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I suspect that you’d be losing big time if you simply backed anything at longer odds than the RP price.
Oh me, oh my
Now this really is a concept I have never heard previously express and seriously I do like the sound of it.
I wonder! Has anyone tried such an idea?
Cormack15
you are going to be to blame for some sleepless nights in the billion household but will certainly experiment and see if it saves me some of those 10p’s Dolus has mentioned.
If it works well who needs Kelly (is that Kelly Brook?)
Billy's Outback Shack
I have two x 10p’s today are riding on selections backed at greater odds than predicted in the RP.
5.05 F/las – CALYPSO BAY at 4/1 – RP 3/1
&
5.30 G’wood – Dynamic Drive at 6/1 – RP 7/2
I think the odds will be in favour of the RP &
Cormack15
and will now wait and see.
Billy's Outback Shack
It’s fair to say that you wouldn’t back all horses that are bigger in price than the RP forecast but it is worth looking at the first five or six in the betting as that is where 80% of all winners come from. The best bets are usually short priced Favs that are well clear in the forecast, say 11/8 then 4/1 bar. For some reason loads of money seems to come for the second fav and the Fav can drift out to become a good Value bet. There was one today in Ireland an Aiden O Brien horse in the first was quoted at 11/8 but the money came for second Fav and the original Fav drifted out to 7/2 and won.
I guess if you can keep backing 11/8 chances at 7/2 you must win IN THE LONG TERM. Something most of us don’t think about. A winner is a winner philosophy is not the way to make long term profits. It’s the PRICE that matters.
Racing Post betting forcasts are not exactly done by odds compilers. Whoever writes the Spotlight also does the betting forcast. It is only meant as a guide. They have so much to do, can’t spend too much time on the forcast. It is not worth their while to do so. Write ups and "Verdict" are just as important to Spotlight writers.
If you want to use the market for your bet try this:
Use one (possibly two) bookmakers. Note down their Early prices. Then back anything that is a significantly higher price with other bookies. ie At a price your chosen bookmaker’s odds compiler would find value.
e.g. If Ladbrokes were going Early price 3/1 (fair 25% chance).
Yet top price was 4/1 (fair 20% chance).
In a competitive market, if a bookmaker’s odds compiler believes a horse has a 20% Fair 4/1 shot, he will add a mark up of 2% (if it’s an exposed sort) 20% + 2% = 22% = fair odds of (offering) 7/2. If it’s unexposed he may add 3%, offering 100/30. Only very rarely, possibly a large P horse in Timeform (one that is thought capable of improving by a stone or more) will a bookie add 5% for one horse. However, even if we are backing an occasional 4/1 shot the odds compiler believes has a 20% (fair 4/1) should not harm profit margins.Therefore: We know that if Ladbrokes are 3/1, their odds compiler believes 4/1 is a VALUE bet (or at worst fair value).
This only works with Early Prices, when punters bets are yet to effect their prices.
Value Is EverythingThank you GINGER TIPSTER sounds pretty logical. What I do is to take a race with the first fav or second fav well clear in the market and then add up all the percentages. I then divide each price by the total overound and hence have a 100% book. Any of those horses that are well above their 100% book price offer value.
I still think the RP forecast is a good guide but didn’t realize that the "tipsters" did it. If you compare the RP on the RP Betting Site (original one, as I hate the new one!) the tables of all the Bookmakers prices are shown and the RP forecast is pretty well in line with the bookmakers prices. You can also see the overound they are betting to.
Wwweeerrr
The Racing Post betting forcast is also what the Spotlight writer believes the betting WILL BE. Not what it SHOULD BE.ie If a horse is trained and ridden by a high profile, well liked trainer / jockey combination, that’s been hyped up in the media:
Then even if the Spotlight writer believes it is a true 4/1 shot, he/she may well put it in the betting forcast at 5/2. So I am afraid, any 100% book worked out by using Racing Post betting forcast is fundamentally flawed.After having a chat to a freelance Spotlight writer about how I work out my prices etc; he advised me to put in for some work as a freelance Spotlight writer. So I had to find out more of what was involved. In the end, as (understandably) all newbies start in the lower class races (which I’ve never worked on) did not follow it up.
Value Is Everythingok. let’s look at the other option which is the "money" horse. As with the 100% book method a starting point is necessary and to be honest there is not one betting forecast that is any more accurate than the next as the prices are only an assumption of any horses chance as no one can possibly know what the true chance of any runner can be. Although you suggest that the RP forecast is flawed their prices compared to the tables of Bookmaker prices are not so different. After all in the first instance ALL forecasts are based on form and judgement. What you think is a fair price at 5/2 I might think is ludicrous. It’s only later in the morning that things start to liven up and the more accurate chances start to emerge. This is when the Bookmakers with their vast network and connected clients adjust prices for money taken and information gleaned from contacts.
These "money" horse can be spotted but a comparison other than between the Bookmakers has to be made and compared against. This where the RP forecast comes in.
I usually find that between 10.am and 11 am is a good time as all the the Bookmakers info is in.
Here is an example from today’s betting and results
3-20 Huntingdon GO AMWELL RP forecast price 16/1. About 10-30 this horse was trading at 9/1 with all the Bookmakers. It opened live around 8/1 and was backed to 15/2 and 7/1 . It won quite easily by 9 lengths.
Now on all known form this horse had no chance and was probably about right at 16/1.( on all know form, Trainer stats etc) The Bookmakers have told us that this horse has done something to warrant this early move. If the only comparison you have are the other Bookmakers prices as you suggest, then these kind of money horses would not be apparent. This early money is to my mind more important and significant than the "steamers" as those movers are not necessarily based on "genuine" information.
In the 4-50 the RP price for MIDIES PRINCE was 33/1 based on nothing more I suppose than T Clements lack of success as a trainer and the breeding of the horse. HOWEVER the early money was down as the Bookmakers tables were showing between 12/1 and 14/1. With no other comparison other than the Bookmakers tables this horse wouldn’t have been given a second look. It was beaten 1/2 length at 16/1 and there wasn’t much in it in the final furlong as it travelled beautifully up the straight.
So whether the RP is flawed or not it is accurate enough to compare to the live market for signs of genuine inside information.
Guys,
I compile my own ratings. They are free but if you feel you would like to give something back then all I ask for is a donation which goes to a local junior football team.
You have to join the site but a full explanation of the ratings is on the home page. I can answer any queries.
Try it
http://www.ratings-plus.webs.com
Cheers
Rob
Thanks Rob
Just downloaded them in excel impressive will keep an eye on these
Many thanks
Billion
have you tried Patternform HERE
It’s free, has speed and form ratings available and is also interactive if you wish to add filters.
It’s worth reading the how the whole site works to get a full understanding of it.
Not come across this. It looks good I think I will spend some time getting to grips with it.
Interesting reply from wwweeerrr.
Do you use the adjusted figures or do you simply go by the raw figure earnt last time out? For example, in today’s 1:50 at Exeter
FIVE STAR WILSHAM
posted a 107 LTO which when adjusted to take into account today’s weights gives him 109.
Having read your account a little more carefully (…) I see you use the adjusted rating. Do you think it makes a difference how far back that rating was achieved ? A LTO best could’ve been posted just seven days ago, or 265 days back, for example. I’m assuming you would check to see if the horse in the latter case had ever gone well fresh before.
if you have the money then formbet with out a doubt, the most impressive ratings ive seen with over 20 parameters to produce one figure..he knows his stuff
patternform if you want the free one, use the run to figure, or just visit the forum where the calculations can be found
the actuary like myself gives free aw tips and is pretty good for a free site
mines still in the making as i am trying out loads of different methods,including using different lenght times to distance instead of the 0.2 recommended.
adding both the speed and handicap figures ina sum of speed minus 100 add handicap minus 100 add 100 , the lowest two horses win most of the time
adding a daily variant to compensate for slow and fast times, trip handicapping and class ratings over class winning weights
i have to totaly agree that the lto figure should not always be used, i go back 12 months which is needed for some horses, distance does not seem to play a high factor , just because a horse as only ever ran over 5f that it should not be rated n a mile race
anyway food for thought, good luck
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