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The ground apparently is Good at Sandown today so i am thinking they will go a good clip in this,these fences will test all but if this field are genuine top class chasers in the making they will have to respond to the challenge.My selection is currently 8th of the 9 runners in the betting and i for one cant see him finishing out of the 1st 3. REVE De SIVOLA is 12/1 and is a proper Grade 1 horse he may have been well beaten by Medermit last time out but i think he will be right there on this occassion,obviously his jumping can be a bit slow at times but he really does have everything else you would expect from a Grade 1 winner.I am amazed he is the price he is and have backed him at 14/1,e/w of course.
Medermit 10/1 for the Arkle with Fred Done!
Really good performance. Jumped well, travelled well and idled on the run-in. Better than distances suggest. I know he’s in the new 2 1/2 mile race, but that is grade 2. Presume he’d get a penalty for winning a grade 1. If he were a certain runner in the Arkle he’d be 4/1 fav. I think he’s almost certain to go for the better race.
Get on!
Value Is EverythingMedermit now only 8/1 BP with Stan James and Boylesports. Still great value.
Value Is Everything
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How can you make such a ridiculous statement?
If he should be 4/1 fav he’d be a certain runner something Alan King clearly isn’t willing to commit to.
He’s won a second rate Grade 1 today against a horse who couldn’t strike a blow against Gizao who was giving him 10lbs.
The 3rd horse was Nicky Henderson’r 2nd string and he wouldn’t get within a fence of Finian’s Rainbow.
I’d want 10/1 about him running in the Arkle, looks blatantly clear he’s been running over longer trips because Alan King knows he’s up against it and thinking his best option is the Jewson.
The value IMO is Finian’s Rainbow because he’ll win the Arkle. In fact I reckon he’s the best value of the entire meeting. Horse should be 7/4 at best as there is only one danger to him and it isn’t Medermit.
You say you’d want 10/1 about Medermit running in the Arkle yet you lambaste Ginger for making a "ridiculous statement"?!
Are you for real?!I’d say it’s something more like 50-50 what race he runs in.
I thought Medermit was very impressive, and considering the horse looked like he was tiring towards the end, a strongly ran 2 miles should be his ideal trip, no? I personally do not know what Alan King has to think about. I got on him at 20s so it may be tinted vIsion!
The Arkle entry looks relatively poor but even so I would argue strongly against suggesting that a horse who has only beaten a handful of rivals is the best value of the Festival. Nobody knows what will happen when his jumping is put under pressure and for that reason alone he is no value. Even if the jumping holds he didn’t achieve enough over hurdles to suggest he is a class above the opposition he is likely to face.
As for Medermit given his peculiar performance in the Champion Hurdle where he appeared to go from travelling to nothing in a few strides I wouldn’t be rushing to back him in the Arkle either.
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Medermit 10/1 for the Arkle with Fred Done!
Really good performance. Jumped well, travelled well and idled on the run-in. Better than distances suggest. I know he’s in the new 2 1/2 mile race, but that is grade 2. Presume he’d get a penalty for winning a grade 1. If he were a certain runner in the Arkle he’d be 4/1 fav. I think he’s almost certain to go for the better race.
Get on!
Good luck with that Ginger, though I feel you might need it.
Though I’d backed Medermit today, he’s always been a horse that lacks a real change of gear, and I really think he would have lost it in a few more strides. Nothing to do with stamina either, as he stayed further lto on a stiffer track, only to get outsped by Hell’s Bay, before coming back at the line.
I’ll be amazed if he even features in the Arkle, and it would need a real aggressive ride for him to be a force in the new Novice.
All imo, of course.How can you make such a ridiculous statement?
If he should be 4/1 fav he’d be a certain runner something Alan King clearly isn’t willing to commit to.
He’s won a second rate Grade 1 today against a horse who couldn’t strike a blow against Gizao who was giving him 10lbs.
The 3rd horse was Nicky Henderson’r 2nd string and he wouldn’t get within a fence of Finian’s Rainbow.
I’d want 10/1 about him running in the Arkle, looks blatantly clear he’s been running over longer trips because Alan King knows he’s up against it and thinking his best option is the Jewson.
The value IMO is Finian’s Rainbow because he’ll win the Arkle. In fact I reckon he’s the best value of the entire meeting. Horse should be 7/4 at best as there is only one danger to him and it isn’t Medermit.
Finians Rainbow will be a big danger Fist. Medermit is no certainty, just in my opinion great value at 10/1 or 8/1. I’d make him (at the moment) about a 17% chance (around 5/1) of winning if he were certain to run (with a bookies mark up 4/1).
Alan King said in his own mind he knows what race Medermit should go for. Just wants to talk to Choc (and probably owner too).
If Medermit goes for the "easier option" it is questionable if it would be the easier option, having to carry a penalty. Add to that the fact an Arkle winner needs quite a bit of stamina anyway (My Way De Solzen, Tidal Bay other winners). Travelled so well today and his hurdles record, strongly suggests will be equally effective in a fast run Arkle.Medermit’s good second to Khyber Kim in the Greatwood Hurdle suggests he is at home at Cheltenham. Gave Twister’s horse 3lbs and beaten 3 lengths. Possible KM has improved since, but even so a good performance. His poor Champion Hurdle showing has to be put in to context. Medermit did well last year compared to many of his stable companions in 2010/11. Alan King had a very poor season,and in my opinion the run should be overlooked. As should the running out first time up this term. We know Medermit usually finds quite a bit under pressure.
Don’t know how you can say this was a substandard Grade 1 Fist. Mr Gardener was fairly well fancied, despite being second string. A fascile winner (by 32 lengths) on his only chase start. Built to do so much better over the larger obstacles. Hidden Keel, Rock Noir and Nadia De La Vega other impressive last time out winners. Cois Forraig a grade 2 winner as the outsider, Reve De Sivola with potential to improve (albeit at longer trips), Captain Chris who’d jumped markedly right last time at Cheltenham was bound to be more suited by a right-handed Sandown. Who, at the beginning of the season, was on everyone’s short-list of novices to follow. Added to that the two market leaders came 7 lengths clear…
Of course he will still have to improve to win an Arkle, but he’s done a hell of a lot more than beating trees, like Finians Rainbow has done. Well, may be Hells Bay is no tree, but is best at Cheltenham. He’s beaten a total of 6 horses in two races, yet should be 7/4?
By saying Medermit is value at 10/1 and 8/1, means he should be shorter. He is now 7/1 best price, and I expect him to be lower in a few days time.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Hell’s Bay? Finian’s Rainbow made him look like a tree leaving him 12 lengths in his wake without breaking sweat, just before he stuffed Medermit getting only 4lbs
And what shyte you talking about Hell’s Bay being best at Cheltenham he’s ran there 4 times in his life and won 1 race. Absolutely no way can you say he needs to run there to be at his best.If common sense would prevail it would tell you that Captain Chris has been slow to learn and is improving all the time. His 14/1 is much better value than Medermiit at 7/1 if you want to take a risk.
As far as I’m concerened I’m of the opinion they won’t get Finian’s Rainbow off the bridle and he’ll go right to the top…..You only need to look at him and the way he carries himself to realise he’s a class act.
Medermit has failed at every trun when the chips are down and he’s not the type to be improving.
People who start brining horses into a debate that finished a fence behind saying he was in the race like you are doing are deperados looking to qualify what they are saying.
The 3rd and 4th were moderate Captan Chris was stuffed by the second fav for the Arkle, Gizao and everything points to the top 2 in the betting being the top 2 in the race.
If you think 7/1 about a horse who may not run, looks booked at best for 3rd place is value then gawd help you mate.
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You say you’d want 10/1 about Medermit running in the Arkle yet you lambaste Ginger for making a "ridiculous statement"?!
Are you for real?!I’d say it’s something more like 50-50 what race he runs in.
It was a figure of speech…….anyone who tells me in one breath a horse is value and in the next tell me it’s no good thing needs their head examined.
The very fact Alan King is swithering has got to tell you he thinks he’s up against it in the Arkle.
Medemit is a nice horse but he simply lacks the toe to win a race like the Arkle. Obviously he won’t commit himse;f but if Finian’s Rainbow put up another good display in the Pendil Mr King will run for the (Jewson) hills IMO.
So yes I would want a big price about him taking part.
Medermit heading for the Arkle, the right decision imo. He was not far off top class over hurdles and has taken well to fences. The thing is with Gizao and Finians Rainbow we are taking a chance on their ability to compete at the top level, whereas with Medermit he has proven himself to possess bags of ability.
Finians Rainbow has bags of potential and to be honest I think I’d sooner side with him than Gizao but I couldn’t put anyone off backing Medermit at any rate. Wouldn’t rule out Realt Dubh either, he travels and he should see the trip out well.
Hell’s Bay? Finian’s Rainbow made him look like a tree leaving him 12 lengths in his wake without breaking sweat, just before he stuffed Medermit getting only 4lbs
And what shyte you talking about Hell’s Bay being best at Cheltenham he’s ran there 4 times in his life and won 1 race. Absolutely no way can you say he needs to run there to be at his best.If common sense would prevail it would tell you that Captain Chris has been slow to learn and is improving all the time. His 14/1 is much better value than Medermiit at 7/1 if you want to take a risk.
As far as I’m concerened I’m of the opinion they won’t get Finian’s Rainbow off the bridle and he’ll go right to the top…..You only need to look at him and the way he carries himself to realise he’s a class act.
Medermit has failed at every trun when the chips are down and he’s not the type to be improving.
People who start brining horses into a debate that finished a fence behind saying he was in the race like you are doing are deperados looking to qualify what they are saying.
The 3rd and 4th were moderate Captan Chris was stuffed by the second fav for the Arkle, Gizao and everything points to the top 2 in the betting being the top 2 in the race.
If you think 7/1 about a horse who may not run, looks booked at best for 3rd place is value then gawd help you mate.
Fist,
Hell’s Bay’s best "form" is at Cheltenham. Form (as far as I am concerned) means quality of performance; "wins" don’t come in to it. But if you want another reason why Hell’s Bay did not run to form at Newbury, just take a look at the trip of 2m1f.
Apart from early in his career, has rarely run at around 2 miles. He’s even won at 3m3f.Captain Chris has real potential, but he jumps right-handed and makes mistakes. If he jumps straighter and better at Cheltenham, then he stands a good chance; but on recent form, that seems unlikely. That run against Gizao was at Cheltenham, where he jumped pooly and right-handed. There is every reason to suggest Captain Chris improved on his Gizao form, it being a right-handed course yesterday. Although 14/1 does look worth the risk; Medermit is a good jumper (which is important in this race) and goes well at Cheltenham. Therefore I would be willing to take a much shorter price on him, than I would Captain Chris.
As I said, I considered Medermit almost certain to go for the Arkle, it seems I was right, with Kingy making the announcement this morning. Sometimes the price makes it worth the minimal risk of him going elsewhere.
Now 7/1 best price is only available in one place (PP).
I do respect Finians Rainbow Fist, in my opinion has the second best chance.
It’s all about opinions, and think we’d better agree to differ. (thumbs up).
Value Is EverythingCorals went out on a limb by offering up 9/2 about Finian’s Rainbow after the race yesterday and that is my idea about the value in this race.
Medermit doesn’t seem to finish his races all that strongly and if CC hadn’t skied the last he’d have won yesterday. I can’t see the former storming up the hill and holding on.
Medermit stormed up the hill a couple of years ago to almost catch Go Native in the Supreme Novices. He’ll never go away from them, because he idles in front.
The 7/1 has gone, best now 13/2 with only boylesports.
Value Is Everything
Are you for real?!
And what shyte you talking about Hell’s Bay being best at Cheltenham he’s ran there 4 times in his life and won 1 race. Absolutely no way can you say he needs to run there to be at his best.
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