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Cheltenham should have better ground than that at Leopardstown yesterday and i would confidently bet that Weapons Amnesty will beat Pandorama in the RSA! Davy Russell seriously over did the waiting tactics yesterday and was basically beaten by the ground!Oh yes if Mikael fails to get to Cheltenham this year,i can see myself recovering my losses with interest on this fellow!Long Run is still too novicey! Weird Al would be a danger to all as he is a very lightly raced but fast improving sort!
There has been a significant market move for Weapons Amnesty tonight and is now trading at 10/1 across the board,he was trading at 17 on the machine only a couple of days ago! He certainly ticks all the RSA boxes!
Missed the price on that one! Time and time again it’s all down to course form at the Festival, isn’t it.
Moe his defeat of Pride of dulcote last year was a big feather in his cap,Paul Nicholls horse was very strongly fancied that day but Weapons had his measure all the way up the hill!You can see his ears up crossing the line,easier than it looked!
You make a good point, however the way he jumped on both outings at Cheltenham suggests to me that the face past wont hinder him at all. I think if your goin to back a Novice at Cheltenham especially in the RSA Chase they have to have course form.
Yes he did jump well on both occasions but the RSA is a totally different kettle of fish. My gut feeling at the moment is that he may just fall short of festival level, however, a good showing between now and March could sway me…..
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Seems like Nicky Henderson may now run Long Run here, wouldn’t say he’s exactly over the moon about the idea but it would seem what Walley Cohen wants Walley Cohen gets.
Nicky is asking does it have to be 3 miles? not exactly going to have people rushing off to back him making statements like that.
Looks like less and less chance of Mikael D turning up here so that’s a few AP bets down the drain already for me but took 16/1 for the Arkle as well. Which means he’ll probaly run in the Champion Hurdle
Would not give up yet on Mikael Fist. He’s run over fences before so experience is not such an issue plus he seems to take his racing well so if they could get him out early February they might be able to get two runs into him and get him fit before the festival.
I would not be surprised if he turned up in the Arkle though. I don’t think they need to go 3 miles with him yet.
If i was the trainer of Mikael d"Haguenet,i would know 100% what race at Cheltenham i would be aiming for!Money is being wagered on this horse for 4 different races at the festival,that means there will be a lot of disgruntled punters when and if this horse finally gets there! Its not as though the decision is difficult because there"s a race over 2m 2f and one at 2m 4f,fair enough tough choice,Mikaels target is either 2m or 3m,there"s a bloody mile of a difference and if the trainer doesn"t know now this horse has RSA written all over him,he"ll never know!Whats he got to beat in the Arkle over 2m? Somersby,Captain Cee Bee,Tataniano the sprinter,they will run him off his feet!Whats he got to beat in the RSA over the steadier 3m?Punchestowns! and Mikael will knock his lights out!Geez its not difficult!Stop wasting punters money and make a decision public Mr Mullins Sir!
Interesting Fist thinks Long run is at the RSA,Ive got a feeling he will split punches and Long run.Anyway Knocckara beau is a good outsider .Punches needs a bit more experience and if he gets that i think he will destroy all.
I saw Nicky Henderson being interviewed after one of his winners at Southwell yesterday and he was still talking quite strongly about at least trying Long Run over 2 miles in advance of Cheltenham. I’d say it’s now pretty clear, if they can get a 2m race into Long Run in the next few weeks and he proves effective at the trip then he’ll run in the Arkle. If not, then they’ll stick with what they know (that he is very effective over 3m) and run him in the RSA.
At times like this in the olden days Long Run would have been sent to the Cathcart Chase I suspect. Long Run might be an easier ride in the Arkle as he can be very keen…however he didn’t look like he got very high over his fences at Kempton and the speed and jumping test of the Arkle might not be ideal. I can easily see him belting one of the first two fences in the Arkle and testing the jockeys balance! Perhaps thats the real reason they want to try him over 2m…to test his jumping a little more.
TAPK, on all known form Punchestowns over 3 miles is a scarier proposition than the others who all have question marks against them..
At the start of the year I thought Mikael had Arkle written all over him, but I don’t think he’d beat Captain Cee Bee in that.
This actually now looks an easier assignment, but Pandorama, Weapon’s Amnesty and Punchestowns will be no pushovers, thats for sure.
Ryanair anybody?
TAPK, on all known form Punchestowns over 3 miles is a scarier proposition than the others who all have question marks against them..
Punchestowns is undoubtedly a very fine horse,both his form and his looks are that of a quality animal!But he is no future Gold cup horse,because he doesn"t have the gritty determination of Mikael,i wont call him a bridle horse because he"s better than that,but he wont dig deep when he"s got too and 31/4m will stretch him,i believe if there was a Grade 1 over 21/2m for Novices,Punchestowns would be the winner!What question marks has Weapons Amnesty got against him Aragorn?
Long Run will run in the Scilly Isles Novices (and win) and then win the RSA Chase.
Punchestowns will win the Reynoldstown and then finish second in the RSA Chase.
Hope that’s got this all sorted now
Far be it from me to p**s on anyone’s parade but if Long Run wins the RSA I think it’ll be time for me to give up backing horses. Its no race for an iffy jumper or a 5-Y-O, ok Star de Mohaison won one of the poorest RSA’s in living memory as a 5-Y-O but other than that you’ll need to go back to 1950 to find another 5-Y-O winner.
This years RSA looks one the better races of this decade.Pandorama seems strangely short of fans on this forum considering he has a virtually impeccable record, only beaten by Mikael D’Haguenet (who I have a gut feeling won’t be at The Festival.) I can see no reason why Weapons Amnesty is going to reverse the form (good ew though) ….after all Pandorama is as tough as old boots, and will be ideally suited by the hill and/or a fight to the line
Then there’s two British horses with outstaning credintials Weird Al, Knockara Beau, plus Bensalem, Roberta Goldbeck and Punchestowns or perhaps one of the untried trio…Diamond Harry, Mighty Man or even On Raglan Road if they can get a run over fences before the RSA
Long Run is so far down my list I’d need binoculars to find him
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