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Only 8 runners for the Ryanair.
Although a lot of prominent runners.
Am on UDS 6/1, but that’s now a lesser win for me. Got EOD 10/1 ante-post and taken 8/1 SL now.My 100% Book:
9/4 Empire Of Dirt, 4/1 Un De Sceaux, 9/2 Uxizandre, 11/2 Sub Lieutenant, 10/1 Josses Hill, 33/1 Vaniteaux, 40/1 Alary, 66/1 Aso.I’ve laid my 6/1 ante-post UDS bet back @ 11/4 so it’s just a saver now… and gone in again for EOD 11/4 and 8/1 SL.
Value Is EverythingJust looked at this race for the first time and am going for Uxizandre. I have him 7 clear on my predicted performance ratings!
7 lbs!
How GM?Value Is EverythingJust looked at this race for the first time and am going for Uxizandre. I have him 7 clear on my predicted performance ratings!
7 lbs!
How GM?I’m in agreement with the adjusted RPR of 178.
EOD’s too (based on last time when he was finally beaten, will do well to match at conditions), 171.
UDS trickier as it depends how he jumps on going, actual RPRs for two runs on officially Good 170 CC, 165 at Sandown where jumped a lot worse. Personally don’t trust his jumping, more fences at trip could equal more errors and that may sap unproven stamina, so have erred to 166 = adjusted 170.
SL, 5 below best in Grade so 163.
VAN, bit below as weak finisher, 161.
JH, repeat of last year in this, 159.
If either of the other two win I’LL eat your hat :)Thanks for that explanation GM.
Some form lines for you to consider:Sizing John beat Sub Lieu 2 1/2 lengths in the Kinloch Brae (2 1/2 miles) with 12 lengths back to the 3rd.
Sizing John then beat Empire Of Dirt 3/4 length in the Irish Gold Cup (3m).
Djakadam beat Sub Lieu a total of 2 1/2 lengths in the John Durkan (2 1/2 miles).
Outlander beat Sub Lieu 1 1/4 lengths in the John Durkan (the three of them 30 lengths clear).
All the above at level weights.
Before that, in receipt of 4 lbs Sub Lieu beat Outlander 3 1/2 lengths in the Titanic (2m 3 1/2 f). So ran to the same form against Outlander each time.
Outlander then beat Don Poli 2 1/4 lengths in the Lexus (3m). Djakadam below form a head away in 3rd.
Sizing John beat Don Poli a total of 1 1/2 lengths in Irish Gold Cup.I think people are under-estimating Sub Lieutenant’s form just because they happened in unfashionable races.
Uxizandre beat the mare Ma Filleule 5 lengths giving her 7 lbs in the Ryanair. What’s Ma Filleule done?
Third was Don Cossack, but he was well below the form we know he’s capable of.
Uxizandre beat 4th Eduard 11 lengths. What’s Eduard done?
Did Uxizandre get the run of the race? Will he get the run of the race this time?
Uxizandre was beaten 5 lengths by Un De Sceaux in the Clarence House.
Uxizandre beat Top Gamble 2 3/4 lengths in to 3rd in the Clarence House.
Top Gamble was beaten a total of 6 1/4 lengths by Special Tiara in the Champion Chase yesterday.
Ma Filleule, Eduard and Top Gamble are admirable horses, but none of them have done anything at Grade 1 standard.I can see that Uxi has to be marked up for having won this race before/run well at Cheltenham more than once. But on “form”, can’t see he’s any better than Sub Lieu who’s finished close up to some top class horses.
Value Is EverythingI’m an UXIZANDRE FAN so played him at 5/1
Probably hear over head as i can see EOD running a big race but ill stick with uxizandre
Toals offer money back if second to an Irish trained winner. Worth considering as EOD and UDS both Irish trained.
I would sincerely hope that Empire Of Dirt will neither let me down nor make me hurt, the big goth.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Thanks for that explanation GM.
Some form lines for you to consider:Sizing John beat Sub Lieu 2 1/2 lengths in the Kinloch Brae (2 1/2 miles) with 12 lengths back to the 3rd.
Sizing John then beat Empire Of Dirt 3/4 length in the Irish Gold Cup (3m).
Djakadam beat Sub Lieu a total of 2 1/2 lengths in the John Durkan (2 1/2 miles).
Outlander beat Sub Lieu 1 1/4 lengths in the John Durkan (the three of them 30 lengths clear).
All the above at level weights.
Before that, in receipt of 4 lbs Sub Lieu beat Outlander 3 1/2 lengths in the Titanic (2m 3 1/2 f). So ran to the same form against Outlander each time.
Outlander then beat Don Poli 2 1/4 lengths in the Lexus (3m). Djakadam below form a head away in 3rd.
Sizing John beat Don Poli a total of 1 1/2 lengths in Irish Gold Cup.I think people are under-estimating Sub Lieutenant’s form just because they happened in unfashionable races.
Uxizandre beat the mare Ma Filleule 5 lengths giving her 7 lbs in the Ryanair. What’s Ma Filleule done?
Third was Don Cossack, but he was well below the form we know he’s capable of.
Uxizandre beat 4th Eduard 11 lengths. What’s Eduard done?
Did Uxizandre get the run of the race? Will he get the run of the race this time?
Uxizandre was beaten 5 lengths by Un De Sceaux in the Clarence House.
Uxizandre beat Top Gamble 2 3/4 lengths in to 3rd in the Clarence House.
Top Gamble was beaten a total of 6 1/4 lengths by Special Tiara in the Champion Chase yesterday.
Ma Filleule, Eduard and Top Gamble are admirable horses, but none of them have done anything at Grade 1 standard.I can see that Uxi has to be marked up for having won this race before/run well at Cheltenham more than once. But on “form”, can’t see he’s any better than Sub Lieu who’s finished close up to some top class horses.
That’s great info Ginger, I suppose it’s all about interpretation. I don’t go big on collateral form (can get tied up in knots, e.g. Top Gamble yesterday – needs more of a test) but try to predict a figure for each horse, relevant to today’s circumstances, from an overall picture of its ratings.
Be interesting to see who’s ‘right’ in this one :)
Lost a few quid on this Ante-Post, but of the 2 that survived, I’m happy enough with the prices.
Empire of Dirt, was one of my horses to follow this season, and I’m on at 40’s. I would have preferred to see him Gold Cup, but he’s a smashing horse, and he’s shortlist material for both races, and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t win.
I’ve a few quid on Alary ew at 66’s, and be more than happy should he place, though no idea how good he actually is.
but try to predict a figure for each horse, relevant to today’s circumstances, from an overall picture of its ratings.
Be interesting to see who’s ‘right’ in this one
That’s what my 100% book is GM.
My 100% Book:
9/4 Empire Of Dirt, 4/1 Un De Sceaux, 9/2 Uxizandre, 11/2 Sub Lieutenant, 10/1 Josses Hill, 33/1 Vaniteaux, 40/1 Alary, 66/1 Aso.I’ve laid my 6/1 ante-post UDS bet back @ 11/4 so it’s just a saver now… and gone in again for EOD 11/4 and 8/1 SL.
Call it marks out of 100 if you like.
Considered everything I know about every horse in the race and how it relates to today’s circumstances; including things like going, distance, time of year, form, trainer form, temperament, course, jockey, appendages, wind ops, bounce factor/best fresh, who’s likely to be suited by the pace in the race, etc and put it all in to a percentage chance.
Then converted that percentage/figure in to odds and backed anything available at bigger odds than my assessment.Here are the above odds before they were converted:
30.5% Empire Of Dirt, 20% Un De Sceaux, 18% Uxizandre, 15.25% Sub Lieutenant, 9.5% Josses Hill, 2.75% Vaniteaux, 2.5% Alary, 1.5% Aso.If wanting to compare my assessment with your own, GM, try converting your “ratings” in to marks out of 100 for every runner (with all runners added together equalling 100).
Value Is EverythingJossies Hill last of five in the King George and got beat about six lengths!! That will do for me if his jumping holds up he will beat these!
that was absolute class by UDS. Travelled and jumped. And there was a touch of the old mad b@stard UDS today again which was great to see.
Smashing performance from him, and I would have happily laid him, did not fancy him at all for this.
I just wish they had sent Empire of Dirt to The Gold Cup, but never mind, you can’t complain with a horse winning in that style. Well done to those that stood by UDS
Wonderful performance by Un De Sceaux: he jumped and travelled like a class act all the way. That’s what National Hunt racing’s all about.
Empire Of Dirt was dog dirt there. Never really went a yard. Should have gone for the Gold Cup
I never backed anything in this race, I said earlier that I had thought about Un De Sceaux when he was 4/1 earlier on but that 2/1 or less was too short for me. I seem to be the kiss of death on the horse anyway, so he probably breathed a huge sigh of relief when Ruby told him during the race that I wasn’t on. I think that is when the horse filled his lungs and burst into the lead.
Yet again I worked the oracle for a stable by posing the question Willie Who? yesterday. You can be sure that this was what led to Willie banging them in again five minutes after you press submit.
Aso ran a belter and I wonder what happened when I had him in the race won by Foxtail Hill? Backed down to 5/1F he was stuffed 30 lengths and made me look like an idiot. Tough game this horse racing.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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