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Been reading sportinglifes view on runners and I was drawn to major Dundee and Jersey bean from what they write up
VF x
Once again the Devil vomits in my kettle – thanks!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Chirico Vallis looks solid on the form of his Classic Chase 3rd at Warwick. Remains on that mark where he split Gericault Roque and Corach Rambler.
Bobby did you think The ferry master got home last year ? , to my eye it does look like Sandy has been prepping him for Sat but I’m just worried a couple might do him late on , knowing Sandy luck this year he,ll be 2nd , it’s been 2nds all year
It’s definitely a bit of a concern the way he emptied, but few pounds lower will help. Think the yards been a bit flat this year, and first time in several seasons I’ve deliberately swerved a few of them.
That said, I think that this is the only race that matters this year, and he’s got every chance. I won’t be as upset missing him now, as his price has fairly shortened, but I’ve not really made up my mind.
That shortlist of mine hasn’t came down much, with only Domaine De L’Isle missing. I could see me having four in this, but ideally I’d be happier with three.
I’ve decided, reluctantly to leave out Fantastikas, and I’m hoping that Fidux gives it a miss, buts that’s offset by the fact I really like Chiciro Vallis now, though as I said on the Bet365 Gold Cup thread, I’d love him to go there. (Both jocked up now)
Total headache but I’ve bet two early, Major Dundee, sadly not at 40’s, and Hill Sixteen. I’ll definitely be adding Vintage Clouds EW after Final Decs. If I do add another, or more I’ll probably keep it to myself, as I might be trading in running all over the place.
Fidux 40’s Ew 7 Places
Hill Sixteen 25’s
Major Dundee 16’s
Vintage Clouds 33’s EW 7 PlacesReluctantly went with the four here. Turned into a bigger betting race than I really wanted, but with an early shortlist like that, it was always a possibility. I’ll definitely look to get it back in running, and maybe a chance to get some of Dundee back even before the off.
Fantastikas, The Ferry Master, and Chirico Vallis, all look much big dangers.
I reckon thatt Emmmet Mullins Rightplacerightime has got to have a
decent shout. He’s bee running in decent races in Ireland and is
ar the right end of the handicap. Ennett has been clearing up in
big handicaps over here, I reckon tthis is another one he can add
to his list.Rightplacerightime 16/1 Bet365
Declarations 24 remain
“15:35 Ayr – 2 April 2022 – Racecard – Horse Racing – Sporting Life” https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/2022-04-02/ayr/racecard/675567/coral-scottish-grand-national-handicap-chase-grade-3-gbb-race
I suppose that’s the chance you take going for one coming over
from Ireland, Rightplacerightime iss out
I tried to keep away from Cool Mix, that’s why I went with
Rightplacerightime, he’s been a bit of an albatross round
my neck for some time. He’s a big imposing grey, and I love
them, but since 2020 it’s been a case of always the bridesmaid
the bride.Maybe it was meant to happen so rather than hold my head in my
hands if he does get his head in front, I might as well hold my
head in my hands if he gets cuffed again. I know that doesn’t
sound too promising, but I’m sure you’ll know where I’m coming
from.On the plus isde, with Alan Doyle, who’s won twice in the past week,
taking 7 lbs off, he’s never carried as little weight, so maybe this
is his moment. Maybe
Cool Mix 14/1 Betfred (still available at Ladbrokes/Corals)
Just finished plougihng through the numerous handicaps the this weekend throws up and have the following figures for the Scottish National:
158 Fantastikas
158 Fidux
157 Vintage Clouds
157 Court Master
155 Ask a Honey Bee
154 Chirico Vallis
154 History Of Fashion
152 Hill SixteenLooking for something that’s won over at least 3m 2f (preferably further), has run well in a big field and will handle a bit of cut (some showers so Good To Soft most likely). Struggling to find anything that exactly fits the criteria, but the nearest are:
Vintage Clouds 33/1 e/w 1/5 odds 6 places – Plenty of decent staying chase form, a bit in and out of late but worth a chance at the price.
Hill Sixteen 20/1 e/w 1/5 odds 6 places – Stays well and right in this on his Aintree run behind Snow Leopardess in the Becher and a fine effort at Kelso last time.
So, with 24 remaining, i’ve just took a look at the movers in the betting, compared to their prices on Sunday.
Major Dundee 25s with Bet365 on Sunday eve, now at 9s, although some 12s still avail.
Stormy Judge 20s with Bet365 on Sunday eve, now 9s – some 10s still avail
Jersey Bean 25s a few days ago, generally 16s, with some 18s avail
There will be others, but these 3 seem the stand out movers to me.
My main hope here is The Ferry Master. 10-1 looks like a fair price to me though I do have just very slight reservations on the way he finished last year, as already mentioned by Bob and hdlg.
The one who was a really tempting price to me was El Paso Wood, and I took him at 66-1 ew to 7 plcs
Couple of observations regarding a few of the market principles on my part, I haven’t nailed my colours to a mast as yet going to wait and see what happens with the weather over the next 24 hrs but I can see myself staying away from the front of the market.
Kittys Light – concerned about the weight over the distance, particularly if the ground starts on the softer side. if you think back to when this one was winning his races last year he had a 4 year old allowance for 2020 and then Jack Tudor was still a claimer so he’s never really had to shoulder much over 11 stone for most of his chasing career. Maybe because he was only 4 and then turned 5 last season I always thought he looked very small for a staying chaser, perhaps he’s grown a bit this season but I’d be concerned. This looks a really low class affair for a Scottish National, nothing rated over 150 and I think that’s going to cause some issues for Kittys Light here re the weight and his physical makeup.
Win My Wings – liked her but surely Ryan Mania got to choose who he rode? Seems to me he’s picked The Ferry Master. Could be wrong. Will the headgear have the desired effect 2nd time round? Inclined to believe she’s a progressive stayer myself and the headgear wasn’t the key last time but the trip was. Still put off by the jockey situation.
Stormy Judge – The ground….. just looks a mudlark albeit a very well handicapped one. Probably goes off favourite if they get plenty of rain.
The Ferry Master – weak finisher, not just last years race but I suspect if you go through his last 6 runs or so he’s gone odds on in running every time. Has he got the heart to win this? Has he got the stamina more importantly. I like the jockey and the wind op may work the oracle 2nd time up, I believe this tends to be the pattern. Very well handicapped on last years renewal.
The Wolf – dodgy jumper, will stay and probably run on past beaten horses but unless the jumping holds up he’ll get too far back. Another well handicapped one I’ve been following most of the season but he should have won at least once this season and he hasn’t because he’s made blunders at key stages in races. Imagine the scenes in the McNeill households if this one wins here and Escaria Ten goes off favourite at Aintree.
Major Dundee – I’m only really drawn to him being a novice, trained by Alan King and runs in the Hemmings colours. Nothing in the form but he’s interesting up in trip. Could see myself backing him at the right price but suspect by the time I come to it he’ll be too short, can see all the pundits latching on to him re his profile.
History Of Fashion – eye catching last time but has the obvious unseat at Newcastle on his CV in his most competitive race he’s run in.
Couldn’t have Fantastikas myself looks like he had a hard enough race in the Ultima where I half fancied him and Ayr is much earlier in the calendar this year, gap back to Cheltenham much closer than normal.
Of the others Jersey Bean strikes me as one who’ll appreciate the trip but whether he’s got enough in hand off his mark I’m not so sure. Also not sure if he’s been laid out for this or he’s had a setback, its a long enough break. One who wants the rain to stay away too. He really seemed to thrive for the stamina test at Haydock last time.
At a stretch I could make half a case for One More Fleurie in that he was very impressive on the card last year over 3M and probably hasn’t had his ground all season and has seen his mark drop on unsuitable ground in very strong races but he might not get his ground here either if it rains enough. Saying that he ran in the Ultima as well and I guess if I don’t fancy Fantastikas on that basis I should apply the same rule here. He’ll pop up sometime over the coming months when he gets quick ground.
Something about Ask A Honey Bee, can’t put my finger on what yet but he just wasn’t one I was prepared to write off under an extreme stamina test which I think could suit him. I suppose he’s another novice I think we haven’t seen the best of yet and similar comments applied to Ashtown Lad but I didn’t think he looked like he wanted the trip on what I’ve seen. He’s got more blemishes on his CV than Major Dundee but he’ll probably be a much bigger price as a result and in reality they are both novices taking on 3M+ for the first time over fences.
I can see Cool Mix running well but he’s one I’ve backed a few times and he tends to run his race but find at least one better on the day, maybe the tongue tie will help him there but I’d be surprised if its taken them 19 chase starts to realise he needs one so it might be more hope than expectation.
My three against the field (ew) are Win My Wings, Major Dundee and El Paso Wood.
I have never backed the winner of the Scottish National.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Ask A Honey Bee for me.
O’Brien doesn’t send them up here for the craic- 5 wins frm 10. This is obviously a completely different kettle of fish to the 5 winners he’s had here.
Will like the good ground and this trip i suspect is just what he wants.
Hoping the big field will actually help him, but it’s an unknown.
Had been tempted to back Stormy Judge but kept coming back to his form on heavier ground, missed that price and the rest is history. lol.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The usual mob handed, from me, for Saturday’s big race.
As advised a few days ago
Stormy Judge at 20s
Major Dundee at 25sJust added One More Fleurie at 25s (365 free bet)
Added each way Mulholland’s Chirico Vallis, paying 7 places (365). I had a nice e/w pick up on him at Warwick at a big price, and as my niece rides out there for NM i cannot ignore him.
Best of luck to all
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