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RIBBLESDALE – Kalpana 6/1 each-way
I was disappointed with her last time, but I still think it’s better form than the very short priced favourite. Step up in trip, and ground should suit. Only needs a no nonsense ride from Murphy (unlike last time), which of course he rarely produces.
HAMPTON COURT – King’s Gambit 3/1 Win
I hoped for something better, but even the 3/1 has almost dried up, so a case of biting the bullet.
Just a tidy up:-
2.30 Royal Scotsman 22/1 EW
3.05 Andesite 14/1 EW (ante post)
3.45 Rogue Lightning 13/1 EW
4.25 Almaqam 10/1 EW W/O Notable Speech & Rosallion
5.05 Tritonic 20/1 EW (ap)
5.40 Botanical 9/2 WIN (ap)
6.15 My Mate Mozzie 10/1 EWGot to be happy enough with those. At the moment only Botanical is a bigger price, and I don’t think he has ever been bigger than 5/1. Obviously, betting ante-post you will lose out on some places. Fingers crossed something will get over the line, but it’s tough. Looking at the figures I have readily to hand I have won at 8 of the last 9 Cheltenham Festival, but only 3 out of the last 6 Royal Ascot’s. That emphasises how much more difficult it is to win this week.
Good luck this week Stilvi, and some nice ones in there.
Nice price on Tritonic, and I nearly bet Mozzie myself. I’ll probably sit the race out, but Hawaiian caught my eye too.
Clocked your shout for Midnight Gun later in the week. He was excellent at Nottingham, and I’ll definitely be joining you should he somehow manage to sneak in.
Things were going too well. After the Loom disappointment just come in find both Royal Scotsman and Andesite out through injury. To land on the only two horses pulled out – and due to injury – is desperately unlucky. Andesite in particular had been all the rage 14/1-11/2. Unfortunately, I don’t believe that luck evens out in betting so it could be a very bad week, it’s certainly a bad start to it.
Won’t be replacing either of those two.
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NORFOLK – Loom 33/1 each-way
Didn’t want to risk ending up just watching this win. Not sure that Whistlejacket deserves to be so short. Didn’t his tail go round under pressure in one race?
JERSEY – Never So Brave 14/1 each-way
Goes here instead of what might have been a decent handicap mark. Not sure the Classic horses are as far clear as the market suggests. I think Saffie is far more pleasing to the eye than Doyle, and it would be quite a feather if she could land this Group race.
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KING GEORGE V – Autumn Winter 22/1 each-way
Like the Queens Vase this looks very tricky. I am taking a punt on the belief that O’Brien has been consistently running this horse on the wrong ground, and over the wrong trip. Hopefully, he is in the race to run on his merits, and not just to set it up for the stable preferred.
First live one, and if everything goes as badly as that Doyle ride it’s going to be a very long week. Not falling off was about the only thing he got right. Had doubled in price so clearly someone expected a disaster.
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BRITANNIA – Involvement 15.3/1 each-way
Very difficult race, and only the four places on offer. Considered Miletus, but thought this one was more solid. Kept on well last time from a wide trip, and better ground should suit.
Miserable debrief time. For a long time it looked like a non runner was going to be my best of the day by some distance.
Rogue Lightning – as I said above, short of falling off, Doyle couldn’t have done much more wrong. Slowly away, rushed up, raced on a wing and unbalanced. Fell away under a very weak left hand drive.
Almaqam – quite tight in the market, and a nice type, but given he wants further, Tommy Marquand gave it absolutely no chance by dropping it out last in a slowly run race. Finished well, but a pointless exercise. The jock was also poor earlier on Yah Mo Be There.
Triptonic – plenty of good Ascot form, but was weak in the market, and beaten fully 6f from home, eventually tailing off last. Abysmal performance.
Botanical – well backed, squeezed out early, but close enough only to stop to nothing in the straight and finish last. Worse than abysmal.
My Mate Mozzie – eventually stayed on into third, but didn’t travel anywhere near as well as I had hoped, and jock not the strongest in the straight. Never threatened a win. Better than losing, but still disappointing.
Hopefully, it can’t get much worse.
2.30 Ultima Grace 13/1 EW (ante post)
3.05 Highbury 4/1 EW
3.45 Breege 17.52/1 EW (ap)
4.25 Auguste Rodin 7/1 WIN (ap free)
5.05 Sonny Liston 13.08/1 EW (ap)
5.40 Roarin’ Success 18/1 EW (ap)
6.15 Hawaiian 20/1 EWBeating the prices on most, but for some reason Sonny Liston and Roarin’ Success very weak.
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KING EDWARD VII – Harper’s Ferry 33/1 EW
One of three promising 3yo’s the stable had entered this week. Sadly, Midnight Gun didn’t get in, and given the way he was ridden Almaqam would probably have been better staying at home. Hopefully, this one isn’t there just to make up the numbers. The trip isn’t a given, but this isn’t a vintage renewal by any means.
Not good vibes from the market today. All relatively weak, and not easy to see why. Ultima Grace probably the most worrying. Wes Ward and quick ground you think if it had a chance it would be 5/1 not a weak 12/1. I always think quick ground is far more difficult to read than soft. Very often horses who have good ground form don’t seem to cope with good to firm. Maybe that’s the reason for some of these?
Not very lucky with the draws on Friday, with both Heavens Gate and Inisherin drawn on a wing.
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QUEEN MARY – Spherical 18/1 each-way
Given the weakness in the Ward runner felt I needed a second dart. Considering her profile Spherical has been relatively strong in the market. Buick an obvious negative if she comes off the bridle early. If that happens she could easily finish right out the back, but that’s the chance you take.
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SANDRINGHAM – Everlasting 10.88/1 each-way
Bred to be better than this, and hopefully, the visor will drag out some improvement. Ground, and stiff mile should be a plus.
The something is better than nothing, but still a losing day debrief.
Ultima Grace & Spherical – these 20-30 runner 2yo races are just freak shows, you just get them once a year. In the good old days you got small fields, proper races, and some very decent winners. Now with these massive fields it’s turned into a complete lottery. Most horses just haven’t got anything like the strength to properly see out the distance on such a stiff track. So many are effectively finished after 3 furlongs. That’s what happened to these two. Wes Ward doesn’t have the strength he used to have, or he is sending over his second division. Who knows whether the form of these types of race will hold up in more conventional races. It’s doubtful.
Highbury – Wayne Lordan has turned over the stable first string in 2yo maidens this season, but clearly it’s a different kettle of fish in a Group race. Contrast his ride to Moore who threw the kitchen sink at the winner. No surprise if Highbury turns out the better of the two.
Breege – Got a decent position from the wide draw, but couldn’t pick up at all in the straight. Previous straight course form zero advantage.
Auguste Rodin – Hurrah, the free bet goes in. I think he is almost certainly better over further, and he had to be pretty tough to get over the line. Gosden made strange excuses for Inspiral, and she might well have just ‘gone’.
Sonny Liston – a latesh gamble, I thought he was going to pick up the winner, but faltered close home having made up 8-10 lengths. Of course the stable then win the following cavalry charge.
Roarin’ Sucess – massively weak in the market, I did highlight what seemed a bonkers jockey booking, and Whelan duly delivered getting the horse beat after 10 yards making his record on the horse a woeful 0/5.
Hawaiian – another relatively weak in the market, Levey made a beeline for the far side, but ended up on a wing, and similar to those in the first race was soon beating a retreat.
Shame they don’t have 3 furlong races for 2yo’s.
2.30 Aesterius 12/1 EW (ante post) Loom 33/1 EW
3.05 Autumn Winter 22/1 EW
3.45 Kalpana 6/1 EW (ante post)
4.25 Caius Chorister 22/1 EW (ante post)
5.05 Involvement 15.3/1 EW
5.40 King’s Gambit 3/1 WIN
6.15 English Oak 7/1 EW (ante post)At the moment I am just about beating the price on everything, but Caius Chorister is very weak.
Hopefully, tomorrow is turn it around day, but who knows?
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DUKE OF EDINBURGH – Fairbanks 20/1 EW
It could be that the Irish, but I couldn’t understand why this one was so big, although does have a low draw to contend with. Hopefully, completes tomorrow’s team.
After my 2yo commments I did do a bit of research last night just to make sure I wasn’t talking absolute nonsense. I looked back at 1969-1972 purely because I had those form books to hand. In those days there were just the 5 2yo races, spread over 4 days. The Norfolk was called the New Stakes.
Here are the number of runners and prices of the winners of the 20 races:-
Coventry 1969 10 15/8F 1970 5 4/11F 1971 10 20/1 1972 7 16/1 average number of runners 8
Queen Mary 1969 13 13/2 1970 11 2/1F 1971 11 9/2 1972 14 14/1 average number of runners 12
Windsor Castle 1969 15 100/7 1970 10 11/8F 1971 12 15/2 1972 13 6/1JF average number of runners 12
New Stakes 1969 8 7/2 1970 6 5/2 1971 5 9/4 1972 8 10/1 average number of runners 6/7
Chesham 1969 24 3/1JF 1970 7 6/4F 1971 9 6/5F 1972 10 3/1 average number of runners average number of runners 12Two classic winners 1970 Coventry – Mill Reef 1971 Queen Mary – Waterloo
A massive difference to the bookmaker bun fights we get now, but like everything things never change back, even though it was so much more punter friendly.
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CHESHAM – MOTAWAHIJ 20/1 EW
Didn’t want to row in with the shorties. This one looks the part, and ran well enough on debut against the Wathnan Coventry selected.
WOKINGHAM – Torivega 50/1 EW
Wanted a second dart at a price, and this horse is nicely bred, and could still be progressive. He just looks too big.
GOLDEN GATES – Approval 8/1 EW
A rare front running ride for Tommy last time, and hopefully, he won’t be inclined to do something different under similar conditions.
Almost done. Not worth going in on the closer until they decide not to run Trueshan again.
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