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Petit Robin looked awesome on Saturday, and could be worth backing ew at 16-1.
Opinions?
Despite a daily effort to remain detached and scientific, so much in this game is emotional. I must confess Master Minded’s lofty rating in last years QM caused more than a little consternation in the shabby household. Having followed Moscow Flyer with a fierce (and rewarded) loyalty since its novice hurdle days I was close to rage when the rating for MM was published. My wife said I was like a kettle boiling over.
My thinking was along these lines…the best novice hurdler in Ireland, able to defeat Istabraq, a glorious novice chasing season, dual Tingle Creek champ, peerless in Ireland, twice Champion Chaser against worthy and stellar champions in Flagship U, Azertyuiop and Well Chief and unbeaten when completing until his dotage…all this and they give this bloody five year old upstart 186 for caning VPU….ffs.I have calmed down a wee bit in the 9 months since and I hope I can appreciate a very good horse but part of me wants that rating to be disproved or for MM’s achievments to be so spectacular even a fan who’s heart is elsewhere to be convinced.
and rightly so Shabby. It would be wonderful to think he was superior to Moscow Flyer but that is a huge mountain he has to climb before he can be thought of in those terms.
No matter what a handicapper might think one race does not make a true champion.
If he can do to Tidal Bay, excuse free, what he did to VPU and co then he would be well on his way to perhaps one day justifying that rating or maybe even hitting a high spot most of us only see once in a life time.
The thing that gets about the MM saga is what happens if Tidal Bay 166 beats Master Minded 186 fair and square by 6 lengths……….does he then be come the highest rated steeplechaser in the contry or does the expert behind this foolish system say" Duh! that can’t be right" and knock spots of MM. All I can say is thank goodness I don’t depend on them to pick winners.
Shabby, I do agree with your assertion about the MM’s rating compared to that of Moscow. It doesn’t ‘feel’ right, but unfortunately longevity and hurdling successes don’t come into the equation.
It’s the only way to get some kind of objective opinion on their relative merits. Just like in Athletics the only way to do this (i.e. compare eras) is by time/distance etc..
MM did something akin to what Usain Bolt did in Beijing with his Cheltenham romp IMO. I genuinely think that had a prime MF been there on the day, he would’ve fallen 3 or 4 lengths behind. I still think of Bob Hayes and Carl Lewis as the greatest sprinters that ever lived but the truth of th matter is that Bolt would’ve blown them away. Maybe this isn’t a great example, just trying to suggest that longevity, ‘greatness’ and championship wins shouldn’t cloud our judgement when assessing anyone on their pure form. MM didn’t replicate it on Saturday but he swatted off some decent horses with consumate ease, and I certainly feel that on that evidence, fuly wound up we’ll see another performace of at least 185 later in the year
Fair enough, aaronizneez, though there’s very little in your post I agree with.
I guess my take is that ED has been unfortunate to run into horses the calibre of Kauto Star, and that’s why he doesn’t have too many in the Win column of late.
Conversely, VPU has often been found wanting whenever he has encountered anything with pretensions to top-class. I simply don’t subscribe to the theory that his Arkle and Queen Mother wins were much cope – beating horses who wanted further in his Arkle, and beating a poor field in receipt of an allowance in his Champion Chase.
True but he did beat a horse rated 186 at Aintree off levels
He beat a horse who was stopped in his tracks by Ruby Walsh´s stupidity at Aintree.
RP online report that Well Chief could make his return in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
RP online report that Well Chief could make his return in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
Nothing like being chucked in at the deepend.
Would love to see him back.
A spectating race for me, couldnt back Masterminded at his price and wouldnt fancy taking him on with anything as he can run 10lbs below form and still beat his opposition.
I was browsing the ante-post market and noticed Briareus quoted at a best-priced 25/1.
His novice form with I’msingingtheblues has worked out well and I thought he ran a cracker over a trip too far in the King George on only his fourth outing over fences.
He has also landed a Kingwell Hurdle and finished sixth in a Champion Hurdle – obviously a horse with ability and open to improvement over fences.
Andrew Balding maintains that he is better in small fields and I can’t see there being more than eight / ten runners on the day. Of those looking to take their chance, Big Zeb has a few questions to answer after his fall, Twist Magic has never operated around Cheltenham, Petit Robin was destroyed at Ascot and Well Chief is coming back from injury.
Does anyone know if he’s an intended runner in the race? He holds no other entries at The Festival. Looks a nice ew bet, in my opinion.
Well i’ve backed him at 10s without MM. What else is there for him to be worried about?
I just want to say i wish Well Cheif runs well on Wednesday and comes back in top form.
A very classy horse and will be great to see him back again.
I just want to say i wish Well Cheif runs well on Wednesday and comes back in top form.
A very classy horse and will be great to see him back again.
I’ve backed him at every Festival and he’s always given me a good run for my money (except ’07!!), especially when he won the Arkle in ’04.
I went to my first Champion Chase in ’05 to see him lock horns with Moscow Flyer and what a titanic battle they had.
It would be great to see him run well and he’s certainly an ew candidate. I’ll have a few quid on him, along with Briareus.
Just hope he comes back safe.
Briareus was pretty much the panels ew tip for the QM; we’ve backed him ew on the strength of that. I think the trainer said he wasn’t quite sure of his best trip..thought he ran a great race in the King George albeit obviously not staying that distance.
Briareus was pretty much the panels ew tip for the QM; we’ve backed him ew on the strength of that. I think the trainer said he wasn’t quite sure of his best trip..thought he ran a great race in the King George albeit obviously not staying that distance.
Tidal Bay has now been taken out.
It’s an awful renewal. Briaeus jumps well and he ran with such credit in the King George despite his inexperience and failure to see out the trip. His form with I’msingingtheblues isn’t too shabby, either, albeit in novice company.
With question marks over just about everything except the favourite, I fancy him to sneak a place.
I think backing EW in this race is a bad move and a far better bet is without MM.
It looks a stone wall certainty Big Zeb, Well Chief or Petit Robin will be second
eg if you fancy Petit Robin to beat Well Chief and Big Zeb you can have 9/2 on which is effectively a 3 horse race for 2nd.
Twist Magic won’t stay a yard and he and Briareus have no chance IMO
I think backing EW in this race is a bad move and a far better bet is without MM.
It looks a stone wall certainty Big Zeb, Well Chief or Petit Robin will be second
eg if you fancy Petit Robin to beat Well Chief and Big Zeb you can have 9/2 on which is effectively a 3 horse race for 2nd.
Twist Magic won’t stay a yard and he and Briareus have no chance IMO
Twist Magic is a funny bugger I wouldn’t completely rule him out. Sure he looks like a short runner but then he had a reputation as being a good ground horse then last time ran a stinker on ground that should’ve been fine for him. Perhaps he’s just one of those horses performs when he wants to? I have a feeling Albertas Run is much the same another that is apparently a good ground horse yet he’s won four times on ground officially described as soft or heavy.
If anything can cause a huge shock it’ll possibly be Twist Magic though I don’t realy expect him to beat Master Minded obviously.
Nothing funny about him Ian. I honestly don’t think he stays a true run 2 miles and has absolutely no chance of being in the shake up.
Last year he wasn’t of a yard in the race IMO as PN knew he couldn’t possibly win.
I think it was a well laid out plan pre Ireland and I think the same thing will happen again.
Who is going to bat an eyelid if he’s beaten into 4rth or 5th behind MM. No one could care less as no one expects him to win.
Doubt what I am saying? Go back and watch how easy his jockey was on him when MM kicked last year.
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