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If Ballydoyle think that Septimus is their best chance at winning the Melbourne Cup this year, then running him in the Curragh Cup this weekend (he’d win) is probably not their best option.
To keep the handicapper at bay, it might be better not to run him in Europe at all this summer, send him to Aussie early and give him a one-run Australian prep in the Cox Plate or Caulfield Cup over an inadequate trip.
Re other Ballydoyle possibilities for Melbourne:
Yeats – no, don’t do it. Send him to stud in his glorious pomp.
Macarthur – on Hardwicke running, probably doesn’t have the necessary toe. Lovely horse but not for Melbourne.
Honolulu – no way. Needs further – no toe, grinder.
Mahler – may be saving this one from the handicapper. But if he couldn’t do it last year, he’ll be running for a place at best this year.
Septimus is their best chance. Try an Australian prep.
They need my advice like a hole in the head. <!– s:lol: –>
<!– s:lol: –>It would be nice to see a race up there between Yeats – Septimus – Mahler – Honululu – Coastal Path – Patkai over 3600m.
What are the chances of them all coming together in a race ?
Best horse you need for the Melbourne Cup is a Group 2 or 3 who is good over 1m2f or 1m4f.
The traditional stayer has no chance when you look at the way the race is run and a lot of Cup horses run from 6f to 1m4f in their domestic season.
Septimus won a G2 over 10f – admittedly as a 3 year old. Also placed in a 12f G1 (Coronation Cup) last year. If he has a good weight, he might just do it!
From reading AOB’s comments re: Septimus, i reckon they’ll arrange a pacemaker, through entry or acquisition
Always seems to me that the horses with enough class sent from Europe are always weighted out of it and the one’s we send which get less than 9 stone aren’t good enough to beat the Anzacs on their own turf.
Could do with someone like Mark Prescott getting a fast improver ready for the day and see what happens then
No pacemakers in Australia.
Neil is spot on – 1m4f Group 2 or 3 horse can win the Melbourne Cup and usually does. And then you get a rare occurrence of an absolute standout such as Makybe Diva.
When Yeats was beaten for toe by Pop Rock and Delta Blues in 2006 at the 400m mark I knew this was not his style. Kieran Fallon even admited afterwards that he needed the sprint trained back into him. But APO’B would never do that – surely the Gold Cup has more significance!?
Scorpion was almost the ideal candidate. When he showed some significant toe in a stop-start affair in last year’s Coronation Cup I penned him in for the Melbourne Cup stint. He was the type to do it. I don’t think Septimus is, however.
Always seems to me that the horses with enough class sent from Europe are always weighted out of it
Greg Carpenter is working on a new approach to handicapping the Europeans. But if any European has hit the frame in a Group 1 they are bound to collect 9st 1lb.
No pacemakers in Australia.
Are they banned or something – how can you legislate against it – he could send Macarthur over who would have a chance but then just run him as a pacemaker for Septimus.
I guess they just take the being ridden to obtain the best possible placing thing more seriously in Australia David.
David,
It was of my opinion that in last year’s Melbourne Cup, Mahler would act as the pacesetter to Scorpion although he would be running genuinely as it was.
All our horses are simply bred for toe – so there’s really no reason to scrutinise any pacemakers because they just won’t appear. I guess if APO’B tries some team tactics and wins the race then the grandstand will be torn down.
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