Rating Past Form

[Oasisdreamer]

One for the form anoraks…..

Either intuitively,or maybe using a more scientific approach, how would form students weight previous form factors (out of 10) when previewing a race?

For example I would argue Current Winning Form (10) is twice as valuable as Trainer Course Strike Rate (5) when rating a race.

Current Form (Last 2 runs) = 10
Odds / Position in Market = 10
Trainer Current Strike Rate = 5
Jockey Current SR = 5
Trainer Course SR = 5
Jockey Course SR = 5
Overall Career Win Record = 4
Winning Form at Track = 4
Winning Form over Distance = 5
Winning Form in Class = 7
Winnng Form going Left or Right Handed = 2
Recent Run = 5

Any thoughts?

[MrUnoHugh]

The categories offer varied information but if you were to ask me what was relevant on assessing a horses potential running in the future then you can narrow it down to 1 or 2.

Current Form (Last 2 runs) = 5
Winnng Form going Left or Right Handed = 2
Recent Run = 2
Trainer Current Strike Rate = 2

Not applicable.

Jockey Current SR = N/A
Trainer Course SR = N/A
Jockey Course SR = N/A
Overall Career Win Record = N/A
Winning Form at Track = N/A
Winning Form over Distance = N/A
Winning Form in Class = N/A
Odds / Position in Market = N/A

[Tuffers]

IMHO the importance of past form is merely what it tells you about a horse’s optimum conditions. Only if I know a horse has its optimum conditions do I then turn to look at the other factors which might cause it to be worth a bet.

[Gingertipster]

One for the form anoraks…..

Either intuitively,or maybe using a more scientific approach, how would form students weight previous form factors (out of 10) when previewing a race?

For example I would argue Current Winning Form (10) is twice as valuable as Trainer Course Strike Rate (5) when rating a race.

Current Form (Last 2 runs) = 10
Odds / Position in Market = 10
Trainer Current Strike Rate = 5
Jockey Current SR = 5
Trainer Course SR = 5
Jockey Course SR = 5
Overall Career Win Record = 4
Winning Form at Track = 4
Winning Form over Distance = 5
Winning Form in Class = 7
Winnng Form going Left or Right Handed = 2
Recent Run = 5

Any thoughts?

It’s impossible to evaluate OD. Every horse is different. With most going right or left handed is insignificant, with some it is a very big deal.
Some only have one distance they’re best at, some are equally effective over a range of distances, same with going. But they’re not on your list. However there’s a lot on there that in my opinion are insignificant. Overall Career Win record doesn’t mean a thing to me, unless it’s of poor temperament (which can be seen in other ways). Jockey current form means nothing, when they’re in form it’s usually because the trainers they work for are in form.

Do believe current trainer form (not neccessarily "strike rate") is often more important than the market allows for.

Value Is Everything

[The Ante-Post King]

One for the form anoraks…..

Either intuitively,or maybe using a more scientific approach, how would form students weight previous form factors (out of 10) when previewing a race?

For example I would argue Current Winning Form (10) is twice as valuable as Trainer Course Strike Rate (5) when rating a race.

Current Form (Last 2 runs) = 10
Odds / Position in Market = 10
Trainer Current Strike Rate = 5
Jockey Current SR = 5
Trainer Course SR = 5
Jockey Course SR = 5
Overall Career Win Record = 4
Winning Form at Track = 4
Winning Form over Distance = 5
Winning Form in Class = 7
Winnng Form going Left or Right Handed = 2
Recent Run = 5

Any thoughts?

I rate all Previous form as my number 1 priority ‘Oasis’,I’m a great believer in ‘If a horse can do it once under its optimum conditions it can do it again’ even if has done nothing for a while……connections re-assessing its mark is noteworthy too! re;

Galaxy Rock

last Saturday!

Albertas Run

would be a fine example winning the Ryanair twice and very nearly 3 times of a horse ‘targeted’ to reproduce his best on a given date.

[Oasisdreamer]

Interesting comments guys – thanks!

Like GT I keep a very close eye on yards in form and notch up any potential bets from said yard. I recall David Pipe hitting some form before the Paddy Power meet last year and lo and behold he nails the big race with Great Endeavour. Four weeks later Henderson had his horses in peak form and Quantitativeeasing was able to turn the form around. In addition Alan King was nailing a winner or two at the big Sat meets from Nov to Feb whereas the previous season his horses weren’t to be sighted in the big races.

I think it’s easier to find a horses optimum conditions over jumps as they race from year to year and typically there are less meetings over the winter months. Compare that to the summer when there is simply too much racing on a Saturday and it’s far harder to specialise on the flat imo.

Basically what I was getting at is all these factors are relevant but some more so than others and we all have our different ways of analysing AND weighing up the form. Interesting to hear how others do it.

Two factors I delibarately ignored were Value and Potential Improvers. Value as you have to preview any race first to identify the Value. Improvers as difficult to quantify – far easier to spot with your own eyes.

[Author]

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