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Hi all,
I’ve had some questions around horse fitness and recovery time, particularly in my form analysis.
It is something I do certainly consider and I was wondering if anyone could share their perspective on the subject. I’ve had a search and found some posts from 2003-2005 but nothing in detail.
Question: Say we have horse A and horse B. Everything else considered both are about level in terms of ability. The difference is horse A last ran 30 days ago, horse B 90 days ago. Would recovery time and fitness enter into your decision in a case such as this? Or not at all? I know it would be prudent to consider horse B’s history here and returns from a 90 day break, but for this case let’s say that this isn’t available.
I’m blissfully aware there is no concrete way to know have the true level of fitness unless you went to the stables to witness the training yourself!
Is there such a thing as a sweet spot for recovery time or maintaining fitness or do we trust that the horse would be up to the level of fitness or wouldn’t have been entered?
Many questions I know, just the black hole in my knowledge at the moment :)
Cheers
Steve
PS – If this is in wrong forum please feel free to shift :)
The old adage of all horses are different I’m afraid. One that stands out this season for me is Apple’s Jade. Beaten first time out at very short odds. An improved run in the Fighting Fifth and then further improvement a week later in the Hatton’s Grace. Then given a break and beaten by Limini on return before reversing that form at Cheltenham 3 weeks later. Other horses seem better fresh – The New One and recently retired Al Ferof (who I think won 4 or 5 seasons on the bounce first time out but then did not seem to carry on the form) are ones that spring to mind.
Hi Steve,
Short answer is that pretty much every horse is different. Some would happily run and run to form every week (rare, but they are out there). Others would want many weeks between races. Best Mate was a classic example. Hen Knight said he took an awful lot out of himself in every race (not a thing a form student would have been able to spot).
There are some who, through their racing style you might reasonably take a view on. For example, I thought after the Game Spirit that although Altior had won it imperiously, his exuberance that day in both galloping and jumping would leave its mark.
In other cases, the manner in which a race is run offers sufficient circumstantial evidence to take a view: this year’s RSA for example. Even though Might Bite jig-jogged back down to the winner’s enclosure, he surely took a monstrous amount out of himself in that race.
Some races will finish a horse for life – the National probably the best example and the damage probably mental rather than physical. Ballabriggs perhaps a recent example of this.
I think it’s a hugely important factor, but as said above, completely dependant on the horse. Certainly don’t neglect it, but look at what the horse has done previously after a break or quick turn around, rather than looking for the “perfect” time off.
I would be very reluctant to back a horse in it’s first start of a season without it having run well in similar circumstances before, likewise if it’s only had a short time off. But then there are many other variables such as it’s last race being an 8 minute slog in heavy ground vs a fall at first!
I’ve had the year catch me out a few times on this too. Embarrassingly at the last minute I saw Arctic fire at a huge 25/1 at the festival this year, thought it was a little odd, couldn’t remember him running this season, but a quick check revealed he had run well in January, so bit of money on and easy profit I thought. It was only after he won that I twigged his last run was actually January 2016! Got a bit lucky there, but such a reliable horse and strong weight carrier that he was probably worth backing EW anyway.
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