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I’ve just checked, and the 14-1 for Consigliere has gone (at 1827 with Boyles) Now best priced 12-1….still value I think.
Rich 1985 said…….
I can’t see Consigliere winning to be honest, not good enough IMO. Needs really soft ground in my view and that definitely won’t be the case tomorrow. POS, Nacarat and MLB to fight it out, with POS just coming out on top.
I’m not disputing he likes it soft, but he ran a cracking race on genuine good ground last year at the festival, giving oodles of weight to everything in the race bar Tatenen, before he weakened at the last, finishing 4th….giving 1st 4lbs to each of the three horse that finished in front of him. I think he will handle the ground ok.
I’d be amazed if Nacarat wasn’t beaten by at least 15 lengths tomorrow. Gone at the game.
Rich 1985 said…….
I can’t see Consigliere winning to be honest, not good enough IMO. Needs really soft ground in my view and that definitely won’t be the case tomorrow. POS, Nacarat and MLB to fight it out, with POS just coming out on top.
I’m not disputing he likes it soft, but he ran a cracking race on genuine good ground last year at the festival, giving oodles of weight to everything in the race bar Tatenen, before he weakened at the last, finishing 4th….giving 1st 4lbs to each of the three horse that finished in front of him. I think he will handle the ground ok.
True he handled it OK that day and ran well but apart from that all his form, including most recently, has been on soft. He may be tapped for toe against some of these I feel.
Re. Nacarat – I for one won’t be writing him off just yet, was only April last year when he won last and has faced some stiff opposition since – granted he should’ve been more competitive in that Listed Chase at Aintree in December but that was on heavy ground. A return to Kempton on better ground may rejuvenate him.
This race gets so brutal at the finish, which is quite unique for Kempton. Remember Simon walking home, Razor Royale and Nacarat out on their feet and slow motion finishes of years past. It takes a strong stayer to win The Racing Post Chase. With this in mind, I still find it hard to warm to
Consigliere
since he has dogged it plenty of times in a battle.
Habitual weak finisher Razor Royale (RIP) did outbattle Nacarat a couple of years ago though, so maybe I am making too much of it. Nacarat himself is not the strongest finisher so this was possibly a very weak year. Nacarat’s win can also be marked as an exception since he was so far ahead of the handicapper at the time.
Nacarat
often goes on runs of woeful form before bouncing back. He was over-the-top at Punchestown last season and probably just outstayed in the Charlie Hall and King George. He barely stays three miles in the best company and actually moved well for a long way at Christmas before petering out. I still think he isn’t treated well enough to win but there is a good chance of him getting in the frame again in a race which is a definite annual target for him.
As for
Planet Of Sound
not winning for two years, that is fair enough, but he has only had three runs! He got injured in The King George, so one of them can be ignored. With that one struck through, he has run third in The Betfair Chase and second in The Hennessy. Not too shabby.
Deep Purple
,
Fiendish Flame
and
Hector’s Choice
seem weighted up to the limit of their abilities on all known form.
Royal Charm
steps way up in trip and has looked lifeless this season.
Sarando
is back down in the weights 8lbs since falling in The Hennessy. I don’t particularly rate his second to Quito De La Roque on quick ground at Aintree last year. To be beaten by that horse on conditions which would have been completely unsuitable to his rival is pretty mediocre. Sarando hasn’t looked happy since his fall in any case. I think people were fooled by his easy win at Carlisle a few months ago as well. So early in the season, it is likely that none of his rivals were fit enough to do themselves justice.
Paul Nicholls’ last three runners have all won, so
Michel Le Bon
looks appetising again with the stable seemingly firing. 144 certainly looks like a good handicap mark since he has form that ties in closely with 150ish performers like Ogee and the late According To Dick. I am prepared to watch Michel Le Bon win without backing him, though. Michel Le Bon is still very inexperienced over fences and clouted a couple at Newbury last time. Against grizzled handicappers, he will have to be much more tidy.
Mount Oscar
certainly stays very strongly even if he has his own ideas. He is 13 now though and would need a career-best to improve on last year’s second having never won from a rating as high as 140 before.
Conclusion:
While Michel Le Bon could well make a mockery of his mark,
PLANET OF SOUND
appeals as the most reliable horse in a race where all of the others have some sort of question to answer. There is no shame in his defeat to a well-handicapped Carruthers in The Hennessy and he is still on the same rating. 4/1 sounds like decent value to me.
Re. Nacarat – I for one won’t be writing him off just yet, was only April last year when he won last and has faced some stiff opposition since – granted he should’ve been more competitive in that Listed Chase at Aintree in December but that was on heavy ground. A return to Kempton on better ground may rejuvenate him.
Look at the difference between Moscow Flyer March 2005 and Moscow Flyer April 2005.
Rich 1985 wrote…..
True he handled it OK that day and ran well but apart from that all his form, including most recently, has been on soft. He may be tapped for toe against some of these I feel.
Re. Nacarat – I for one won’t be writing him off just yet, was only April last year when he won last and has faced some stiff opposition since – granted he should’ve been more competitive in that Listed Chase at Aintree in December but that was on heavy ground. A return to Kempton on better ground may rejuvenate him.
Yep I take your point Rich, if it was softer I would be easier making a case for him. I feel in his last couple of races he has shown improvement, maybe it’s just me but I think he looks a better horse this year. If I’m right, he is well in on 11st 1lb. I know it’s all relative to who is running, but you have to go back some time for him carrying that kind of weight.
If I’m putting 2 and 2 together, and getting 5, I will happily hold my hands up after the race if he starts running on the spot before the last. But, you pays your money etc etc.
The Young Fella wrote….
This race gets so brutal at the finish, which is quite unique for Kempton. Remember Simon walking home, Razor Royale and Nacarat out on their feet and slow motion finishes of years past. It takes a strong stayer to win The Racing Post Chase. With this in mind, I still find it hard to warm to Consigliere since he has dogged it plenty of times in a battle.
Again, I take your point, he has disapointed in the past, but as I said to Rich, I think he has shown a bit more grit of late and is a better horse.
I seem to be singing this horse’s praises here…..I wish to point out before anyone insinuates otherwise, I have never had a relationship with this horse, I have never bought him polo mints, and we have never even held hooves……and the photographs are fake !!!
Rich 1985 wrote…..
True he handled it OK that day and ran well but apart from that all his form, including most recently, has been on soft. He may be tapped for toe against some of these I feel.
Re. Nacarat – I for one won’t be writing him off just yet, was only April last year when he won last and has faced some stiff opposition since – granted he should’ve been more competitive in that Listed Chase at Aintree in December but that was on heavy ground. A return to Kempton on better ground may rejuvenate him.
Yep I take your point Rich, if it was softer I would be easier making a case for him. I feel in his last couple of races he has shown improvement, maybe it’s just me but I think he looks a better horse this year. If I’m right, he is well in on 11st 1lb. I know it’s all relative to who is running, but you have to go back some time for him carrying that kind of weight.
If I’m putting 2 and 2 together, and getting 5, I will happily hold my hands up after the race if he starts running on the spot before the last. But, you pays your money etc etc.
The Young Fella wrote….
This race gets so brutal at the finish, which is quite unique for Kempton. Remember Simon walking home, Razor Royale and Nacarat out on their feet and slow motion finishes of years past. It takes a strong stayer to win The Racing Post Chase. With this in mind, I still find it hard to warm to Consigliere since he has dogged it plenty of times in a battle.
Again, I take your point, he has disapointed in the past, but as I said to Rich, I think he has shown a bit more grit of late and is a better horse.
I seem to be singing this horse’s praises here…..I wish to point out before anyone insinuates otherwise, I have never had a relationship with this horse, I have never bought him polo mints, and we have never even held hooves……and the photographs are fake !!!
Haha nice one
Never held hooves?! Do you have hooves as well?!
If Michel Le Bon is as good as connections believe then he is the one to beat, but still has plenty to prove.
The three class horses – Planet Of Sound, Deep Purple and Nacarat – all have their preferred conditions. Nacarat has an excellent record in the race and both Planet Of Sound and Deep Purple come into this race in good form.
Hector’s Choice is interesting, but his recent effort behind Tatenen and I’msingingtheblues leaves him with a little bit to find if the aforementioned trio run up to their best.
Deep Purple may not be suited by this trip around Kempton these days, but both Planet Of Sound and Nacarat have huge shouts. Nacarat has excuses for his post-Aintree performances. He was arguably OTT by Punchestown and would have been unsuited by the ground he encountered at Aintree. He has disappointed on his seasonal debut before and this is obviously easier than the King George, where he showed up well for a long way.
Sarando would have a squeak if coming back to his best, but I will stick with
Nacarat
, followed home by Planet Of Sound.
I agree that Planet of Sound has a very good chance, his 2nd to Carruthers, giving nearly a stone to him, in the Hennessy was impressive.
I also know what you mean with Consigliere, he has in the past petered out a bit at the end of some of his races, but as you know from my previous post, I fancy him for this. My reasoning is that I believe as he has got older, he finishes a bit better now. Two races back, admittedly over 2m5f at Wincanton, he won with his head in his chest and eased down. In the Peter Marsh last time, he did fade, but only in the last few yards, and that was after 3m on heavy at Haydock. I think 3m at Kempton, a sharper track, and on good ground, will not cause him any problems.
He has always threatened to be a very good horse, but just fell short. I think at 9yrs, David Pipe is now getting the best out of him. I can see him winning this and doing well at Cheltenham, where he has got 4 entries….not sure which he would head for, maybe the Coral Cup or the Byrne Plate.
Agree with your summary of Consigliere BigG. Doesn’t have the chance of Planet Of Sound, but looks good value at around 14/1. I’ve backed him each way with doubts on how much he’ll find in a finish. Another alternative would’ve been a win bet and then putting a saver in running bet up at a lot shorter. Almost bound to be travelling well down the back straight / on the turn for home. Not very often I back a Timeform sqiggle horse.
Also backed Hectors Choice as a win only. Missed the best prices this morning, but around 7/1 seems good enough (especially bog). Been crying out for this trip and there aren’t many improvers in the race this year.
Michael Le Bon might progress, stable seem to think he’s capable. But might need to lead and with both Fiendish Flame and Nacarat in there, might not get his own way.
Deep Purple is interesting, they’ve deliberately kept him out since December. Won last time over 5f further, but that was very slowly run. A strongly run 3m should suit. If I had another bet (possible saver) at around 17/2 it would be him.
Nacarat is a kempton specialist and fairly handicapped, but (imo) hasn’t shown enough this season to back him at todays price.
Planet Of Sound has an obvious chance, probably should be favourite, just think he’s too short at around 9/2.
Value Is EverythingI think Planet of Sound is the most likely winner, but it’s worth pointing out that Fiendish Flame hits a lot of the trends at a big price, and is worth an e/w shout.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
I’d be amazed if Nacarat wasn’t beaten by at least 15 lengths tomorrow. Gone at the game.
This goes to show you don’t know as much as you think
Super ride from Paddy Brennan – happy to let Hector’s Choice go by as they turned in and then just let him go.
My ew bet Consigliere just couldn’t go the pace on that ground but plugged on for 4th.
Super ride from Paddy Brennan – happy to let Hector’s Choice go by as they turned in and then just let him go.
My ew bet Consigliere just couldn’t go the pace on that ground but plugged on for 4th.
Hmm not too sure about that, if HS had jumped the last better he had the momentum in my eyes, but Nacarat a much deserved winner. Horses for courses anyone?
For sure!!! Brilliant bit of training from Tom George I thought we’d seen the last of Nacarat tbh and couldn’t have backed him with bad money.
Seems like the whole world backed Fiendish Flame a big odds and were all trying to get matched at 7 and 8 at the same time. I was on at 25 and won 16 p
Anyone want a beer?Rich, why you having a pop at me? I assumed that the opposition would be better horses than the one who’s been beaten 10 horses in his last 4 starts and been beaten a total of 141 lengths.
So who’s the mug? Me, who bet £10 on Planet of Sound on Monday at 10s, or the owners of the 9 horses who failed to win, each paying £15k a year to get their dogs trained?
Really, Zark, you can be quick to "have a pop" at someone else or a new member whose "lesser" opinions you find irritating, but you’re not so keen when someone points out you were glaringly wrong.
It’s not a big deal, but maybe take it on the chin with a little more grace?
Zip
Ps,
FWIW, I thought Nacarat had no chance on current form!
Anyone want a beer?
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