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Paddy Power have a false early favourite in this Soft Falling Rain on the back of beating Hannon’s 4th choice miler Montiridge and Premio Loco who is older than Billion, having said that I think it might be best to keep safe your penny’s until the Champion miler Toronado is confirmed to take his place.
Soft Falling Rain (9/4), Dawn Approach (5/2), Toronado (4), Declaration of War (6), Farhh (6), Olympic Glory (6), Maxios (7), Sky Lantern (7), Magician (8), Gordon Lord Byron (9), Elusive Kate (12), Leitir Mor (66)
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Keep your powder dry is my advice.
The ground conditions will play a major factor. With the QE11 now run on the straight mile at Ascot, I do think this will not be to Toronado’s advantage.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I do find it strange how they can have Soft Falling Rain a favourite over the other horses entered in this race.
With a few crocks in the field and recovery missions on the agenda, I would rather have a go at Maxios if it turns up soft. He thrashed odds-on shot Olympic Glory last time under those conditions and let us not forget that when the latter ran a cracker behind Moonlight Cloud, in third place we had Intello, who some want us to believe has now improved to be third in the Arc.
Maxios has tended to be racing over further than a mile but he has kept some rather strong company over those trips, and at least he would be coming here at something like the top of his game, which cannot be said of several who are ahead of him in the betting. Perhaps unexposed over a mile at 5 years of age, I would chance him over horses such as Farhh, Toronado, Magician and Dawn Approach who have had problems alongside the high points this year.
Wait on the weather and "Max" out if it’s soft. He’s 7/1 with Paddy Power at the moment, while a totally tanked Olympic Glory is a point shorter when he’ll be two pounds worse off if they both line up again.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Dawn Approach
should be favourite and should be difficult to beat if recapturing his best. But I’ll look elseware for the value. Apparently scoped badly after Marois failure, or may be he just wasn’t over the Goodwood clash with Toronado. Either way, has question marks to answer. Not least on ground issues, yet to race on soft/heavy, though goes very well on good-soft.
When Dawn Approach was blotting his copy book in the Marois –
Olympic Glory
was putting up his best ever performance in defeat, failing by only a short head to catch Moonlight Cloud. There were some people who thought Frankie left it too late that day. But with the race truly run he probably came from an advantageous position, there’s a chance he’s flattered, with the mare idling too. That form isn’t far behind Dawn Approach’s best. Third and fourth Intello and Declaration Of War certainly did nothing to devalue it in the Arc/International. If reproducing the Marois form will give them all something to think about. It was on a sound surface, but we know from last year’s Lagadere he goes well on very soft ground. Trouble is Olympic Glory ran poorly last time, 5 lengths second to Maxios.
Just how good is the
Maxios
/Moulin form? Only Maxios followed the no hoper pacemaker at all closely. Daylight back to the others from an early stage, with the odds-on Olympic Glory settled behind all. It is possible the Hannon horse raced lazily – now has headgear – but was given a lot to do even so. 5 lengths was the verdict, but it was far more than that coming in to the home straight. As the comentator said "Maxios probably stole it". Third Anodin has since been beaten over 6 lengths by Moonlight Cloud. At face value the seemingly good but exposed Maxios improved dramatically on everything he’s done before. However, is it more likely he was the recipient of a particularly good ride? In my opinion more the latter than former. Best effort prior to the Moulin half a length win over Planteur in the D’Isphahan. What price would Marco Botti’s horse be in the QEII? Although it does not rule Maxios out as a winner on Saturday – particularly on ground he likes – it does mean in my opinion the value’s gone. I’d be more inclined to take a chance on Olympic Glory at a similar price.
Can not see
Toronado
,
Declaration Of War
,
Soft Falling Rain
,
Magician
or
Farhh
running in this.
Gordon Lord Byron
has to prove his stamina in this company. Would love the ground, but whether he’d stay the trip in a truly run race is doubtful.
Top Notch Tonto
is intriguing, improving at a rate of knots at lower levels this season. Needs to take another long step foreward, but the way he’s going would not be a suprise if doing so. Goes well enough on good-soft to suggest softer would not inconvenience him.
Elusive Kate
would be an interesting runner for me. I could do with either Farhh, Olympic Glory or Elusive Kate winning on Saturday for me to have a chance of winning the WBRC Ten To Follow. Unfortunately, can’t quite see her being good enough unless given a soft lead.
Gregorian
is another from the Gosden stable, he’s had enough chances to say place prospects at best.
I’ve backed
Olympic Glory
@ 9/2.
Value Is EverythingOlympic Glory will be my selection was given far too much to do last time and I would ignore that run. Straight mile and ground will suit. His 2nd to Moonlight Cloud is looking very good. Dawn Approach is a worthy fav but worth taking on with ground conditions.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Trainer Johnathan Pease said an odd thing regarding Maxios:-
Pease told The Telegraph: "He seems to like soft ground and it was heavy in the Moulin so he should go on it. The ground was probably too fast for him and the distance too far in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Ascot in June. He’s a better miler.
If this is the case it seems odd that Maxios has only tackled the mile distance once since his 2yo debut, even trying one and a half miles behind Aiken on one occasion. As I said earlier, I believe the horse is unexposed at the mile trip but if his trainer believes it to be his optimum trip he hasn’t given the horse much opportunity to show it.
I wouldn’t touch Dawn Approach at the price he is. Other than his Guineas win we have a horror run in the Derby, a narrow win when looking like Toronado had the better of him, a defeat to the same horse and then a flop when something was amiss. Overall I think he is slightly a hype horse and I have a doubt that a mile on really soft is what he wants. I would try a Maxios/Olympic Glory Don Revie Forecast.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s no secret where my loyalties lye in this one and conditions are perfect for Dawn Approach to bow out with his final Group 1.
Have been following Top Notch Tonto with interest this year and would expect that he might have improved enough to take a place in this but I couldn’t see him beating Dawn Approach or Olympic Glory.
My 1,2,3 would read
DAWN APPROACH
Olympic Glory
Top Notch TontoIt’s been a great flat season I’ve enjoyed every minute of it.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Maxios isn’t a price I want to bet at 5/1 currently. We don’t know which DA will turn up. The 2000 winner probably wins this race as does the Dewhurst winner but perhaps not the runner of his last two races and if it is truly soft will that help or hinder him. For me he’s not a horse that wants truly testing ground.
It seems obvious but why are OG and Max the same price?? Max totally outgunned him last time and tactics or not the best horse won clearly on the day. Hardly a hard luck story. If the DA that won the Guineas and Dewhurst turns up then he’d be a shoe in (or maybe not). But surely at 5/1 or 9/2 the place Maxios rates a cracking EW bet? That’s were my money will be going anyway – in the 3 money back or small profit, wins and happy days. It is a wide open race though and you can make cases for many. The way Maxios won the Moulin stamped him as a classy individual who should be less inconvenienced by the ground than many and for me you can back him EW or double your stake the single, if he has travelled over well is sure to run well. An EW bet seems to be the way to go for me.
Maxios isn’t a price I want to bet at 5/1 currently.
But surely at 5/1 or 9/2 the place Maxios rates a cracking EW bet? That’s were my money will be going anyway –
if he has travelled over well is sure to run well. An EW bet seems to be the way to go for me.
Do you mean Olympic Glory "isn’t a price you want" jpaul?
"if he travelled over well", Maxios appeared to lose the Prince Of Wales before the gates opened, sweated up. May be he does not "travel".
Value Is EverythingThe fact they are the same price seems inconsistent to me. Maxios seemed to beat OG hands down easy last time – shouldn’t it be Maxios is half price of OG at least. Granted he might not run his race but on the last performance he should be much shorter. He’s always been there or thereabouts for big races perhaps he is just coming to himself in a late maturing Niarchos family line?
Well I don’t see the value of taking 5/1 OG when you can take the same price a horse who beat him easily/comfortably/irreversibly (lol) last time. So no I won’t take less than 10/1 OG though he won me cash as a 2yo.
OG was a little lazy in France last time. Blinkered up here and Hannon is wanting the trainers title and this his main bullet of the day.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Good a time as ever to take on Dawn Approach here. Olympic Glory was a license to print money last year and this looks absolutely perfect for him. Farce of a race last time out, will turn over form with Maxios, off the back of his run in the Marois he has a big chance here, the wetter it gets the better.
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