October 17, 2006 at 18:58 #3177
I was the majority shareholder in a syndicate that got the Scoop6 up on Saturday but, like most punters who have backed a winner, was still gutted – not because I didn’t have enough on but because Inchnadamph, a 25-1 shot and one of my Cesarewitch inclusions, didn’t get the better of Detroit City, the poxy 4-1 favourite.
I’m one of 64 tickets in with a shout of the bonus fund this Saturday. I’m guessing that the race in question will be a tricky 16-runner handicap at Lingfield or a 20-runner 2yo race at Newbury but what strategy should I adopt?
1) Pick the favourite and lay it on the exchanges to guarantee me a few quid.
2) Go for an outsider and hope no one else picks it.
3) Just study the race as normal and go with my selection.
4) Go for something in the mid-price range in the hope that the other ticket holders will go for fav/second fav or an outsider.
5) Ask the wife to pick a number between 1 and 16.
6) none of the above.
I hear that Harry Findlay has 12 of the 64 tickets (apparently he made a loss on his not inconsiderable investment) and that Dave Nevison has two (he stated in his Racing & Football Outlook column that he’d go with two outsiders). Help!October 17, 2006 at 21:17 #80417betlargeParticipant
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Get quietly caned:cool: and let your hands hover slowly over the decs. Find your inner peace. Let your Sutra become calmer. The selection will present itself to you in a green, hazy light. All will become clear.
Or try the wife.
BTW, just 7 layers at Waz last Friday including yer man at pick 2 and Hills & AK on the rails. Sign of the times.
MikeOctober 17, 2006 at 22:04 #80418Mug PunterMember
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Just go with the method that picked you the 6 winners on Saturday. Definitely don’t go for option 5.October 17, 2006 at 22:37 #80419jillyMember
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What an awful problem to have,Mounty.Life can be so cruel :( Don’t worry,if you don’t win the bonus we’ll all have a whip-round for you ;)October 17, 2006 at 22:43 #80420jackane24Member
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Mounty, pick the horse you would do if it were a normal Saturday. Does it matter if it happens to be the favourite? Even if half the people win the fund, share it out between the syndicates, and you still get majority of the share.October 17, 2006 at 22:57 #80421FlatSeasonLoverMember
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Cross out the favourite then study the form:biggrin: .
It really depends what the money means to you and what you want to win. If you are happy to share with 30 other people then go for one you like at the head of the market. If you want to go all or nothing then look for a lively outsider. I’d be inclined to go for a 10/1 shot or something like that though I would study the form to come up with it. But as I say, it depends how much money you want to win. Remember me if you win it:biggrin:October 18, 2006 at 09:25 #80422SeagullMember
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Mounty,<br>Just hope and pray there is a trend horse in the selected race!<br>Nothing to worry about except where to invest the winnings!October 18, 2006 at 18:51 #80423ArtemisParticipant
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Depends on your current bank balance. There really is no optimum strategy, it’s just practicalities. Pity you don’t know what the others are doing.
If your means are normal, back the horse that you would if your life depended on backing the winner. That leaves out the longshots, so concentrate on the first two or three in the market and trust to your judgement and of course, luck. Losing will be like dropping Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£20,000.
If you are very wealthy, there is no doubt the outsiders are the best option, because you have very little(relatively) to lose.October 18, 2006 at 19:32 #80424
Thanks for the advice. Will probably just study the race without looking at any prices, come up with a shortlist of three or four and then go for the biggest price one on the day. Will let you know how it goes.
Cheers<br>MountyOctober 18, 2006 at 19:45 #80425roryParticipant
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It’s not hard to second guess what the others will do, especially as there is bound to be a fair degree of collusion going on. For a 30% cut I can find out what "The Dog" is doing if you like. Deal?October 19, 2006 at 07:04 #80426
Dear Noel Edmonds (Rory)….no deal!October 21, 2006 at 11:09 #80427PerpetualParticipant
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What have you gone for Mounty?October 21, 2006 at 12:10 #80428
I’m in the IPA tent at Newbury – still haven’t phoned in my selection but have formulated a plan….
I fancy Short Skirt, Mountain and Foxhaven. Will probably go for Short Skirt then, once I know who many tickets are on it (perhaps 10 max?) I’ll lay it – perhaps taking Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£1000 out of it. I’ll then bet the other two with the grand I stand to win if Short Skirt gets beat – say Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£800 on Mountain, Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£200 on Foxhaven.
Just time for another Stella.
Cheers<br>MountyOctober 21, 2006 at 13:47 #80429AlderbrookMember
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Aye. Beers on Mounty?October 21, 2006 at 14:15 #80430PerpetualParticipant
- Total Posts 432
Hope the Stella’s didn’t affect your judgement…
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