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Selections for Wednesday 02 February 2011
14:20 Newcastle Storm Brig £11.21
15:20 Newcastle Railway Dillon £10.54Results for Wednesday 02 February 2011
14:20 Newcastle Storm Brig WON 2.54
15:20 Newcastle Railway Dillon WON 3.90Running total: +£86.12
- Total Posts 17716
Top Drawer stuff DD Keep it up
This is turning into quite a profitable thread, discretedata….well done again.
I’m surprised that your method isn’t identifying more runners in handicaps…any idea why?Powered by Linux
elcartero
No idea why there have been more selections in non-handicaps up to now. However I have noticed that
all
the selections have been in Class 4 races.
Another thing to note is that despite the fact that there have only been 17 selections so far, there has already been one losing run of 6.
Result for Thursday 03 February 2011
15:40 Towcester Bunglasha Lady WON 2.36
Running total: +£100.11
Selections for Friday 04 Feb 2011
13:40 Catterick City Ground £10.57
13:30 Chepstow Our Father £12.53
14:05 Chepstow Join Together £13.59Results for Friday 04 Feb 2011
13:40 Catterick City Ground MEETING ABANDONED
13:30 Chepstow Our Father LOST 1.48
14:05 Chepstow Join Together WON 2.25Running total: +£103.72
Selection for Saturday 05 February 201113:40 Wetherby Trustan Times £12.96
Result for Saturday 05 February 2011
13:40 Wetherby Trustan Times LOST 2.29
Selections for Sunday 06 February 2012
13:20 Fontwell Kuilsriver £11.34
14:20 Fontwell Captain Kirkton £11.73
15:25 Fontwell If I Had Him £10.30Results for Sunday 06 February 2012
13:20 Fontwell Kuilsriver LOST 2.56
14:20 Fontwell Captain Kirkton WON 1.67
15:25 Fontwell If I Had Him NON-RUNNERRunning total: +£86.89
The story so far………
22 qualifiers
11 winners @ BSPs of 2.54, 3.95, 1.95, 3.95, 1.26, 4.90, 2.54, 3.90, 2.36, 2.25 & 1.67.
11 losers @ BSPs 3.75, 21.33, 6.60, 4.30, 3.42, 4.81, 6.00, 13.12, 1.48, 2.29, & 2.56.
Average stake: £11.54
Total staked: £253.88
Total returns: £340.77 (5% comm. deducted)
Profit on turnover: 34.23%
All very interesting I’m sure but there is no way a 50% strike rate is sustainable in the long run. After all these selections are simply a few of the top-rated horses on any given day running in Class 4 or higher races. In the long run I’ll be amazed if the stike rate is anywhere near 25%.
I think I’ve explained the rationale behind the staking in an earlier post. Not very convincing was it! Anyway I’ve been looking at an alternative staking plan, namely Variable Staking.
Racing System Builder devotees will I’m sure recognise it. Put simply all selections are bet to return 1 point – e.g. 0.2 pts at 6.00, 0.5 pts at 3.00, 0.1 pts @ 11.0, etc.
The reasoning behind this approach was that many commercially available systems boast high level stakes profits but on closer examination these profits can be explained by fluke high priced winners.
I’ve calculated the Variable Stakes and Variable Stake Returns for the selections and here is the breakdown. The ‘bet to return’ figure I’ve used is £100, e.g. £25 at 5.00, £20 at 6.00 etc.
Average stake: £72.08
Total staked: £1585.67
Total returns: £2095.45 (5% comm. deducted)
Profit on turnover: 32.15%
Be interesting to see how this staking plan holds up when the strike rate starts falling!
Negativity there DD
Who’s to say strike rate won’t go up ?
Higher profit % on original stake system too
Go for the half full glass
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