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when is this race this year? i heard nine de sivola is running again but hot weld will not be running due to bruised foot not healing
I’m thinking Merigo is a likely horse for this, what with his past Ayr runs, but I haven’t had a bet yet because I’m waiting for the price to get bigger.
Also Brooklyn Brownie, but I’m allowing KC to get the best prices first.
This is a tricky time of year for me on the NH. I don’t think I’ve ever had the winner of the Irish National, though I’ve only ever had about half-a-dozen bets. The last winner of the Scottish National that I backed was I think Sebastian V. As to the Whitbread, I think it was Strombolus, if indeed he actually won the race.
I find these staying races at this time of year a bit easier than say the welsh national! Grey Abbey, Halcon Genelardais, Nine De Sivola, Parsons Legacy…had all these each way in Scottish National in recent times.
I dont bet on Irish racing much as dont know great deal about it. For this year I think Nine De Sivola again, although not sure who is running and wont bet until the day of teh race.
I feel a bit surprised to see Chief Dan George as favourite for this race; he’s been one of my favourite horses for the past few years, so I hope he does well, but I could never see him either being a novice chaser or running on firmer ground.
Charachter Building will surely start fav if he makes it.
Would depend on the ground I’d have thought. He ran like a drain on fast-ish ground the other year IIRC.
There’s a saying in Ayrshire Scotland Friggo. "If you can see the Isle of Craig it’s going to rain and if you can’t see it it’s already raining"
He has won on good/firm but looking at his forma bit of cut would be preferred. Then again he could have gone for the Irish National if it was a major concern so obviously John Quinn thinks it’s not.
Long way off yet and he’s got to get there first.
There’s a saying in Ayrshire Scotland Friggo. "If you can see the Isle of Craig it’s going to rain and if you can’t see it it’s already raining"
That’s a fallacy, Fist. The more accurate idiom in the West of Scotland is simply "it’s raining".
He has won on good/firm but looking at his forma bit of cut would be preferred. Then again he could have gone for the Irish National if it was a major concern so obviously John Quinn thinks it’s not.
Although your assertion isn’t out of the question by any means, from what I hear I’d have thought a campaign geared at the 2010 Grand National may now be John Quinn’s first choice for Character Building if conditions at Ayr aren’t ideal.
Okay, I know its not the end of the NH season, and that there will be Summer Nationals at the like of Stratford and Market Rasen, but I thought I’d give you all a laugh by publishing my portfolio for the Scottish National, as I’ve stopped betting in it. I didn’t do any form studying, but I have bet in every major staying h’cap chase since the Hennessy.
Some of the prices are bad, in the sense that you can still get them bigger on betfair, but I don’t mind.
£20 @ 8.6 Chief Dan George
£21 @ 11.81 Merigo
£5 @ 38 Brooklyn Brownie
£13 @ 157.69 The Market Man
£5 @ 75 Golden Flight
£5 @ 69 Coe
£2 @ 92.5 Sherwoods Folly
£4 @ 70 Sea Diva
£21 on withdrawalsThe Market Man also has an entry for the 3m1f Novices’ H’cap Chase 5.05 Ayr, but I think he is top weight for that.
It’ll be funny watching L’Aventure and Sea Diva both trying to be last for 99% of the race [after you, no, after you….]! However, as The Chief has been one of my favourite horses for a few years I’d love him to win this one, so may not burden him with my pennies.
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Right! My fourth favourite race of the year after the Grand National, NH Chase and the Hexham four miler run every March.
Some stats that may help you whittle down the field are, as is always the case with me, pedigree based.
The following sires’ progeny have failed to record a win over four miles and have had over ten attempts.
Accordion
Sound Accord
According To JohnPresenting
Brooklyn Brownie
Coe
Out The BlackLord Americo
Lord Americo has only ever sired one winner over four miles and that was in a very low graded affair at Stratford. In races of Class 3 (or C) and above he has never had a winner over the distance and over twenty have now tried, and he can be found in.
Chief Dan George
West End RockerAs a sire in his own right
Phardante
also had an appalling record over four miles and he can be found in the following.
Sound Accord (he’s not having much luck is he)
Coe (neither’s he)
Wild Cane RidgeI like Gone To Lunch because his damsire, Space King, is not seen in pedigrees very often (hardly ever nowadays) but this stallions moment of glory actually came in this very race in 1981 when Astral Charmer won and although I like both him and Tricky Trickster it is asking quite a lot to ask a novice to win such a competitive race off a mark of 148/149. It’s almost asking them to be Gold Cup class. That said however, I must back Tricky Trickster because when I find anything with Menelek in them, in a National, then I
usually
have to back them (Menelek was sire of “National” winners Quick Reply, Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy and found in four mile winners Moorcroft Boy, McKelvey and Supreme Glory to name but a few) but that’s where I come a bit of a cropper too because he can also be found in Sound Accord and Wild Cane Ridge but the positive is outweighed by the negatives with these two…..you wait they’ll finish 1st and 2nd. However, Roselier (Wild Cane Ridge’s sire) has sired the winner of this race three times so perhaps I might relent with him given his very low mark but only £2!
My local National, the Kent National, is proving to be quite a stepping stone for future success with Iris De Balme winning at Folkestone before impressively winning at Ayr and now Russian Trigger is looking to add this to both his Folkestone and Uttoxeter successes this season. I’m sure the handicapper thinks he’s got him now as RT has not exactly been doing his winning on the bridle but he does keep finding and he is only seven so there could conceivably be more to come from him.
Of the French breds I can’t have either King Barry or Lacdoudal, again because after quite some research, their sire has an appalling record over four miles – Cadoudal has done better at producing stallions that can produce stayers like Kadalko rather than as a sire of four milers himself.
The two Pistolet Bleu horses are quite interesting. Pistolet Bleu is by Top Ville who also produced Un Desperado a sire of two Eider winners. You’d have to side with Merigo of the two because he proved himself over the trip in the Eider but as we thought at the time, it was a very poor renewal this year. On all known form I can’t see how Merigo can win this off an 8lb higher mark. He would have to improve a lot for the quicker surface but I suppose he may well do but he’s not for me. Top Ville is also the damsire of Sea Diva but like moe & Gerry I got on a triple figure odds but only a small wager as the ground may prove her undoing.
………….more will follow in the next day or two (yawn).
I’m trying to find a little solace here KC.
On Good ground, how much more likely is a "non 4m stayer" to win this race?
Gerald
PS
Although the vast majority of Sea Diva’s races have been on softish ground, she has done okay the few occasions when running on Good ground.
She came third to Arbor Supreme and Black Apalachi on good ground, and has been improving with every race…..seems to be staying on better than anything at the end of her races but without a turn of foot to win; most mares get better in the spring, and hopefully Notre Pere won’t run. 40/1 for a place seems pretty good to me. [however, what is good Oirish ground?]
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