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Was working today but managed to see the race- a marvellous performance by thecwinner. Bringing the John Durkan forward a week means we’ll probably see more of Willie’s top horses in this race (and the Kung George perhaps) in future. I wonder if he’ll go to the DRF. On one hand- putting up a monster performance like that took it out of him a bit last year: on the other hand he won the Irish GC last year and creatures of habit, etc; plus I would think the Gold Cup will be his last run of the season this year as I don’t think they’ll go back to Punchestown. So may as well use some “season energy” on the Irish GC. Plus some others likely to give it the swerve if he goes making the task easier.
HDLG, what was your actual take on GDC’s overall Savill’s run? Interested to hear.
Was he the same level as the Durkan and Punchestown GC? Was he better/worse?
Always interested to hear :)
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!It showed his staying strength however its on heavy ground ,don’t believe Gerri ran to his mark , the proximity of the 3rd backs this up in my eyes , it looked impressive but his price for a GC is bonkers , I’ve played Fastorslow , Shiskin and Corach Rambler , PP have Rambler at 40s , it’s a bonkers e.w price , can I ask Jack\Mike why does GDC reverse form Fastorslow ?
“can I ask Jack\Mike why does GDC reverse form Fastorslow ?”
I think he can reverse it if he runs to the level of the Savills Chase. Gordon Elliott was disappointed with Gerri but also said that if GDC turns up in that form in March no horse will beat him. Some say Gerri didn’t run his race but it looked like he was getting the better of Conflated (before he fell) like the last run. Even if you gave,say, Gerri an extra 3 lengths, he’s beaten by 20.
GDC was over the top at Punchestown. And first run over 2 miles 3 in a slowly run race he got beat held up which i pointed out was poor riding for not getting on with it which you described as ‘bul**cks’ yet they changed tactics here and he ripped them apart.
Horse racing, as we know, can be unpredictable and noone knows 100% which horses turn up to perform to their A game at the Cheltenham Festival and which ones don’t, what i can say with a fair degree of confidence is that if GDC runs to that level in the Gold Cup he will be hard to beat.
Kevin Blake wrote a piece which i thought was an OK assessment…
https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake/29-december-2023/champs-back-on-course-for-cheltenham
That Kevin Blake article is worth reading thanks Mike.
I thought this bit:
“A feature of Willie Mullins as a trainer is that he is rarely inclined to interfere with his horses. If they race lazily, they race lazily. If they race freely, they race freely. He is very slow to reach for headgear to try to correct a natural tendency.”
is very true. He relies on jockeys to plop exuberant young or very fresh horses short into the first few fences to get them under control amd save energy, but that’s about it.GDC was at the back in the Gold Cup and hit every fence, made ground and won going away. I think he was held up with maybe a question mark over stamina with the extra couple of furlongs plus uphill finish. It was a race that was bound to “leave a mark” for next time out at least.
I never worry too much about a horse on reappearance, a first run after a long break can see them rusty and he never jumped anything cleanly.The question Fastorslow backers need to think about is if GDC’s ran poorly and is/was over the top then their horse hasn’t beaten him by much
No way would Fastorslow have won the Savills when GDC was back to his best imo
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I’d also say though that the Gold Cup is never won before its raced. Anything can and often does happen to make predictions of its already won look daft.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
It showed his staying strength however its on heavy ground ,don’t believe Gerri ran to his mark , the proximity of the 3rd backs this up in my eyes , it looked impressive but his price for a GC is bonkers , I’ve played Fastorslow , Shiskin and Corach Rambler , PP have Rambler at 40s , it’s a bonkers e.w price , can I ask Jack\Mike why does GDC reverse form Fastorslow ?
Mike’s answered it really
The level Galopin has ran to on at least two occasions is still 8-10pds ahead of Fastorslows two best efforts when beating Galopin.
There is no doubt Fastorslow is progressive horse + is the only horse to put it up to Galopin. So if he continues progressing he could reach that level *as long as Galopin runs to that level of course*. However, it’s asking a fair bit for a horse to go from a 155 horse to a 185 horse. He’s already done 155-175 so lets see. The trainer will give him every chance as he’s fantastic.I also had questions at the start of the season + after the Durkan about the GC bounce factor but i think that performance really showed he’s capable still of bouncing back to 180+.
I wouldn’t take Galopin’s price for the GC or Fastorslow’s. Neither. This was the same when we debated this last year….and the jonbon El Fab thread…..it’s all my opinion on the horses, not the bets.
As for your actual bet, I struggle to buy that he’s good enough. He’s 159 + struggling still now. He’s been great for Russell. You’re clutching to the Ultima formline. Beating Vanillier or Gaillard with the weights involved is not a GC performance. Noble Yeats HAMMERED by Galopin, comes out the better horse in that National.
Factor in he’ll be a 10yo + no ty.He’s 40-1 though and it’s easy to make a case at that price so good on you. It’s never a big antepost race for me, but Gentlemansgame would be my pick- hoping the small setback is just that.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!My simple reasoning for my bets
Fastorslow , has beaten GDC fair and square , plenty excuses being thrown about but it’s a fact he’s beaten him , at 7 he’s likely improving
Shiskin , he’s a freak , very unlucky in the KG
C Rambler , Cheltenham is very much a course for horses , he loves Cheltenham and Lucinda in bullish enough to go straight there , I don’t care about what he’s done this season , in the spring at Cheltenham he’ll be a different horse
Gentlemansgame was all out to beat a 70% BMG , he has mountains to find
Why is that Jack ? , I’ve given my opinion , what’s wrong with that , your a GDC fan , that’s fine , doesn’t mean I have to agree
The Irish Gold Cup at the DRF could answer of lot of our questions/doubts as they are all more than likley going to turn up there.
Regardless, I don’t think you can take Fastorslow’s two wins over GDC 100% at face value as clearly GDC ran below his Gold Cup form in the Punchestown Gold Cup (I don’t think you could either remotely argue that BMG actually improved on his Gold Cup run to just be beaten by GDC) and in the John Durkan, I don’t think the trip was the problem but more GDC’s rather lackadaisical jumping combined with a bit of ring rustiness.
To me Fastorslow has clearly improved greatly since Cheltenham to the extent that I think he would comfortably deal with Corach Rambler (even taking into account his blossoming in the Spring at the Festival) but he still needs to prove that those wins were not just him taking advantage of underperforming rivals. Re Gerri, he might have underperformed slightly but not to the extent of 23L and if we get quicker ground at Cheltenham, that will not be suitable to him in the slightest.
Shishkin (to my mind anyway) would also have been picked up by Hewick even if he had not unseated Nico, as he was up on the front end much more than both Allaho/BMG and while I believe he would have finished in front of those two, I don’t think he would have had enough reserves to repel Hewick’s late surge. Nico had to force him between runners just to get him to start and bully him at various times during the race and I am not sure how often he will be ameniable to that type of ride in future…..as talented as he undoubtedly is, after one too many incidents of mullish behaviour, I simply don’t trust him enough anymore.
With that all being said, GDC is now not a backable price even though I think he is the best horse in the race and anywhere near a repeat of last year’s run let alone a repeat of Thursdays will see him win back to back Gold Cups.
LD73
Look how badly BMG was hampered by Shishkin. I don’t think Hewick would’ve caught either had Shishkin not stumbled. He’d have gotten Allaho though, who was a beaten horse.
Ditto GM , Nico has no doubt Shiskin would stay , that’s why he attacked the fences like he did
Agreed i couldn’t see Shishkin being beaten if staying up. But it’s all ifs n buts, Hewick was finishing like a train, so it’s not a certainty he wouldnt have.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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