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Looks like Somersby is being aimed at the Ryanair next March, according to his trainer!
Interesting Gaz,i see the 36"s have gone on the machine and now
Somersby
trades at 12"s,i would still expect a King George attempt first!
Golden Silver would interest me at this trip.
Any word of Trafford Lad? Is he back in training??
Golden Silver and Trafford Lad, two very likeably sorts. Golden Silver has ran two shockers on his two visits to Prestbury Park, perhaps the step up in trip could help but he’s well able do it at 2 miles here in Ireland. Trafford Lad is a very consistent horse and big things were expected of him last season, not sure what the story is with him but hopefully he’ll be on the track again soon.
- Total Posts 17716
Mad Max if he goes.
He beat Somersby fair and square at Aintree and but for a blunder would’ve got closer over the 2m in the Arkle.
Who knows what will happen though, if Mikael De Haguenet comes back, this could be his target.
I’d personally like to see Mad Max campaigned over 2 miles again this season, he was excellent over that trip last year.
Would love to see Mad Max over 3m+ personally – but that’s my Betfair account talking!
My Betfair account says that the extra distance in the Ryanair might help Captain Cee Bee jump round
interesting comments from nickmordin website:
POSTED ON NOVEMBER 23, 2010
RYANAIR MAY BE BETTER TARGET FOR MASTER MINDED THIS TIME
I share the widespread view that Tony McCoy is the best national hunt jockey of recent years. But he surely made a tactical error when setting a modest gallop then asking Sun Alliance Chase winner ALBERTAS RUN to outsprint the dual Two Mile Champion Chase winner Master Minded from six out in the Amlin 1965 Chase at Ascot. The result was that Albertas Run was stretched into falling at the third last. He would surely have done better to set a stronger gallop in an effort to test the suspect stamina of his rival.
It certainly looked like Master Minded was about to get the better of Albertas Run when he fell. But it’s impossible to be definitive about this because the real test would have come in the final furlong or so, and Master Minded was heavily eased in this section of the race so his stamina wasn’t tested.
Albertas Run obviously has trouble jumping fences out of soft ground. All his chase wins have been on ground that race times indicate was good or faster.
At trips short of 3m 1f Albertas Run has a terrific record on good ground over fences, and hurdles too come to that. His form figures on ground that race times indicate was good over hurdles and fences read 111112111F. His sole loss before this was his lifetime best effort when second to the brilliant Kauto Star in what I rated the joint fastest chase run in the last decade, the 2008 King George. It would have been no disgrace to finish second to another brilliant rival in this contest. Whenever he gets his ground in future Albertas Run will clearly be tough to beat. If he were mine I’d be inclined to lay him off to the Spring to avoid the soft winter ground that’s caused him to run below his best before. Though I have to say from a punting viewpoint I wouldn’t mind seeing him run a couple of clunkers on unsuitably soft ground between now and then to build up his odds.
You can argue that MASTER MINDED (43) was basically untested in this race because the early pace was modest and when Albertas Run fell he was left to beat the non-stayer I’msingingtheblues. However when you time his race up to the least fence from the same point they started in the 2m 1f chase on the same card he actually went fast enough to take a Grade 3. And if you use my sectional timing formula to adjust his speed rating by taking account of the sprint from six out he merits a rating one point higher than I’ve ever given him before.
I concede that my sectional timing formula can produce an aberrant rating occasionally. But in this instance my suspicion is that it’s correct. Having spent much of last season suggesting Master Minded had deteriorated and that his bid to win a third Champion was doomed Chase I’m now saying he’s better than ever.
My thinking is that the wind operation Master Minded had before this season has improved or at least altered him. I now suspect he’s going to prove better at longer distances than two miles.
The way this race was run hardly proves that Master Minded truly stayed the distance of 2m 3f. But he was moving so well at every stage that I’m compelled to believe he would have won well even if Albertas Run had set a searching gallop right from the start.
I know that Master Minded has failed to stay two and a half miles in the past. However there has to be a good chance that was simply because he wasn’t getting quite enough oxygen in the closing stages – a problem that may well have been fixed thanks to the breathing operation.
There has always been plenty of evidence that Master Minded should stay longer trips.
First of all he’s built more like a two and a half or three mile horse. He’s bred that way too. One of his siblings, Hautclan, ran third in the Midlands Grand National. Another, Lucky To Be, has just finished third in a 2m 6f Grade 1 in France as a four year old.
It’s also worth pointing out that Master Minded doesn’t increase his speed but risk falling or unseating by hurdling his fences like most top two mile chasers such as Big Zeb and Moscow Flyer. He often clears his fences with feet to spare and has completed the course in his last twelve starts. In addition he hasn’t shown definitively that he’s best fresh as most top class two mile chasers are.
In fact there has to be a possibility that Master Minded now wants longer than two miles to produce his best and that this rather than any breathing problem was the cause of his sub par season last term.
It is not that uncommon for chasers to lose speed and add stamina with age. The best example of this was Desert Orchid. His first ten wins came over two miles or two miles and a furlong. But he lost the four times he cut back to the minimum trip in the latter part of his career because he seemed to have lost the speed to be fully effective over the distance – despite his brilliance over longer.
The real test will come next time out in the Tingle Creek where Master Minded is likely to be taken along at a terrific gallop over the two miles. If he flounders there and trainer Paul Nicholls says it’s because he now wants a longer distance I’m going to believe him.
Eventual runner up I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES (32) seemed to finally blow the idea of him staying beyond 2m 1f out of the water by the way he finished so tired. He’s a useful performer over the minimum distance and will surely win something decent when he’s cut back to it. Though most likely he now needs a break to freshen him up.
As someone once said ‘I agree with Nick!’
Personally, I think it’s telling that Paul F’n Icholls (as I am now calling him) chose to run him at a longer distance than his usual, and I think he’d do an excellent job in the Ryanair.
I’ve had a speculative couple of quid on Betfair at 27/1.
HOWEVER! I have surely cursed him, not by placing the bet, but by telling you about it. Oh well!
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
J’Vole should have won the Ryanair last year.
I think this improving mare will go very close this year
Albertas Run
The horse that decieves. He needs good ground – fact. Trainer says it and more importantly the form and our eyes say it. Hes won 8 races (3 Grade 1s) since March 2007. Thats a little devieving even…the first of those was over timber….all of his chase wins bar 1 have come on good ground, the other was on the better side of good to soft. 3 wins at Cheltenham including this race last year mean he fits the profile for course specialists in the Ryanair. Also 2 of the 5 winners of the race have been 10yo and its slightly moot including last years win by a 9yo – that being the AR.
The horse came out of the King George fine according to Jonjo. I’ve been mulling the bet over and decided to make it now instead of after the Betfair Ascot Chase. He ran well there last year finishing second to Monets Garden and we know Monets Garden wasn’t past it or anything having come out and win the Old Roan this season beating Poquelin. Depending on what turns up on the day at Ascot he could get much shorter. SJ are top price now at 16s with the next best 12s generally. Hes definitely aimed at the race and having won it well last year its a little bit of a silly price already. If it pours down on Ascot before the Betfair then he could go longer. In that case, I might press up if he goes to 25s but thats being very optimistic.
Poquelin is a massive danger and he will be around 3/1 on the day and rightly so. His December Gold Cup win was incredible. A saver on him could be on the cards. Tranquil Sea won the Paddy Power last year and has to be a good chance along with J’Vole but they aren’t 16s. Serious value to be had.
Albertas Run
The horse that decieves. He needs good ground – fact. Trainer says it and more importantly the form and our eyes say it. Hes won 8 races (3 Grade 1s) since March 2007. Thats a little devieving even…the first of those was over timber….all of his chase wins bar 1 have come on good ground, the other was on the better side of good to soft. 3 wins at Cheltenham including this race last year mean he fits the profile for course specialists in the Ryanair. Also 2 of the 5 winners of the race have been 10yo and its slightly moot including last years win by a 9yo – that being the AR.
The horse came out of the King George fine according to Jonjo. I’ve been mulling the bet over and decided to make it now instead of after the Betfair Ascot Chase. He ran well there last year finishing second to Monets Garden and we know Monets Garden wasn’t past it or anything having come out and win the Old Roan this season beating Poquelin. Depending on what turns up on the day at Ascot he could get much shorter. SJ are top price now at 16s with the next best 12s generally. Hes definitely aimed at the race and having won it well last year its a little bit of a silly price already. If it pours down on Ascot before the Betfair then he could go longer. In that case, I might press up if he goes to 25s but thats being very optimistic.
Poquelin is a massive danger and he will be around 3/1 on the day and rightly so. His December Gold Cup win was incredible. A saver on him could be on the cards. Tranquil Sea won the Paddy Power last year and has to be a good chance along with J’Vole but they aren’t 16s. Serious value to be had.
Obviously, punters have to decide whether he has ‘gone’. I think at 16/1 and given his Course record it is worth giving the old boy another chance.
I didn’t see any excuses for Poquelin last year so at the relative prices I am quite happy to swerve him this year.
What was really impressive about Albertas last year in the Ryanair was the number of challenges he fought off to win. Led or disputed throughout…challenged by at least 6 other runners he fought them all off to win by nearly 5 lengths…classy.
Anyone know what the latest is about whether Riverside Theatre will be going to Cheltenham?
Not entered in the Gold Cup, so unless suplemented he only has the Ryanair as a possible target. Although I heard at one time he is/was likely to miss Cheltenham in favour of Aintree. Is that still the case? Only, if he wins the AON at Newbury on Saturday, there will surely be a bigger chance of going to Prestbury Park?
If taking part will be one of the favourites, and Henderson needs something to beat Poquelin for the Trainers Championship.
Am considering taking a chance and backing Riverside before Saturday.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
I’ve actually backed Nicky for the Championship and he’s getting closer everyday but what PN’s do at Cheltenham will be the deciding factor for sure
Must admit I fancy Polquin though. He’s as tough as they come and although AR beat him last season I think he’s the more likely to improve as is reflected in the betting.
Jonjo seems keen to let him take his chance in the Betfair Chase again this year as a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and the Ryanair is a very tough race to win once let alone twice. Especially as he really doesn’t want it any worse than just on the soft side of good. He is said to be over his back trouble when he sustained an injury at Ascot which was the reason for him going off at 33/1 in the King George and being pulled up. All in all he’s a fools bet Ante-post for any race.
Originally I think Ferdy Murphy’s plan was to go for this with The Hollinwell but circumstances have changed and Kalahari King is being stepped up in trip. If he stays he’d be a huge danger but my worry is the Ryanair more suited to a 3 miler stepping back than a 2 miler stepping up because the course is so tough.
Riverside Theatre looks the biggest danger to Polquin but Jimmy Nesbitt will be keen to run him in the Gold Cup if he wins going away on Saturday and that’s why you are getting 14/1 Ginge……puts down your money and takes your chances mate can’t help you on that one. Then again you could take 200 on the machine and lay it off to get your cash back if they do switch him to the Gold Cup.
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