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Of more interest judging by youur scoop 6 posts Rory, what is Mounty’s tissue please?
Looks like I’ve got Cast Iron Casey’s chance all wrong. On looking through this horses form though I can’t see why he’s as short as he is.
Hernando’s Boy I agree is overpriced approx.16/1 on Betfair
Fist,
Where did I say I make 16%, I wish!
May be over a shortish period.
From memory my best year 23%, second best 18%, one I think was 15%, but also had 4%, 0.5% and -3%.
Wiinning percentages can not be compared with a bank or building society.
With betting if you have your first bet of £10 and it wins, never going in to the red. Then you are re-investing money the bookmaker has paid out. Therefore, you may have staked £100,000 in all bets and you’re only £1000 up after a year, but the only money not to have come from the bookmaker is that original £10.
Where as with a building society all the money you invest is your own, none has come from the building society itself until it gives you the interest at the end of the year.
So your original investment of £10 with a bookie has made considerably more than what it would be investing £10 with a building society.
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With a bookmakers mark up; if a punter relies on luck then he is more likely to make a profit the fewer bets he has.
If he studies form and percentages, is good at odds compiling and knows he averages around say 8% profit a year. Then as long as he spends as much time as he always does and does not become complaicent. "The odds say" the more often he bets the more he will win. 8% of £8000 is £640. 8% of £80,000 is £6,400.
So you say by having 3 bets and the first one wins, you can have two free bets? That is the way to the poor house. A punter should not have free bets or fun bets. If he does, all it does is give back all the profit. Any winnings from a bookie / exchange is YOUR well earnt money, not leant by the bookie or money to fritter away.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingYep got Cast Iron Casey totally wrong. Good job I aint a bookie lol.
One winner / loser means nothing. How do we know Cast Iron Katy was not a true 6% chance that happened to win?
You might have been right Ian.
Keep doing it, even if you don’t think you got it right, practice.
I made a loss when I started.
Mark
Value Is EverythingIf I ever meet the idiot that resurrected this thread from whatever cesspit it was lying in, murder may result…..
Not a chance if I see you first Carv!
You can blame Ian and Himself for asking me a question in the Ascot Hurdle thread. And others for saying our debate had nothing to do with the thread title.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingO.K.
Here is my 100% book (prices to beat) on the 2:40 at Newbury tomorrow. If there is significant rain there will be changes. For example Bob Bob Bobbin and Portland Bill’s chance would increase, the two Henderson horses decrease.
Prices are for soft going.
Kings Brook 0.5% 200/1 (66/1)
Portland Bill 4% 25/1 (16/1)
Loulou Nivernais 2.5% 40/1 (25/1)
Charles Future 3% 33/1 (22/1)
Alright Now M’Lord 6% 16/1 (13/1)
Briery Fox 14.25% 6/1 (11/2)
Aztec Warrior 3% 33/1 (22/1)
Bob Bob Bobbin 1.5% 66/1 (33/1)
Double Dizzy 20% 4/1 (100/30)
Chiaro 6.75% 14/1 (11/1)
Appleaday 5% 20/1 (14/1)
Jean Le Poisson 10.5% 17/2 (7/1)
High Oscar 13.5%13/2 (11/2)
Pepsybrook 9% 9/1 (8/1)Double Dizzy and High Oscar currently available at 5/1 and 9/1 look the best bets now. Would be the two in particular I would expect to shorten. Though both are ridden by conditionals which some punters are put off by.
Pepsyrock looks good too but it’s his reappearance, for a new stable, on jockey bookings looks the second string and may not be suited by a test if there is (as seems) a lot of rain. So is difficult to quantify.
Prices in brackets are my prices plus a relative mark up so as you can judge it against a bookmakers price.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingI also think Isn’t That Lucky is value at around 8.6/1 in the 12:55.
High Blue will only win if the others fall.
Isn’t That Lucky ran an encouraging race first time out, acts well on soft, should stay further so a test at the trip of 2m1f should suit. Stable in better form now. Has a bit to find on his two main rivals but worth the chance at the price.
Pasco is a horse I like, made for fences, his very round action is perfect for soft ground. Also encouraging debut at Exeter. Had hoped to save on him, trouble is he’s odds on.
Straw Bear finished in front of Pasco at Exeter before running o.k.at Cheltenham. For me has not convinced over fences with his jumping, is not the biggest and may not be able to convert his hurdle form. Also has brittle feet and not the most consistent because of it.Hold Em at 7.6/1 looks interesting as does Tartak at 4.2/1. Though I would not be at all surprised if Gone To Lunch is a non-runner as he is probably better away from very soft going. Therefore backing them both as main bets may not be the best option. Have had a small bet on each and will decide which too back again when I am there.
Tartak jumped exceptionally well in front last time and may get a soft lead again here.
Hold Em was a decent hurdler on all sorts of ground. Improved when third to Breedzbreese at Wincanton last time. Stays 3m, if he were trained by a top trainer would be quite a bit shorter.
The Tother One is the one who might go on to be a top novice but his temperament is suspect. Threw away a winning chance at Cheltenham last season. Best held up for as long as possible. Looks one to oppose at very short prices.
Crescent Island looks a dog and Ouste ain’t good enough.Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is EverythingCrescent Island has bags of ability (as much as the majority of the field IMO) on his day – just look at his debut last year. Trouble is he has a mind of his own, he’s cocked his jaw more than once and downed tools totally on at least one other occasion.
Tbh most races with him in are "no bet" races IMO.
Have put these "tips" in here as it has to do with the value question, hope that is alright but if you want to move them that is fine.
Mark
The Ginger PreacherValue Is Everything
- Total Posts 158
ginge how long does it take you to work out a race with the system you use..
Crescent Island looks a dog
Perhaps he just needs company? His four runs in fields of 12 or more runners have produced figures of: 1311 (3-4). He could be the sort of horse who struggles in these small-field Pattern races then pops up at a silly price in a big-field handicap chase at Cheltenham or Aintree.
Surprised nobody pulled me up on the 99.5% book and Pepsyrock 9% 9/1.
(9% is 10/1). Coppied it down wrong, should have been 9.5% Pepsyrock.Did not have any winners from the three races I bet in today. Three seconds and a third.
Mark
Value Is Everything
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