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Scoop6 bonus race strategy

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  • #3177
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    I was the majority shareholder in a syndicate that got the Scoop6 up on Saturday but, like most punters who have backed a winner, was still gutted – not because I didn’t have enough on but because Inchnadamph, a 25-1 shot and one of my Cesarewitch inclusions, didn’t get the better of Detroit City, the poxy 4-1 favourite.

    I’m one of 64 tickets in with a shout of the bonus fund this Saturday. I’m guessing that the race in question will be a tricky 16-runner handicap at Lingfield or a 20-runner 2yo race at Newbury but what strategy should I adopt?

    1) Pick the favourite and lay it on the exchanges to guarantee me a few quid.

    2) Go for an outsider and hope no one else picks it.

    3) Just study the race as normal and go with my selection.

    4) Go for something in the mid-price range in the hope that the other ticket holders will go for fav/second fav or an outsider.

    5) Ask the wife to pick a number between 1 and 16.

    6) none of the above.

    I hear that Harry Findlay has 12 of the 64 tickets (apparently he made a loss on his not inconsiderable investment) and that Dave Nevison has two (he stated in his Racing & Football Outlook column that he’d go with two outsiders). Help!

    #80417
    betlarge
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2668

    Mountster

    Get quietly caned:cool:  and let your hands hover slowly over the decs.  Find your inner peace.  Let your Sutra become calmer.  The selection will present itself to you in a green, hazy light.  All will become clear.

    Or try the wife.

    BTW, just 7 layers at Waz last Friday including yer man at pick 2 and Hills & AK on the rails.  Sign of the times.

    Mike

    #80418
    Mug Punter
    Member
    • Total Posts 27

    Just go with the method that picked you the 6 winners on Saturday. Definitely don’t go for option 5.

    #80419
    jilly
    Member
    • Total Posts 608

    What an awful problem to have,Mounty.Life can be so cruel :(   Don’t worry,if you don’t win the bonus we’ll all have a whip-round for you ;)

    #80420
    jackane24
    Member
    • Total Posts 444

    Mounty, pick the horse you would do if it were a normal Saturday. Does it matter if it happens to be the favourite? Even if half the people win the fund, share it out between the syndicates, and you still get majority of the share.

    #80421
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Cross out the favourite then study the form:biggrin: .

    It really depends what the money means to you and what you want to win. If you are happy to share with 30 other people then go for one you like at the head of the market. If you want to go all or nothing then look for a lively outsider. I’d be inclined to go for a 10/1 shot or something like that though I would study the form to come up with it. But as I say, it depends how much money you want to win. Remember me if you win it:biggrin:

    #80422
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    Mounty,<br>Just hope and pray there is a trend horse in the selected race!<br>Nothing to worry about except where to invest the winnings!

    #80423
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Depends on your current bank balance. There really is no optimum strategy, it’s just practicalities. Pity you don’t know what the others are doing.

    If your means are normal,  back the horse that you would if your life depended on backing the winner. That leaves out the longshots, so concentrate on the first two or three in the market and trust to your judgement and of course, luck. Losing will be like dropping £20,000.

    If you are very wealthy, there is no doubt the outsiders are the best option, because you have very little(relatively) to lose.

    #80424
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    Thanks for the advice. Will probably just study the race without looking at any prices, come up with a shortlist of three or four and then go for the biggest price one on the day. Will let you know how it goes.

    Cheers<br>Mounty

    #80425
    rory
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2685

    It’s not hard to second guess what the others will do, especially as there is bound to be a fair degree of collusion going on. For a 30% cut I can find out what "The Dog" is doing if you like. Deal?

    #80426
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    Dear Noel Edmonds (Rory)….no deal!

    #80427
    Perpetual
    Participant
    • Total Posts 432

    What have you gone for Mounty?

    #80428
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    I’m in the IPA tent at Newbury – still haven’t phoned in my selection but have formulated a plan….

    I fancy Short Skirt, Mountain and Foxhaven. Will probably go for Short Skirt then, once I know who many tickets are on it (perhaps 10 max?) I’ll lay it – perhaps taking £1000 out of it. I’ll then bet the other two with the grand I stand to win if Short Skirt gets beat – say £800 on Mountain, £200 on Foxhaven.

    Just time for another Stella.

    Cheers<br>Mounty

    #80429
    Alderbrook
    Member
    • Total Posts 349

    Aye.  Beers on Mounty?

    #80430
    Perpetual
    Participant
    • Total Posts 432

    Hope the Stella’s didn’t affect your judgement…

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