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SANDOWN 15.20
ROYAL ARTILLERY GOLD CUP
JENNY’S SURPRISE
With the only mare in the race and getting just 11st 4lb on her back Fergal O’Brien’s eight year old mare looks a safe option to land the trainers second win in this race since Bradley won this back in 2014 for the trainer.
She has already been consistent on her return this season with all her runs coming on bottomless ground. With no penalties to incur, she was a useful type around the Novice Hurdling ranks winning 2-2 commanding today;s rating of 127. Since diverting to the larger obstacles she is still looking for her first chase win, she has become a sound jumper finishing in the top three on 9-11 career starts.
Her run at Chepstow last time saw her doing all of the donkey work under Conor Shoemark and had no response when approaching two out going down by six and a quarter lengths. She is a p2p winner on good to soft ground and with creditable runs on ground that probably did not suit her profile, today’s ground has come up soft side of good which should suit her more, it would be a surprise if she does not take advantage of her low weights and a front running tactical performance
The jockey is still to ride a chase winner in her career, but never-less she has been in the winnings enclosure 6-67 mounts today, just under a 9.6% strike rate and is probably one of the best jockey’s in the race – below stat’s for the jockeys on rides to date.
Ocdt O’Wedmore : 0-22 – Chase rides 0-22 (Cowards Close)
Capt Max Chenery : 0-12 – Chase rides : 0-9 (Morney Wing)
Capt G Disney : 0-4 – Chase rides 0-3 (Bob Tucker)
Lbdr J Sole : 8-38 – Chase rides 7-34 (6 wins at Sandown (5-10) Clonbanen Lad)
Lt Col E Bridge : 1-12 – Chase rides 0-8 (High Kite)
SAC Sam Williams : 0-4 – Chase rides 0-3 (Irish Thistle)
Capt Harry Wallace : 3-9 -Chase rides 3-8 (2 wins at Sandown (2-7) Newtown Thistle
Capt Jack Stamp : First ride under rules
Miss Brodie Hampson : 6-67 – Chase rides 0-9 Jenny’s SurpriseEven though there are better riders in the race that have Sandown experience and the two horses in question Clonbanen Lad is having just his fourth start around the chasing sphere and the once Henry De Bromhead in-mate has failed to win a race since landing a maiden hurdle back in 2012 on heavy ground.
He is rated 117 for this which on what he has been showing on his last run would put him right there about’s after finishing just under seventeen lengths behind 146 rated Mendip Express at Warwick at the back end of January. On to the other top jockey in the race who rides Ben Pauling’s Newtown Thislte, his last win came off a mark of 105 when winning at Towcester by fourteen lengths and was strongly penalised to a 14lb, a ridiculous 1lb per length.
His Warwick run last time saw him pull up a long way from home and even though gets a mark of 118 here it is going to be hard to suggest he could land a blow off that mark this afternoon. On that assumption even though there are far superior jockeys in this race over the selections, Jenny;s Surprise has been consistent enough this season to land a race of this nature.
JENNY’S SURPRISE : 3pt Win @ 15/8 BOG
Darren P Goodbody
Thanks for the analysis and the stats. I thought Cowards Close had a good chance, but with his rider being 0-22 I’m glad I won’t back him.
Good luck with your bet!A lovely outcome, she played it down but her father is terminally ill so just a great day for the family.
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