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Venjee….
Anybody got any views on Consigliere (FR)
I’m thinking if the race cuts up and there is 10 or less runners he might have a squeak!
The only problem is he has’nt won over 3 miles although he did run quite well in the Peter Marsh on heavy ground.I am with you on this one Venjee. I wouldn’t worry about not getting the distance, he was traveling well throughout the race, and only tired after the last on the run in, and that was on heavy ground. Kempton on good ground is going to suit him well I think.
On his previous run at Wincanton over 2m5f, he could have won it pulling a cart and was eased down with a lot still in the tank.
He is still 16s with Stan James, 14s generally. Coral’s have been ducking him since their book opened. Was 10s (when others were 20s)and now out to 12s. I don’t know who the Coral’s compiler is, but I’ve noticed he, or they, often gets it right. A lot of good signs for him. I’m having the 16s.
NTD is a total godsend for reliability around the same time every year. no doubt he will win a race at the festival. lots of unexposed chasing types. not sure about his hurdlers.
Like astracad, ackertac and educated evans.
Little josh could bounce back too.
Billie Magern has been begging for 3 miles since being dropped back down in trip at the start of the season. I understand he won over 2, 5 at Cheltenham, but that hill can make any race feel half a mile longer. Plus he’s won a couple of times at this distance, so absolutely no worries there. 20’s is value.
I reckon Deep Purple is past the 3 mile stage of his life. Might just get outpaced.
Twiston-Davies is in worse form than Nicholls. Several horses running a few stone below their ratings.
Had a 16/1 winner the other day, wouldn’t worry too much about the stable form, especially in a big race, BM will be well primed. NTD never does well mid season historically; always has been a start/end of jumps season yard. Watch them pick up 2 or 3 winners at the festival.
One 16-1 winner and two others in the first four in twenty seven runners.
6 horses who’s last RPR was between 40lb and 80lb below their best.It’s terrible form.
Oh, and Billie Magern – all wins between July and October when T-D’s getting the winners whilst the bigger stables have a summer break.
All I’m saying is that he’s very capable of getting one ready for when it matters – just look at his record – at big odds BM is well worth a shout, was staying LTO so 3m looks a good move, and should have his favoured good ground. I fully expect him to score at Cheltenham too, the yard know the time of day.
NTD is a total godsend for reliability around the same time every year. no doubt he will win a race at the festival. lots of unexposed chasing types. not sure about his hurdlers.
Like astracad, ackertac and educated evans.
Little josh could bounce back too.
Something was amiss with EE LTO, but prior to that he was very progressive.
Sybarite has contested some top races this season at Cheltenham and could do well too, if recovering from a shocker LTO.
As much as I’m a fan of POS, I reckon that the track will be far too tight for him and so can’t have him at 5-1. I prefer Nacarat as these are his conditions, but 5-1 is again too short given his form so far this season.
Hector’s Choice (ew) looks like the bet for me.
Both 7/2joint favourites now, Michel Le Bon is interesting off a low weight – his Hennessy to me looked like a lack of fitness as he was bang there with a mile to go, previous form makes him a contender. Stable goings on is a concern however.
Aww, I was really keen on Billie Magern.
It is unoriginal but I cannot see past
Planet Of Sound
now. He ran well in The Arkle and was a leading Ryanair contender a few seasons ago so I cannot see the sharp track inconveniencing him. I think he has plenty of speed. POS is still on the same mark that saw him run second in The Hennessy.
I like Consigliere but think he finishes too weakly. This race turns quite grisly at the end most years, so it is not one for a dog like him. Nacarat should run well into the places again but isn’t well treated enough to win. Michel Le Bon is also interesting but I couldn’t back a Paul Nicholls runner with confidence yet.
JJM: Welcome to my way of thinking
and that 3rd was after his saddle slipped too!!Gutted, can not catch a break with Fingal Bay and Grandouet out of the festival today. Thought 9/1 was an immense price.
The Young Fella wrote…
It is unoriginal but I cannot see past Planet Of Sound now. He ran well in The Arkle and was a leading Ryanair contender a few seasons ago so I cannot see the sharp track inconveniencing him. I think he has plenty of speed. POS is still on the same mark that saw him run second in The Hennessy.
I like Consigliere but think he finishes too weakly. This race turns quite grisly at the end most years, so it is not one for a dog like him. Nacarat should run well into the places again but isn’t well treated enough to win. Michel Le Bon is also interesting but I couldn’t back a Paul Nicholls runner with confidence yet.
I agree that Planet of Sound has a very good chance, his 2nd to Carruthers, giving nearly a stone to him, in the Hennessy was impressive.
I also know what you mean with Consigliere, he has in the past petered out a bit at the end of some of his races, but as you know from my previous post, I fancy him for this. My reasoning is that I believe as he has got older, he finishes a bit better now. Two races back, admittedly over 2m5f at Wincanton, he won with his head in his chest and eased down. In the Peter Marsh last time, he did fade, but only in the last few yards, and that was after 3m on heavy at Haydock. I think 3m at Kempton, a sharper track, and on good ground, will not cause him any problems.
He has always threatened to be a very good horse, but just fell short. I think at 9yrs, David Pipe is now getting the best out of him. I can see him winning this and doing well at Cheltenham, where he has got 4 entries….not sure which he would head for, maybe the Coral Cup or the Byrne Plate.
I am interested in Michel Le Bo too. It is rare to get a nice weighted unexposed top class potential nicholls horse like this. He jumped superbly in the hennessy until about 4 out when he hit a wall, surely of a nice 10-12, under the best jock, round an easier 3m, smaller field it could be the right recipe.
Playing the top weight and michel le bon even stakes on the win.
I’m going to take a chance Consigliere (FR) will stay the 3miles at Kempton he seems to have a lot going for him small field all wins in races of 10 or less, Tom Scudamore has won on him 5 times the only thing I’m worried is that he has never won over 3 miles but I suppose if he is going to win a 3mile race Kempton is as good a place as any.
The one I am worried about is Sarando if he is in anything like the form of his Aintree run last year I think he is a live contender.
Mount Oscar might run well also.
Nothing like covering all your bases lol.In any handicap where it appears that there is dearth of quality it usually pays to look at the top end of the handicap. Having liked Planet of Sound on the same principle in the Hennessy, and Deep Purple for his handicap debut at Sandown, Nacarat strikes me as the most likely winner. Plenty of class and a tremendous record in the race, whereas the other two are more likely to be using it as prep race for the National.
Eclipse First wrote…..
In any handicap where it appears that there is dearth of quality it usually pays to look at the top end of the handicap. Having liked Planet of Sound on the same principle in the Hennessy, and Deep Purple for his handicap debut at Sandown, Nacarat strikes me as the most likely winner. Plenty of class and a tremendous record in the race, whereas the other two are more likely to be using it as prep race for the National.
I wouldn’t disagree with your reasoning here. He has a great record in the race, winning in 2009 and placed in both other races and often the class horses win from the top end. But I can’t have any of the three "class" horses in this race.
Planet of Sound, good horse that he is, hasn’t won for two years.
Deep Purple did indeed win his last race, but that was first win in over two years, and it was over 3m 5 1/2 f. I think he needs extreme distances to be at his best now, and I think he will be running on but too late over a sharp 3m at Kempton.
Nacarat has been a really nice horse, but since winning last April at Aintree, he simply has not looked the same horse. In the four races he has had since then, he has not only been beaten, but he was last (of the finishers) in three out of four, and beaten a total of 141 lengths
Guiness Gold Cup at punchestown….last of four finishers….beaten 45lenghts
In the Charlie Hall….4th, ….beaten 33 lengths
At Aintree in Dec….last of 3 finishers ….beaten 22 lengths
In the King George…last of 5 finishers…..beaten 41 lengthsI do take your point that Nacarat has been a top class horse, but it would take a giant leap of faith in expecting him to bounce back to form. Not one I’m about to make.
As I posted earlier, I think Consigliere has been frustrating in the past, but he seems to be showing himself as an improved horse. One firm still going 14-1, I think that is overly generous.
Best of luck anyway Eclipse.
and that 3rd was after his saddle slipped too!!
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