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If I’d backed Old Benny, I’d be disappointed to see Richard Johnson booked on the horse rather than Charlie Huxley who rode him at Cheltenham. Particularly with him being slightly out of the weights.
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how on earth is halcon genarlardais ment to win off a mark of 169?
If he’s only 9l inferior to Kauto Star, then surely he should win it doing handsprings???
(But I doubt it
– Miko de Beauchene for me )I reckon he’s got every chance of defying top-weight. He looks likely to have his favoured conditions and most of the field will be out of the weights. He’s top class in the mud at distance as his Welsh National run showed.
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Carv
He’s carrying the same weight as the Welsh National, over 3f further and on slower ground. Top weights may perform well in this race, but not on heavy ground.
Top class handicapper he may be; 169 horse I sincerely doubt?- Total Posts 438
Halcon Genelardais looked to be outstayed, ultimately, by Miko de Beauchene at Chepstow. Of course the mistake at the last didn’t help, but the Alner runner was finishing by far the better of the two. In the Whitbread, granted similar conditions, I’d have fancied the top weight to reverse the form but, as Reet points out, the extra distance and slower ground must tip things in Miko’s favour.
I wouldn’t agree with Reet, however, when he says that Halcon isn’t a 169 horse- his Welsh National effort deserves such a rating and he ran well, on ground which wasn’t soft enough, in the Gold Cup- but I don’t think that Saturday’s test will enable him to justify his lofty rating. I’d rather be on Alan King’s other runner, Old Benny, even though Choc sticks with Halcon.
Does his Welsh National run really deserve a 169 rating? The BHA assessor didn’t think so, he put him up to 165. He was put up to 169 after the Gold Cup so Phil Smith could rate Denman 185. Smith would be very much in the minority in thinking Halcon Genelardais showed improved form in the Gold Cup.
He meets a couple of horses in Opera Mundi and Miko de Beauchene that I’ll be astounded if he can concede the weight to that pair that he’s been set, even under his optimum conditions.
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Does his Welsh National run really deserve a 169 rating?
There’s an argument that he could have been rated even higher, based on the runs of Over The Creek, Naunton Brook and Geeveem. There’s little doubt that that run represents a personal best for Halcon Genelardais.
The BHA assessor didn’t think so, he put him up to 165. He was put up to 169 after the Gold Cup so Phil Smith could rate Denman 185. Smith would be very much in the minority in thinking Halcon Genelardais showed improved form in the Gold Cup.
That is the problem; the official handicapper had to boost the Gold Cup ratings in order to award Denman superstar status. That matter has been discussed to death before.
He meets a couple of horses in Opera Mundi and Miko de Beauchene that I’ll be astounded if he can concede the weight to that pair that he’s been set, even under his optimum conditions.
Even though he nearly gave Miko even more weight at Chepstow and may well have won that day but for that mistake at the last?
There’s little doubt that that run represents a personal best for Halcon Genelardais.
For me therein lies the problem when Miko de Beauchene showed better form subsequently at Haydock with the likelihood of more still to come. That’s why even though he’s worse off at Ayr than Chepstow, I think Miko will finish infront of him again.
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I think Miko will finish infront of him again.
So do I, as you’ll see if you read my post at 0743 this morning.
Probably no chance of it happening, but would love to see Ossmoses win this on. Would also be good to see McCoy win after his accident; the guy has so gone up in my estimation recently.
Hello,
Looks as if Newbay Prop is destined for an Irish race.
There is a definite move for KILBEGGAN BLADE, and I have treated myself with 25/1…now left only with Hills and VC….
regards,
doyley
Well the dark horse of the race creeps in at the bottom of the list. IN THE LOOP may not seem the most likely winner on paper and the truth is he probably won’t win but he interests me from a pedigree perspective as this fellow is closely related to a previous winner, Belmont King via Belmont King’s dam the beautifully named The Potwalluper.
The Potwalluper; how superb. good old Belmont King; thats going to be me soon; an old dear watching me horses on the telly; whatever happened to Belmont King and his owner?
I like the improving profile of Old Bennie, too, and I believe the race he won at Cheltenham has proved a good indicator of the likely winner of this.
However, the outsider who interests me is Royal Rosa at 66/1. Even taking into account how far he is out of the handicap, IF I remember correctly he’s about 12 lbs well in, and over 4+ miles that’s a fair amount.
Obviously, he has been a very classy individual and likewise injury-prone. Last race in on 23 Feb this year wasn’t bad, 3 races before that, on 1st Dec last year, he returned a speed figure of 134, again at Newcastle, on a h’cap mark of 128, but in 2005 he was on a hurdle mark of 152.
In the next year 2006, he thrashed L’Antartique in a slow time in a class 2 novice chase.
Heck he may not even run, but he looks a value speculative bet at those odds – as, I might remind you good folk, I suggested 95/1 for Twice Over in the 2000 Guineas looked worth risking a small amount on. Wish I’d had a little to place on it now, too.
If the ground still has the word Soft in it then I think Philson Run is a cracking EW bet at 20/1, very lightly raced for a 12 year old, proven over the distance and didn’t have too hard a race LTO. The other interesting one for me is Leading Man at 20/1 who stayed on well LTO over 4M at Doncaster and seems to go well on most types of gound.
– Miko de Beauchene for me )
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