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After Masterminded last week, I see another straight blue line through Carl Llewellyn’s HARRYCONE LEWIS in the Market for this race on oddschecker.
Hes well weighted, looks like he may have targetted this race and his market support seems to indicate that he’s at least fancied for a place.
Just backed him a similar sort of bet again £10 e/w £20 win at ladbrokes 20-1.
Has anyone else got any fancies for the race?
Most certainly Huka Lodge. Is just so in love with Haydock and Roselier’s progeny have such a truly wonderful record around Haydock. It’s as if they are made for one another.
Hi, Will have to Back two here those being Bannister Lane and Irish Raptor, preference being for the former, have got Simon in mind for the National.
Cheers.
Adrian.
lets hope its on, forcast -3 Thursday night and -4 Friday night, without any daytime sunshine.
I think you’ll find the reason for the "blue line" is that Matt Williams put it up in the Post today. If you think he’s a judge fair enough, but that’s all it would take to shorten a 33/1 shot in a light market.
Barrow Drive. Hinted at a return to form last time and the trainer stated he comes to hand later in the season. Now he has a reasonable weight for the National , I expect him to go very close Saturday at Haydock.
carvillshill Posted: 13 Feb 2008 22:51 Post subject:
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I think you’ll find the reason for the "blue line" is that Matt Williams put it up in the Post today. If you think he’s a judge fair enough, but that’s all it would take to shorten a 33/1 shot in a light market
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I did check out the possible reasons for the blue line before adding it on here and wheras there is the possibility that you may be correct Carvers, I personally do not think that every all the bookies and the exchanges would be running scared by matt williams, he regularly puts up horses in the post and bookies never repond. I regularly watch the markets and how they react to different elements, and bearing in mind several factors Im pretty certain that this is genuine market support and not a bookmakers response, whether it turns out to be a decent horse or not is a different matter, but suspect he’ll go well.
It is true that there is nowhere near as much money in this market as there is in the Cheltenham markets and it would not take as much money to force a move but indeed the pierse hurdle market spoke in the same way with barker when there wasnt a great deal of money in that market. Its a chance like any other and 20-1 is a decent price for speculation.
My computer packed in last night so wont be on here as much for a while, so best of luck to everyone in the meantime and good luck for cheltenham…
It depends what you mean by my opinion. I base my decisions on whatever information is available to me, and should that be an "opinion" or just an analysis of information. When betting generally I will try to pick horses who are likely to improve as the prices are usually better than on those with the best form in the book, going into race. This however involves looking at other information aswell as just the card in the racing post.
I keep an eye on entries, breeding, markets etc. aswell as the card that they are running in and how much improvement they are likely to need to make.
My "opinion" of the horse is that, whereas Im not too big on its breeding, it was fairly progressive early in the season, has been kept away since then, has not come up in any recent entries (according to my records), and this is it’s only entry confirmed at the minute, and has developed the first significant gamble of the market so it would have appeared to have targetted this race.
My analysis of the race is that most of the runners have either an adjusted handicap rating for other runs they have put in this season or are on their way to another race, largely the national. This horse is sat, close to the bottom of that handicap.
I look at that merely as an assessment of information available to me, which will either prove to be be correct or incorrect at a price of 20-1, because at the end of the day, what is my "opinion" worth, when I, like all of us, am not in full view of all the facts.
Looking back on the past 9 runnings of this race, would it seem most unwise to back anything carrying more than 11 stone 1 pound?
I fancy L’Aventure at up to 20s. He finished well in second not far behind Heltornic in this race last year, is carrying several pounds less, including a claimer’s allowance on board (7lbs, I think), is running over 3 1/2 miles, hasn’t won for 3 or 4 years, and is only 9 years.
Doumen’s French horse, Nitrat, was placed in a few expensive French handicaps and doesn’t look overburdened.
Of course there are several others that look dangerous, and I’ve only been able to hedge on a few!
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