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There are lies, damned lies and stats.
I’m very wary of reading too much into stats & trends but some people’s analysis of them is highly informative. Those are the ones to note.
Trends are what is known as a ‘Logical Fallacy’ ..
This type of logical fallacy makes a premature conclusion about cause and effect from there only being some relationship between two or more factors. Generally, if one factor (A) is observed to only be correlated with another factor (B), it is often misunderstood that A is automatically causing B even though no evidence supports a cause and effect relationship. Because it is erroneously assumed that A must be causing B, this is a logical fallacy because there are at least three other possibilities: (1.) B may be the cause of A, or (2.) some unknown third factor is actually the cause of the relationship between A and B, or (3.) the "relationship" is merely coincidental (i.e., two events occurring at the same time that have no relationship to each other besides the fact that they are occurring at the same time). In other words, (1.) there can be no conclusion made regarding the directionality of a possible cause and effect relationship when A is only correlated with B, and (2.) in a correlation between two factors there is always the possibility that a third unknown factor is the cause of the relationship between A and B. To determine whether there is an actual cause and effect relationship requires further scientific investigation, even in cases in which the relationship between A and B is determined to be a "perfect" statistical correlation (i.e., statistically a +1 or -1 coefficient, which means in every case one factor is either always present with the other or always absent).
I’ll just add another aspect..trainer B Hills has a very good record in the race <br>3/8 vsp +76%
is that relevant to this sort thing?
I used to dismiss this type of trend as simply being little more than coinicdence without any logical explanation. For me, there has to be at least a theory to back things up
But I notice this with B Hills. he really does seem to target the same races (and meetings) year after year. Like a lot of us, trainers are simply creatures of habit<br>
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