- This topic has 9 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Why is he 11/1 and Alvisio Ville just 5/4?
Their maiden hurdle form around Christmas at Leopardstown is quite similar. I know what Ruby thinks of Alvisio Ville, but Silver Concorde has won the best race at the Festival (at least the race that throws up the most future winners)!!!! and should be a lot further going into this race.
So I’d rather take the 11/1 for a Festival winner than the 5/4 for the winner of a maiden hurdle. Obviously I will be proved to be wrong, but the price seems just too good to be true. At least for now.Silver Concorde looked very awkward with his headcarriage when beaten by Blair Perrone and didn’t jump well either. He was fit from a run on the flat there and Blair Perrone is no worldbeater, so you can see why he isn’t well fancied. The ground also isn’t ideal for him tomorrow, having been kept to good ground apart from an easy win in a weak bumper at Leopardsdown in Dec ’13.
A lot of Champion Bumper winners don’t really follow through to become nippy hurdlers. In recent years, Cousin Vinny, Cheltenian, Hairy Molly and Cork All Star never hit dazzling heights. Of Dr Lambe’s pair, I’d rather be with Windsor Park.
I don’t know what to say, but I had the impression that DK’s string was a bit behind and out of form around the Christmas period. So that is why I’m willing to forgive him that rather poor performance when 2nd in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown.
However Ruby Walsh surely is an excellent judge of horses, maybe the best of all jockeys, and I think he knows what Alvisio Ville is capable to deliver over hurdles or even has already delivered at home.A really strong novice hurdle tomorrow with lots of depth. I remember Weld said last year that there was very little between Silver Concorde, Vigil and Windsor Park, so no real surprise to see Davy Russell choose the latter horse.
The horse I like in this is Identity Thief. Not as flashy as some of the others but looks a horse with huge potential. He came from the clouds to win his bumper and then beat a good yardstick in Snow Falcon (has since won easily at Navan. I thought he won with a fair degree of authority that day despite the winning margin and think he’ll take another step forward tomorrow.
As ridiculous as this might sound, does anybody think Windsor park could be getting lined up for a handicap? Was dropped out the back the last day over 2 mile 4 and travelled well but didn’t really pick up so i can’t understand a drop in trip with the muddling way a lot of these races are run? If given a mark right now i’d say it’d be about 131/132 or so? That along with the obligatory few lbs the British handicapper would give would leave him a nice mark around the bottom of the weights for the Coral cup or maybe even the County hurdle at a championship pace might be enough of a test?
Today will tell us a lot,could have been just a case the last day of him needing the run against that company and not getting given too hard of a time to have him ready for future.
Silver Concorde is 14/1 in some places. That’s a huge and worrying price at the same time. Beaten at 1/3 probably tells the story and the rest of the market is painting by numbers with AP on the JP runner and Ruby on Nicholls Canyon setting the pecking order for the Mullins runners.
Identity Thief each way at 8/1 would be my call in the circumstances.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well, we saw why Silver Concorde was such a big price and we also saw the folly of once raced impressive winners going off short when the stable has other contenders in there. That’s the Alvisio Ville bubble burst.
Identity Thief was absolute garbage, looked totally out of his depth there.
Nicholls Canyon’s win takes me back to Allez Colombiers, who was warm favourite in the race the former horse ultimately won following the injury to the one-time Supreme Novices favourite, which sadly proved fatal. Makes you wonder what might have been.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Considering the fact that both DK Weld runners were held up and started to come into contention when some of the opposition started to get tired, you still have to give them some credit. But the runner up simply isn’t a Grade 1 horse and his handicap mark would make it for him impossible to land a proper one. Silver Concorde might not be a jumper after all and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him being aimed at the top staying races on the Flat.
Immense run from
Windsor Park
after giving away first run to Nichols Canyon, really encouraged by that. I may have to rescue my Supreme ticket from the bin now.
He must be a serious contender for G1 honours after that run, especially as he does better on quicker ground.Nichols Canyon has one of the most exaggerated soft ground knee actions you’ll ever see. His best flat runs were on soft/heavy, with several "hung left" or "hung right" comments on his runs on quicker conditions. I strongly feel Windsor Park is the only Supreme contender who ran in that race.
A really strong novice hurdle tomorrow with lots of depth. I remember Weld said last year that there was very little between Silver Concorde, Vigil and Windsor Park, so no real surprise to see Davy Russell choose the latter horse.
The horse I like in this is Identity Thief. Not as flashy as some of the others but looks a horse with huge potential. He came from the clouds to win his bumper and then beat a good yardstick in Snow Falcon (has since won easily at Navan. I thought he won with a fair degree of authority that day despite the winning margin and think he’ll take another step forward tomorrow.
Identity Thief was a massive drifter, and could be backed at 12/1 on course right up to the off. I backed him at 6/1 so to see such a drift I knew the writing was on the wall. Someone somewhere knew something and the horse ran what can only be described as a complete stinker.
He must be a serious contender for G1 honours after that run, especially as he does better on quicker ground.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.