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“Unexposed over the trip” no, you mean, hasnt ran over the trip, potent turn of foot over a much shorter trip against inferior rivals, shes beaten absolutely nothing bar continuous who wasnt the same horse then, but he wont be winning this either, not interested in the japan stat, thats pointless aswell, only relative to who they have sent, and the majoroty of those bar orfevre and deep impact where average, id say she had as rough a trip round lto as equinox, look shes 14/1, its alot easier to take a view on her at that price than ace impacts, if she was 4/1 id be laying back…. but im expecting japans wait to be over come this time sunday
I dont believe ace impact will win and ill be a layer at 3s and below, if your on e/w @6+ id have a slightly different opinion, but hes as bad a fav for this that ive seen,
Obviously mike the stats are part of your form judgement, how many horses in the last 30 years have won this stepping up to the distance for the first time?
If it is really soft continuous will be running on at the finish but don’t see him winning. Feed the flame probably the value bet IMHO.
“I dont believe ace impact will win and ill be a layer at 3s and below, if your on e/w @6+ id have a slightly different opinion, but hes as bad a fav for this that ive seen”
“Obviously mike the stats are part of your form judgement, how many horses in the last 30 years have won this stepping up to the distance for the first time?”I’m on at 10s ew. But i would’ve backed him at the 7-2ish this week anyway if I wasn’t on already.
Not concerned he’s not raced over 12f yet, he just didn’t take in the trials where he would’ve done and arrives here fresh instead.Mickey fyi, 27 degrees on sunday, unless there watering it into oblivion, ittl be nowhere near soft
Continuous looks excellent value at 6/1: in fine form, improving, has speed and class, stays, top jock and trainer.
Caveat punter: the last time I backed an Arc winner, Lester was claiming 7.
Two German horses interest me here. Fantastic Moon needs the ground good if he’s to make a mark here, and his best form is up to anything lese on show. The weather forecast suggests drying conditions , while I fancy Mr Hollywood will step up on Baden-Baden form if it remains soft. The latter is yet to run a bad race and two wins have come on heavy, but I’ll hold off on a selection until nearer off time.
Rouget’s training expertise and success can’t be overlooked, of course.
Through Seven Seas is reportedly on the up, but has not yet won at this level. I saw a comment about the weight of Japanese competitors over the years which is worth thinking about.
https://en.netkeiba.com/news/news_detail.html?id=463
Equinox and TSS had the fastest speeds in the last section of the Takarazuka Kinen. Agree that TSS’s passage through was challenging, too.
Prediction is good to soft but heavy morning dew means might be closer to soft. Good to soft should mean no excuses from the main protagonists. Not sure continuous needs it soft as the scooted home on decent ground at York but probably needs it to be soft so his stamina comes into play. Think he will be a better 4yo so can see him running very close next season.
Good to soft in France is like good to firm over here i heard someone say on a podcast recently. Dont think it’ll be soft anyway, they won’t have had any rain all week.
If they say g/s ill assume its concrete there running on mike
Wouldnt pretend to know much about heavy morning dew mickey, but id be surprised at 27 degrees if by the racetime of 3.05 its not long gone… not sure on there watering, though
Tried posting a screenshot but no joy, firming up in Paris.
Time after the first suggests its atleast firmer than good based off previous years descriptions, anyone aware of watering protocols? The ground by this time tomorrows going to be GF
The Prix Chaudenay was almost 5 sec slow but as we know French races are notorious for being slowly run, so difficult to draw any conclusions based on that time but officially the ground is good to soft (we also know French going descriptions invariably are given slower than they actually are) so I suspect there is little to no soft parts out there.
Hopefully we get a well run race at some point today to get a true reflection of the ground but with bright sunshine currently it will continue to dry out even more – wonder if they will water overnight?
Judged by Racing Post standard times the first race was Slow by 4.95 secs. A few did take a bit of a hold so it is possible they didn’t go overly fast. If they went a decent pace then time alone suggests to me good-soft.
However, in my experience French race times are notoriously hard to evaluate.
eg Does anyone know how much they’ve railed out?
Suspect they’re saving the inner for tomorrow.Value Is EverythingCharles de Cordon, clerk of the course at ParisLongchamp, said: I would like to point out that the track is new, having not been used since July 14, because on the day of the Qatar Arc Trials the rail was at nine metres, so we now have eight metres of new ground for the weekend.
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