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Small matter of Aintree to get out of the way first of all, and that race will obviously have a major impact on the final line up here, but no harm in taking an early look, with entries out, and several firms pricing up…..
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/3/ayr/2019-04-13/724161
Selective look at this stage then, and although the entries look down on the last couple of years, it doesn’t look any easier.
Big River – Not a horse who’s totally grabbed me if I’m honest, but his run at Cheltenham in The Ultima was very eyecatching, and it goes without saying that if in the same mood, he could easily figure here, and he shaped as if the trip would be right up his street. Holds an entry for Fairyhouse, but this would appear to be the preference, thought the market hasn’t missed him 16’s
Chidswell – I was really impressed with him at Newcastle last time, and he’s another who you’d have to say will relish this trip. Certainly something of a slow burner, until recently you couldn’t have had him on your mind for something like this, but he’s in the form of his life, and he looks a big player 25’s
Dingo Dollar – Although I’ve bet him for a few prizes this term, this is the certainly the race that looked the most ideal for him, and had him in mind for it for some time. I’m not the least bit concerned with his last couple of runs, including behind Chidswell last time in The Grimthorpe, and there’s a very good chance that the season revolves around this race for him. Ran very well at the meeting last year, and although an obvious one as market leader, he’s shortlist material for me, and with him almost certain to go, that price looks worth taking 14’s
Folsom Blue – Wouldn’t be a marathon race without discussing old Folsom. Bit of a cliche, but this one rings true, he probably needs 6 miles these days. Came from a mile off the pace to finish like a train on his last two runs, and I’m not convinced that he’s done with yet. Travelling like a dream when brought down in this a couple of years back, and although certainly getting on, I can see a big run if he comes here. He certainly has other options 20’s
Geronimo – I really like this horse, and he looks quietly progressive, from a yard who do very well in these marathon chases, and as I’ve said on more than one occasion, a yard who are just a little underrated. He’s got course form, trip looks fine, and having missed a couple of other marathons, just the very real chance that he’s been held back for this 33’s
Give Me A Copper – Shaped very well at Sandown after a layoff, but he would have to go down as a disappointment, when put in his place in The Ultima, falling late on well behind. He’s potentially much much better than that though, and is held in high regards by Paul Nicholls, a trainer who takes this race very seriously. Scratched from Aintree to concentrate on this, and the fact that that ultimately left the yard without a National Runner, may be significant. He has to be bet early, this price will vanish 20’s
Ibis Du Rheu – Another Nicholls runner, and though maybe not as long term a target for this as Dingo Dollar’s been, I’ve had this race in mind for Ibis since the turn of the year. Ignore his Warwick run, January is not the month to judge the yards runners. I prefer to judge him on previous efforts, he was in good form at the start of the year, and perhaps telling that this previous Festival Winner missed the meeting this time around. I think he is absolutely tailor made for this, and with the only concern for me being the weather (I don’t want the rain to come), then he looks a mad mad price to me, and I’d be fairly confident of a big run here 25’s
Impulsive Star – Very impressive winner of The Classic Chase at Warwick, and I’d be forgiving any horse who took in this season NH Chase at Cheltenham. He’s better than that, and I think conditions here would be more to his liking. Yard always worth noting in these big chases, and he looks unlikely to get in at Aintree. My only concern at this stage would be that he looks ideal for the handicap on National Day as well 20’s
Joe Farrell – Game winner of this last year, and it would be a shame if he didn’t get in at Aintree. Their loss could be Ayr’s gain though, and he’d be a welcome addition to the line up here. In good heart, as seen at Newbury at the weekend, and he’s an obvious contender 14’s
Sandymount Duke – A horse who always gets a good word from me, but if I’m being brutally honest, he’s way overdue to back those words up. He’s been disappointing on the whole, not only on the level, but over fences and timber as well, and it’s time to deliver. It’s possible that they don’t quite know what to do with him, and as such, he’s often a very backable price these days. By no means certain to head here, as he rarely runs outwith Ireland, for all he gets plenty of entries over here. The Scottish National is hardly a race which I’d expect to see as priority for Harrington, and bearing in mind her Magic of Light looks more realistic, but still, I just can’t write him off completely, for all I’d struggle to back that up 50’s
Sizing Codelco – Very much like Sandymount, he’s a horse I’m running out of excuses with. Bitterly disappointing on the whole, since his excellent finish to the season in 2017, and it’s safe to say he didn’t get remotely close to the high expectations I had for him. He did, however, look like his former self at Aintree and Uttoxeter last year, and he’s maybe one for the spring weather. I’m maybe clutching at straws here, but although 2 lbs higher this time around, he didn’t actually do too badly in this last year. Very very risky, but that’s factored into the price, and they’re certainly persevering with him, when they have plenty of others they could send here 50’s
The Two Amigos – By no means a spent force when he fell in The National Trial at Haydock, and he was going there on a three timer. No ground concerns, and just as importantly no worries about the trip either. He’s had a good year, and I thought he’d be a decent price here, but the market has him right, and he looks like one who could take a hand 20’s
The Young Master – For a horse who I had down as real National contender, he really did fall away for a while, and he took a while to recapture the spark that seen him land The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. He’s touch and go for Aintree, and if he didn’t get in, he could be a contender here. I’d much prefer to see him back at Sandown, but wherever this reformed character goes, he’s one to take note of, off the back of a very good season 25’s
Plenty to happen between now and then, but these are the ones that jumped out immediately…..
I badly want to bet Geronimo, and as this is a race where I could easily have four, I probably will, but being with three Antepost might be pushing it. It makes more sense to wait with him, as he has been pulled from The Eider, and The Midlands National, and if the price does hold, then I should get better each way terms anyway.
I’ll go with two Antepost though, and at these prices, happy to play early, more than worth the risk.
They both look perfect for it, both look well treated, and most importantly, a very real possibility that both have been laid out for it.
Dingo Dollar 14’s Win
Ibis Du Rheu 25’s Each WayI was going to say focus on Nicholls
you guys have it coveredBlackbeard to conquer the World
King tends to plot this race as he,s a Scot , I’ve fancied dingo dollar for this every since the hennesy , I’m hoping sandymount is at aintree and not here , had 2 great days with this race , grey abbey in the rain and 40-1 Al CO , shouting him home while the people around me stood in silence …. The one other thing I always remember over the 2 days is look for the Anderson green winner ….this is his Cheltenham ..love a winner at this meeting
Forgot to say nicholls and Henderson’s stats aren’t great at this meeting …..thinking of there summer hols , tends to be the bridesmaids rather than the bride’s that make there way up
This market might look different tonight, but I do like one here at a big price.
Shantou Village is 66-1, with only stamina doubts holding me back just now. I also like Kingswell Theatre at a price.
It’s more the supporting races I’m talking about , neither nicholls or Henderson have had a stellar aintree either
Big River looks more than fair at 12s the way he finished in the Ultima
Big River each way at 12/1
I like the look of Crosspark at 25/1. He ran a promising race
in 3rd behind Impulsive Star and Calett Mad in the Warwick Classic Chase before
breaking my heart by just getting his head in front Of Mysteree in the Eider at
the tail end of February. He’ll have to put up a personal best, having been raised
7lbs to a mark of 142 for the win, but I think he looked well at Newcastle, and
Mysteree aside he left the rest for dead. He’s 9 but could be improving having won
3 of his last 5 and been raised 18lbs since last November as a result of improved
form. Currently due to carry a nice 10-8, depending on who all stand their ground.
A lot near the top ran in the big one last week, but I think there’s every chance
that Nicky Henderson will send Beware The Bear, who’s currently top weight, having
been hiked up 9lbs for his fine win in the Ultima (which I was grateful for) last
time out at Cheltenham. Henderson has never won this, and I think he might fancy
his chances of breaking his duck with BTB, who was targeted at this last year.
He has a decent chance, but I’d be happy for him to take his place and keep
Crosspark’s weight down.I was going to wait until he was declared, but I have to go in early on Crosshue Boy here.
20-1 is a nice price for a horse who beat Dingo Dollar at this meeting last year. I am confident he can go close here, and he had a nice prep over hurdles last week. I fancy him enough to bet win, but I will
I’m undecided about Fine Rightly. 66-1 is a lovely price, and I thought he showed a bit in his last run which was here. I have bet him on the nose at 66-1, and also each way with Paddy Power at 50-1, as they are paying 6 places already.
So far so good, with Dingo and Ibis declared.
I’ve added Sizing Codelco each way six places at 50-1. Big ask, and a lifeless run at Cheltenham, but I keep going back to bits of his spring form.
I’ll go four handed in this (hopefully), and I’ll add Geronimo on the day.
Just hope these three run, but not counting my chickens.
Dingo Dollar 14’s Win
Ibis Du Rheu 25’s Each Way
Sizing Codelco 50’s Each Way 6 PlacesChidswell 20/1
Bolted up last time out at Doncaster, staying on nicely at the finish so this step up to 4m will suit even better. Good ground will suit also & like that he’s versatile in position. When you consider Dingo is fav and he smashed him up, don’t see how he’s 20s.
Dingo for me looks like he wants to dictate, be very surprised if he gets allowed that here.Same meeting different race- the J+D Pierce, there has been a confusion over the entries as a lot are not eligible to run. Timeform have updated the race 13 now. Some books haven’t updated, so worth a look for some
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Ibis Du Rheu being kept fresh for this is a good enough sign for me, so I’ve gone in at 20/1. Also played Big River with a view to next year’s National. They’ll likely be my lot assuming The Young Master goes to Sandown instead.
After strongly fancying Vintage Clouds for the national I have had go in again at the 12/1 available. (from 16/1 ) Willtop up if making final decs
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