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Thought I would start this thread for the QE II as it’s quite a biggie, I’m
surprised it hadn’t already been started.It has been whittled down to 9 players now, so it’s easier to have an opinion
on it now.There is still some doubt about the participation of GLENEAGLES owing to the
going, but if it is decent racing ground, I won’t win many plaudits for
pointing out that this looks a match between him and SOLOW.GLENEAGLES form is top notch and rock solid. Easily the best horse in both
the 2000 Guineas and the Irish version, and looked impressive in the
ST James Palace Stakes, although that wasn’t the strongest renewal of
the race and it would have been a major disappointment if he hadn’t taken that
as easily as he did.SOLOW has looked impressive in every race over the past couple of years, although
he was given a good race last time out by Arod in the Sussex Stakes. SOLOW is
evens with GLENEAGLES on offer at 2/1. If the ground dries out sufficently, I
wouldn’t look past GLENEAGLES but if there is still a fair bit of juice in it,
SOLOW would have the edge.I took the chance a few days ago, slightly hoping that the ground might rule out
GLENEAGLES, (simply from a betting point of view) of taking ELM PARK e/w at
20/1. He looked top notch when he won the Juddmonte and the Racing Post
Trophy. The bubble kind of burst a bit when he was beaten by Golden Horn
in the Dante, when he looked like possibly winning before fading in the final
furlong.He didn’t settle well in the Derby, but still looked like he had every chance before
fading in the last 2 furlongs.I think he is still a very good horse, but I think his strengths are at 1 mile, not the
10 1/2 furlongs of the Dante or the 12 furlongs of the Derby. He looked well and won
easily on his return after a break over 8 furlongs at Sandown, and although it wasn’t
that strong a field, he at least looked well.I think that at 20/1 (Ladbrokes still stand this) he is a very decent e/w shout. He
will handle the ground whatever it is, and if for any reason GLENEAGLES doesn’t
take his place, his chances are obviously even better. If that were the case, in all
likelihood SOLOW should take this, but they always say never be scared of one horse
in a race. I am scared of him, but at 20/1 ELM PARK, still is the best gamble, even if just placed.Best of luck
Regardless of his ground issues, I still find it hard to believe that people put so much faith in Gleneagles actual form this year. Take a look at it as to me it doesn’t stand up to too much scrutiny imho:
2000 Guineas – beat Territories just over 2L, Ivawood by 3L and Dutch Connection (7th) just under 8L
Irish 2000 – beat Endless Drama 3/4L, Ivawood just over 1L, Belardo just uner 2L
SJP – beath Latharnach 2.5L, Consort 3L and a below par Make Believe (who finished last) by 13LTerritories won a G1 in France beating Dutch Connection by 0.5L and was then was beaten 1.5L by Esoterique in the Marois (the same Esoterique that Solow comfortably beat 1L in Queen Anne)
Ivawood since the Irish 2000 has been beaten a total of 38L in three races
Dutch Connection won G3 Jersey St at Royal Ascot then finished 2nd to Territories in France before being beaten 0.75L by Toormore in G2
Endless Drama has not run since Irish 2000
Belardo has been beaten a total of 18.5L in 4 races following Irish 2000
Latharnach was a beaten favourite in a G3 in his only race since SJP
Consort beaten over 10F in a Listed race in his only run since SJP
Make Believe returned back to form when winning his next race in G1 Foret on Arc weekendEven if you forgive him for underperforming in Irish 2000g due to the ground (although it was technically only a 2L worse run if you take into account how far Ivawood was beaten) it still doesn’t scream out to me that he is an outstanding miler. If he got his favoured fast ground Saturday (highly unlikely) on a line through the Territories/Esoterique he still has a lot to find with Solow who has been trained specifically for this race, whilst Gleneagles clearly hasn’t.
The fact that the ground will be just on the easier side of good (will favour Solow more) and would not be much different than the ground he encountered in Irish 2000g and pretty much the same ground that was the reason why he no showed at both York & Leopardstown, so Aiden would be going against all previous form if he lets him run this time.
Don’t you also find it very strange that they shy away from risking him on good to soft ground but plan to run him in the Breeders Cup Classic over 10F on dirt?
For me Solow would have to underperform to be beaten (even if Gleneagles runs), my main worry for him is that I wonder just who is going to make the running as it could turn out to be quite a tactical race and that sometimes can produce odd results.
Aiden is walking the course all night and day.
Anything he can do really to keep the taps turned off.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Hi LD73, I respect your view, although I don’t necessarily agree with your conclusions.
I think winning distances, and the subsequent form of those beaten can, and should,
be taken into account, but I think it’s a little unsafe to base the evaluation of
a horse solely on those. It becomes a little mathematical without judging what you see.
Ryan Moore didn’t go into the 2000 Guineas to win by 5 or 10 lengths, he rode the race
to win, and beat everything in front of him, comfortably.Again, at the Curragh, on ground that wasn’t particularly to his liking, he won well.
The fact that he won, not liking the ground, I think says a great deal about the horse.Back on g/firm, in the St James Palace Stakes he waited until he wanted to make his move,
and went past them easily. It’s an old saying in racing, but you can only beat what’s in
front of you.I’m not convinced GLENEAGLES will run, I’m not sure the ground will be good enough. If
Aiden O’brien decides tomorrow that he will handle the ground, and the ground is no
worse than good, then in my opinion, and it is only my opinion, I think GLENEAGLES will
win. Time will tell if I’m right, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong, but
there you go.Good luck with whatever you bet, I enjoyed reading your piece. Reading differing opinions
is what makes this forum interesting. It would be pretty boring if it was a mutual
admiration society.15/8 from 7/2 Something fishy going on here!!
Final decs, so cash back now if he doesn’t run
BigG – Not really looking to have a bet in the race now as I am also of the opinion that he will not run (assuming connections stick to their explanation for his other no shows this year) so a big Rule 4 deduction likely on all bets.
Whilst I think he is a good horse, I see him as more a case of style over substance and if they did roll the dice and run him, it is clearly going to be on ground that is not going to show him at his best. Therefore you could expect a similar laboured performance from him as to the one he delivered in Irish 2000g which will simply not be good enough to win this race (no guarantee that it will even be good enough to get a place either) – that is the reason I don’t quite understand why the so called TV/press judgesare all saying that he will via for favouritism and will give Solow all he can handle if he runs.
While I expect Solow to win, he is far too short a price currently (likely to go odds on if Gleneagles gets pulled out) and I would think that Integral (on a form line with Esoterique), Kodi Bear & Elm Park will be scrapping it out for the minor places.
LD73, I can understand your reasoning for not having a bet on this. I
pretty much thought, when the race was still ante post, that GLENEAGLES
was an unlikely runner, and also that SOLOW was too short at around evens to
make much of a betting proposition. That was why I put up ELM PARK e/w at
20/1, I thought that if GLENEAGLES doesn’t run the only major worry is
SOLOW. Even if placed at 20/1 behind SOLOW, he still gets a bigger return
than betting SOLOW at evens. There is always the chance that it turns into
a messy race, or SOLOW has an off day, and that puts ELM PARK in with a
chance of winning.I do think ELM PARK is a better horse than he showed in the Dante and the
Derby. I think he is much better over 8f and will be surprised if he isn’t
at least placed.I’ve put my money where my mouth is ante post, time will tell if I’ve gone
the right way or not.Best of luck
This is a much better a race than the Champion and Kodi Bear looks the potential fly in the ointment to me.
I’ll risk him ew.
BUY THE SUN
Final decs, so cash back now if he doesn’t run
cheers
completely forgotWell here we go, I’m not sure O’Brien wanted to run him going by the interview, but “the boys” get the shout.
I’m nt sure they r right.
Come on ELM ParkO’Brien right, the boys wrong. I can’t think why they would want to
run him in these conditions.Anyway, congratulations to Freddy Head and the connections, SOLOW
deserved his victory.I really thought ELM PARK had a great chance, I’m just not sure
he had to go off like a scalded cat.Oh well, back to the drawing board
O’Brien right, the boys wrong. I can’t think why they would want to
run him in these conditions.Anyway, congratulations to Freddy Head and the connections, SOLOW
deserved his victory.I really thought ELM PARK had a great chance, I’m just not sure
he had to go off like a scalded cat.Oh well, back to the drawing board
What conditions? It’s flat racing and it’s not heavy ground you know. Possibly more the case that the horse was ring rusty, he hasn’t run since Royal Ascot. It’s all very well winning the Guineas off a lay off but it’s another thing winning an all aged group one after such an absence. No-one can tell me that earlier in the season Gleneagles wouldn’t have beaten Gabriel on ANY ground. This is what can happen when you start molly coddling horses and not running them.
My fear now for the future is that Aiden and “the boys” will become even more paranoid over the going.
Solow does exactly what it says on the tin – nothing flashy just gets the job done time after time after time, good to know he will be around next year as well.
I noticed Elm Park (5th) was wearing a Frankel cross noseband instead of the regular sheepskin noseband – he ran really well considering he once again still didn’t settle properly (although not as bad as Kodi Bear early on) and once they can get him to settle I think he will be a player in all the 8F G1s next year (assuming he stays in training).
Gleneagles ran as I expected him to – Aiden was interviewed and said in hindsight he would not have run him but he needed to run as the next stop is BC Classic, I don’t think he is good enough for that race even before you take into account its is 10F and on dirt, surely the BC Mile is his best option.
Haven’t changed my opinion that he is nothing more than a good miler (on faster ground) but not the supestar horse Ballydoyle would have you believe him to be.
O’Brien right, the boys wrong. I can’t think why they would want to
run him in these conditions.Anyway, congratulations to Freddy Head and the connections, SOLOW
deserved his victory.I really thought ELM PARK had a great chance, I’m just not sure
he had to go off like a scalded cat.Oh well, back to the drawing board
What conditions? It’s flat racing and it’s not heavy ground you know. Possibly more the case that the horse was ring rusty, he hasn’t run since Royal Ascot. It’s all very well winning the Guineas off a lay off but it’s another thing winning an all aged group one after such an absence. No-one can tell me that earlier in the season Gleneagles wouldn’t have beaten Gabriel on ANY ground. This is what can happen when you start molly coddling horses and not running them.
My fear now for the future is that Aiden and “the boys” will become even more paranoid over the going.
What conditions?, the going was good to soft, those conditions. I’m not saying the conditions were bad, they were
decent racing conditions. It is the fact that GLENEAGLES is a horse that really needs good/firm or good at the worst.
The horse doesn’t handle any ground with the word “soft” anywhere in it.You are absolutely right that the various cancellations had the horse not at his best, but they were cancelled
because they knew he wouldn’t run well on ground that was similar to today’s. Which is why I don’t understand why they
ran him. It was pretty obvious before the race that O’Brien was reluctant to run him, but it wasn’t his call.After the race O’Brien stated :-
“We knew coming here that he has been prepared to run four times and not run and that the ground was not ideal,” said O’Brien. “If I had the chance again I wouldn’t have run him and I would have waited like last time.”So that was all I was talking about, I wasn’t saying the conditions were bad, just that GLENEAGLES is a horse
that needs better ground, and should’t have run.Not having that Big G. Won the Irish 2000 on Yielding for a kick off.
He still beat Territories, I think we should ignore the usual ground nonsense and reach the conclusion the Guineas form has turned out to be ordinary.
If they’d skipped today, an illusion of a crack miler heading to stud may have been achieved.
So many conflicting messages from Ballydoyle I think they have confused themselves. Gleneagles cannot act on anything but fast ground, a classic winner on good to yielding. A pure miler, entered in various 10f races and aimed for the B.C. Classic on dirt.
Bizarre.
BUY THE SUN
completely forgot
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