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Fastorslow on the drift , I’ve played iknowhatyurthinkin but topped up the Lecky Watson e.w bet , if there’s a horse who’s going to step then it’s him
I posted my 2 selections in here last night and they’ve disappeared.
So here they are again.
Affordable Fury 22/1
Gerry Colombe 20/1
Both win only, both boosted.
A 90% fit Galopin wins this.
Other than that, I haven’t a clue how this race will turn out.
I’ve put a small stake on Elliott’s 3 just for something to watch
Gerri Colombe – 19/1
Croke Park – 47/1
Stellar Story – 48/1HDLG that’s because Galopin has always needed his first run back and in past never won then he has come to this race. However this season he missed his scheduled race. So that’s where the question mark is for him race fitness as others already got into them
VF x
At his age he,s likely to need the run , just as worrying though is Mullins comments , listen he’s a class act however if the Cromwell has a fitness edge , he’s likely now the better horse
I was going to leave the race alone, however…
Some recent trends…
12/12 had had a run that season
12/12 aged between 6 and 8
12/12 had at least 5 previous chase runs
12/12 had at least 3 previous chase wins
12/12 ran within the last 61 dayswhich leaves:
Inothewayurthinkin
Lecky Watson
Croke ParkTrends are there to be broken people will say, and of course that can happen, but in light of the above, I’ll have a go with Inothewayurthinkin ew 4 places
Besides his first run I’m also a bit worried about the ground for Galopin des Champs. He could use some cut in the ground.
HDLG
I think this is just another stepping stone for Iknowthewayurthinkin towards the Gold Cup. He’s never near his best in the winter. Even if Galopin flops, I don’t think Cromwells horse wins today.
I think Fastorslow is possibly well past his best also. Not sure what shape Gerri Colombe is in but Galopin without a prep beats Gerri without a prep unless the latter has been absolutely primed for this.
A 90% Galopin Des Champs beats the rest imo.This is a poor renewal compared to the King George. Every horse was in it’s prime and raring to go for that whereas a few here have missed preps and there’ll possibly be a few non triers in this protecting their National mark. A lot of soon to be veteran 10yo’s in here also.
“Besides his first run I’m also a bit worried about the ground for Galopin des Champs. He could use some cut in the ground.”
They’ve watered the chase course which will help some in that regard.
“I think this is just another stepping stone for Iknowthewayurthinkin towards the Gold Cup. He’s never near his best in the winter.”
Is he a more mature horse now though?
Cromwell when interviewed couple of weeks back said “He’s come out of Punchestown very well and he’s very much on track for Christmas. He will come on from the run, and he should be happy to be stepping back up in trip again. His jumping has improved a lot from last season, so we’d be hoping he could go a lot closer in this race than he did last year.”
Is he a more mature horse now though?
Maybe but he didn’t look much different in the Durkan compared to last year.
“Maybe but he didn’t look much different in the Durkan compared to last year.”
Cromwell was asked about that race too and he said the front 2 went off so fast, and as it was his first run of the season over a trip short of his best, he couldn’t go the early gallop, so he wasn’t given too hard a race thereafter.
Yeah but he was still 13L behind a near 10yo Fastorslow who was coming back from a long lay off and needing the run also.
I think it was a very similar Iknowthewayurthinkin this year to last.
This Savills isn’t as strong as last year though with Galopin a year older now and lacking a run. No Fact To File either.
I don’t think he’ll be beat 15L this time around but I still think there’ll be something a bit sharper on the day to keep him in 2nd or 3rd.
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