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Fist its very easy in Hindsight to say its a weak race but i dont believe that.
I just believe was saw a Superb Winner….there is no reason why he can’t win the Guineas.
The only reason they may not go for the 2000 Guineas is that they have so many other horses that could win the race.
Cant wait to have a luck at the time he ran the final furlong in compared to Crowded House last year.
There plenty in that field for me to warrant it a very good race.
Time will tell
Hardly hindsight or I wouldn’t have backed him so heavily.
The way I looked at is Elusive Pimpernel was all out to beat Emerald Commander who is at best a listed horse/Group3 and is rated a furlong behind Canford Cliffs by Hannon jnr, while Al Zir beat Treadwell who scraped home on the All weather in a class 5.
Hardly form to be going into a group 1 against a AOB superstar, which he looked every bit off in Ireland.
For me the best horse apart from him in the race would be Cordinated Cut, but as I said before, right now he looks more like a steeplechaser and needs a lot of time. He’ll be a decent horse next season IMO as he ran much better than his placing suggests.
im notdenying we have seen a fantastic horse today but he gt the complete run of the race i new after a furlong elusive pimpernell wasnt going 2 win because they crawled till last 2 furlongs. which set it up for a horse wiv blistering speed which we know elusive pimpernell doesnt have . i see the winner as more of a guineas horse than a derby horse i dont see him staying the trip in the derby hes too fast to do it by the looks of it. i still would not count out elusive pimpernell over alot further than todays trip .
This is embarrsing….Ballydoyle have
Cape Blanco (Galileo)
Steinbeck(Footsteps)
St Nick(Montjeu)
Fencing Master/Beethoven( Oratorio).They have 4 new sires already for there catalogue…..
Oh Shiekh Mo Chabal, Kingsoft,Delegtor, Evasive and that American Filly.
There is no comparsion between both operations its chalk and cheese
that is absolutre nonsense all the horses u have mentioned such as stienbeck have not achieved anything just yet st nicholas abbey has maybe.
Come back next year and i will assure you that Steinbeck/St Nicholas Abbey/Cape Blanco will all be retired at Coolmore stud whether they are 3 or 4.
Sure Aqlaam was retired and he won a terrible Group 1 in France….Beethoven could be retired now as he won at least a decent Group 1 in the Dewhurst.
Of course(the above) havent achieved Group 1 success baring 2 but if you look at where they will place these horses and how ahead they are of the opposition its certain they have at least 3 potential stallions from this crop. Nevermind the fact that AOB is a master of developing horses into stallions.
They have 3 this year along with the retiring of Yeats more than likely Septimus and Soldier of Fortune.
The mere comparsion to Godolphin just shows how far they are lagging behind….they cant realistically get anything out of Evasive or the Filly. Delegator is a 7f horse, Chabal Bombed out, Al Zir Stuffed so the whole thing resolves around Kingsfort next year unless they send Al Zir abroad.
Mind you they will be geting a whole new raft of animals from France and Mark Johnston. Maybe Cavarlyman can get a few more Group 1s and eventually be retired to stud
A couple of points.
One, I’d never take form on ground as tacky as that at face value. Al Zir hated every stride, as did Co-ordinated Cut who never went a yard. Al Zir won a middling maiden on soft ground but was much, much better at Doncaster in September on proper flat racing ground (as was Chapple-Hyam’s horse.) Elusive Pimpernel, on pedigree, was never going to be suited by cut to this extent and couldn’t quicken. Watch his action: it was like watching a spider trying to cross the surface of a treacle pudding in a straight line. I’ll certainly be backing John Dunlop’s horse to turn the form round on better ground, probably in the Dante (most look like Dante horses to me.)
I’m not saying SNA is a poor winner of the RPT: He’s clearly not. But Wallace you’re damning the horses behind with faint praise and that’s a mistake. 3/1 for the Derby and 7/1 for the Gns/Derby double? Not in this life.
Two, that was as tepid a Dewhurst as I’ve seen – and I’ve seen every one since 1987. They finished in a great big unremarkable heap – the most wizened tout on the gallops will tell you that they can’t all be good: It’s the oldest, most valid form assessment criteria in the book. Xtension, who was destroyed by Canford Cliffs in the Coventry, was unlucky to be beaten in the last twenty yards. Fence Master has potential and nothing more and Beethoven has already been exposed as a second division horse.
I noticed Mr O Brien talking the race up earlier. Well, he would, wouldn’t he.
A bit more balance and perspective in order?
"ne, I’d never take form on ground as tacky as that at face value. Al Zir hated every stride, as did Co-ordinated Cut who never went a yard. Al Zir won a middling maiden on soft ground but was much, much better at Doncaster in September on proper flat racing ground (as was Chapple-Hyam’s horse.) Elusive Pimpernel, on pedigree, was never going to be suited by cut to this extent and couldn’t quicken. Watch his action: it was like watching a spider trying to cross the surface of a treacle pudding in a straight line. I’ll certainly be backing John Dunlop’s horse to turn the form round on better ground, probably in the Dante (most look like Dante horses to me.)"
Was it tacky, i would call it good soft ground to me. Co-Ordinated Cut ran a stinker and i fully accept he will be a far better horse but not on fast ground, he hated that in his maiden. Al Zir is supposed to be a low knee action horse according to the trainer and he was bullish that he handle the ground. Me thinks he ran his race. Elusive Pimpernel is the horse out of the race for me. He needs a end to end gallop and never got that today. He personally is the one i would really fancy for big things next year from those behind but he simply is too slow against ST Nick. There is not much chance you see ST Nick in the dante….when has AOB ever sent a Derby horse to the Dante. It will either be the traditional Ballysax/Derrinstown or a 2000 Guineas tilt.
"I’m not saying SNA is a poor winner of the RPT: He’s clearly not. But Wallace you’re damning the horses behind with faint praise and that’s a mistake. 3/1 for the Derby and 7/1 for the Gns/Derby double? Not in this life."
Fully agree with the prices are dreadful
"o, that was as tepid a Dewhurst as I’ve seen – and I’ve seen every one since 1987. They finished in a great big unremarkable heap – the most wizened tout on the gallops will tell you that they can’t all be good: It’s the oldest, most valid form assessment criteria in the book. Xtension, who was destroyed by Canford Cliffs in the Coventry, was unlucky to be beaten in the last twenty yards. Fence Master has potential and nothing more and Beethoven has already been exposed as a second division horse."
It wasnt a good Dewhurst winner i accept that but there is bundles of potential from Fencing Master and Steinbeck aswell as Xtension and even still Chabal. The problem is that people were saying its a good renewal, a AOB Rag wins it and its now rubbish?. Cant understand that personally. Beethoven as bad as he is, is a Group 1 Winner. They went a good gallop unlike today.
I ask you a question can you honestly see any challengers to Ballydoyle in the colt department??
There looks to be nothing in Cecil’s Stable, Stoute hasnt even had 1 runner in both Group 1s the past 2 weeks. Godolphin Horses have been beaten, Chabal was pulled up, Oxx has had no more than 3 2yr old winner this season!!!!!!!, Bolger is bare, Weld as usual has a bunch of handicappers.
The only saving grace is that Kingsfort.Arcano and maybe even CC can shake up next year aswell as Elusive Pimp. However they have bundles to find next year with St Nick on this running….I personally send him to the 2000 Guineas….he has so many gears.
What good horses does Stoute ever run in Group 1s as 2yos? Kingsfort’s being very unfairly overlooked too.
My Guineas 1-2-3 right now would involve Steinbeck, Kingsfort and Elusive Pimpernel.
St. Nick is clearly an extremely talented animal, but the people backing him at less than 8/1 have me in fits of laughter tbh.
Very rarely Zarkava…but since we are looking at the 2000 Guineas/Derby picture i would be nice to see him some sort of animal pitch up in the big juvenile races.
He doesnt seem to have any good ones in wait….although there was that thing that won at Goodwood that people were talking about but it completely unrealistic to expect a Goodwood maiden winner to go straight to the 2000 Guineas or even if they did go the trial route it be tough work to get a young horse ready so early in the season
I’m struggling: certainly bar two definites, a couple of possibles and some beaten contenders from today.
I don’t understand the training patterns of any of the eighties and nineties greats anymore, Wallace. Cav calls them the Bury Road mafia but they’re certainly not making many offers we can’t refuse this year.
SMS, HRAC and Filthy always had a contender in the eighties: If they have for next year, they’ve kept the news quiet. Gosden’s best juveniles have all been beaten, can’t think of any from Mr Bell, so you’re down to
Arcano
and
Canford Cliffs
of the exposed horses.
I like the two horses which raced in France last week – Paul Cole’s
Circumvent
and Godolphin’s
Zeitoper
– and a horse of Ralf Beckett’s called
Desert Sage
knocked my eye out in the Nottingham paddock (and in the race.) The way
Co-ordinated Cut
drifted in the past week suggests something other than the ground was wrong. He’ll be back -Chapple-Hyam is a shrewd judge. I quite like
Morano
to pick up a G2 or something like the Italian Derby. The Michael Jarvis horse ran well for a long way.
Al Zir
is better than that and
Elusive Pimpernel
we’ve already discussed. There will be competition for SNA, I hope.
Disagree about the Dewhurst though, Wallace. I was quite sombre last Saturday night about the state of the juveniles.
Yes Co-Ordinated Cut was too weak for it just to be the ground but he was a crazy price anyways. They needed to get another run into him IMO for him to realistically have any chance.
I havent heard much about this Andre Fabre 2yr old this year….very disappointing. Thought this was the nursery for Godolphin.
Aidan needs to stamp his authority on the Derby. First Bolger, then Oxx: about time for Aidan to emerge again.
Is Montjeu going to have another Derby winner? Pretty soon even the owners wont be able to afford him!
The Godolfin people are making the ultimate error. Letting emotion enter their breeding operation decision making.Now they are going to find out that American horses are inferior to the European ones.
Please don’t write off Chabal. Bolgers yard has been in the doldrums for a couple of months now.Trouble is he (Chabal) may be going from the frying pan into the fire."Trouble is he (Chabal) may be going from the frying pan into the fire."
Impressive
What good horses does Stoute ever run in Group 1s as 2yos? Kingsfort’s being very unfairly overlooked too.
My Guineas 1-2-3 right now would involve Steinbeck, Kingsfort and Elusive Pimpernel.
St. Nick is clearly an extremely talented animal, but the people backing him at less than 8/1 have me in fits of laughter tbh.
I hope your Guineas 1-2-3 is based of the assumption that SNA won’t go to Newmarket, or are we talking about the Swiss 2000 Guineas?
Thinking the Dunlop horse can reverse placings with SNA has me in fits of laughter.
I agree with you about Steinbeck. A fine performance in the Dewhurst on only his second outing, after a five month absence.
Xtension is the one I would take out the race, however. Looked for all the world like he needs a Winter on his back. Just lacked a bit of strength when the chips were down, but travelled like the best horse in the race.
I admit I got it wrong after SNAs last victory. I spoke very highly of him, but couldn’t see him as a serious Guineas prospect.
That performace today was immense. Held up off a slow pace before waltzing past the opposition. I was speechless. Those weren’t average animals he beat.
Don’t forget abour Arcano, either.
He has arguably the strongest chain of form in the book. His Newbury maiden win has worked out well, but his Prix Morny victory shows him to be a horse of the highest order.
He defeated Speical Duty that day, who went on to land the Cheveley Park. Prior ro her Deauville effort, she beat Siyouni, who defeated a good field of juveniles in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.
Canford Cliffs was back in third at Deauville and nothing has surfaced to explain his ‘below-par’ effort.
He doesn’t win by far, but Brian Meehan’s horse is a real scrapper and he also won the Prix Morny off a fairly sedate pace.
Wouldn’t touch a Meehan horse for a classic.
Delegator didn’t do too badly, did he?
May is such a distant memory I forget which horse beat him.
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The Morny pace can’t have been that sedate – Arcano set a new course record.
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It was, but Special Duty came out of the stalls like a scalded cat on what was exceptionally fast ground.
Times are pretty irrelevant in GB/Europe as you only get them when horses set off like that. If she hadn’t wanted to make all the time would have been slow….Sea the Stars broke the record at York but so did some mule in the first race that day which again was run at a very fast pace.
Canford Cliffs actually headed her 100mts out but had the disadvantage of running the rail where nothing ever seems to win when doing.
I still think that’s the best 2yo race seen this season and Canford Cliffs is the one to beat. AOB pulled his runners out twice against him and I don’t think he’ll risk St Nick in the 2000 guineas.
The Guineas wasn’t on the agenda before the Racing Post and I can’t see them changing despite they say it is under consideration.
The horse looks a good thing for the Derby as things stand and a hard race, which no doubt he would get in the Guineas, might bugger up the whole plan.
Canford Cliffs, Arcano, Xtension, Kingsfort and possible AOB’s Steinbeck are probably much better 1m horses than anything that ran in the Racing Post so it’s not a simple case of saying St Nick is favourite AOB will run him.
AOB and Co. are very shrewd and I think the will think long and hard and of course see how the horse is at the time.
Their main priority will be to win the Derby and to keep the horse unbeaten. They can do that and his stud value goes through the roof.
Risking running him in the 2000 guineas against the above mentioned, when he already get’s a mile as a 2yo, may not be the wise thing to do.
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