot winning 0.5 times out of 10!
Inspired tipping BB.
The favourite was never vulnerable and should have been the winner but on any other day he would have been, don’t get me wrong it’s nice to have the odd 33/1 winner but 9.5 times out of 10 that favourite wins and I’d back it to beat the winner if they ever met again.
I just don’t know how you can say that in regard to a horse that had run in 7 handicaps, had never managed to win one, and was now running off 6 lbs higher than it had ever run off in a handicap before
If it couldn’t win in 7 tries off lower marks, why should it win now off a career high mark ?
If it couldn’t win in 7 tries off lower marks, why should it win now off a career high mark ?
The horse did win on the 5th of September and it’s clearly improving but if you want to lay it next time out with me then state how much you’re willing to stake given you’re so adamant that she’s such a bad horse/bet.
Congratulations must go to Blues Brother for finding that winner! saviour the moment because those don’t come around too often and if you do fancy a big price then please make sure it’s not in my race
It’s won a couple of times in class 6 Classified stakes, but they’re not handicaps………..
So……a bit irrelevant to my point that the horse has been unable to win in 7 handicaps off lower marks, therefore wasn’t really a good thing to win off a 6 lb higher mark than it had ever run off before
If you read page 1 I proved why it was a good thing which is the whole point of this thread and I’m not that interested in what its done prior to the race I’ve rated because it has no relation to the actual context I’m using or what I’m trying to project.
I will however use previous races in the formbook to question certain criteria but it’s not the cornerstone of my theory.
Like I said well done if you backed Blues tip or layed my horse, enjoy your winnings!.
Kempton 24.10.12
82.59
Out Do
88.61
Secret Number
72.49
Cat O’Mountain
82.93
Maggie Pink
78.83
Numeral
86.90
Daruband
Variance:
2.09 (Standard)
Unquestionably the horse to take form this meeting is
SECRET NUMBER
for Godolphin in the 2yo Maiden over a mile, missing the break he made headway into midfield before coming wide in his challenge in the home straight whilst taking a while to pick up he won by the shortest of margins.
I have him running to a 0-100 Benchmark over the mile at Kempton with an improvement of 18lbs on wherever you deem to see a legitimate figure of ability.
The line through Waldenberg on his run behind Flying Officer where he’s run to around a mark of 71 and has finished in similar vein here I assume it would be relevant to put Secret Number on a mark of 93 which is even more significant given the we have 18lbs improvement and that would give us a mark of 89 so it’s a similar balance.
93
Secret Number 2/1F
93
Pether’s Moon (IRE) 14/1
83
Portmonarch (IRE) 7/1
71
Wallenberg 5/1
69
Revise (IRE) 33/1
67
London Bridge (USA) 16/1
64
Soul Intent (IRE) 50/1
64
Celebrated Talent (USA) 5/1
58
Jaladee 20/1
58
Count Curlin (USA) 33/1
56
Great Ormond (IRE) 66/1
54
Isis Blue 10/1
30
So Lyrical 66/1
–
Frederick Alfred 100/1
/
On the subject of Neige D’Antan it proves why you can never stop learning in Horse Racing, it’s clear form the results that the slow pace affected her chances and would clearly suit a strong run affair – where’s Den’s Gift when you need him?
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