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If O’Brien or Fabre trained him I think he would be half the price.
You’d probably have a better idea on how he’d go softer ground trained by either of those though.
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Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!How have the horses who previously ran/won in that race today performed in the arc? Thats a question btw i dont know the answer to this, i am curious.
Some feat to be running at your peak in march, switch off presumably for a few months, to then have to switch it on for the winter months under a completely different climate/conditions
Couldnt be touching anything at 8/1 thats ran in meydan myself, i got bit with mendelssohn a while ago, i wont be laying at 8/1 but should he somehow go the next 6 months and turn up in current form and handle all the variables mentioned, id be laying him at that price
Has to be 8/1 to even get there surely?
We havent even seen a 3yo filly run yet…
The more im typing the more im realising its a terrible price at 8/1
Good luck
If he’d been trained by O’Brien or Fabre we would probably be having the reverse conversation re will he act on good to firm ground because he would have predominately been racing on watered soft ground.
Unfortunately, the report in the RP say connections indicated a trip to Paris is unlikely, citing what is these days the likelihood of testing ground. Clearly they see that as an issue and prepping him for that race on the off chance of decent ground only to get something like last year would be a wasted journey and could impact his prep for the Autumn races in Japan.
Having looked at the JPA website, I would imagine that the G1 Takarazuka Kinen on 25 June could be his next target (although the King George the following month could be an outside option but again weather/watering might be an obstacle) and then he will likely be given a break and be back in the Autumn where races like the Tenno Sho on 29 October (which he won last year), the Japan Cup on 26 November and then the Arima Kinen on 24 December (which he won last year) would be obvious targets.
Sad to say there is a strong possibility that we might not see him in Europe at all.
What about Deep Impact and Orfevre?
Deep Impact especially with the reputation he came with and they couldn’t conceieve of him being beaten the year he turned up.
Orfevre had the race in the bag
it was a WTF moment for sureBlackbeard to conquer the World
Neither Deep Impact nor Orfevre had the form claims that Equinox has. The former, especially, was hype over substance.
“the report in the RP say connections indicated a trip to Paris is unlikely, citing what is these days the likelihood of testing ground”
Not sure how old that quote was because when Nick Luck asked connections post race what the plans for the horse were they were non-committal.
Can we get together a list of likely runners that act on soft/heavy going so we can adequately hedge our bets for those that are that way inclined?
Auguste Rodin is around 14/1 for this, seems a very speculative punt given he hasn’t run as a 3yo yet, but if he wins the derby he’ll surely be vying for favouritism here and given he won the G1 at Doncaster last year over 1m on Heavy Going he’d be the obvious pick.
Desert Crown is also around 14/1 and won his maiden on soft, though that was at Nottingham so whether he’d be as effective in a proper race on soft/heavy going is another matter, plus he hasn’t seen a racecourse since his Derby win so would be another leap of faith bet.
Having said that, if you want decent odds sometimes you need to take a bit of a leap of faith, no point covering our Japanese horse bets with these two after they’ve won their comeback runs and are both much shorter!
The Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe is a magnificent horse race named after a magnificent structure, but a great ante-post medium in March it is not.
The ground is an imponderable, as is the likely contenders come autumn seeing as many are 3yo yet to race beyond a mile, let alone demonstrate they have trained on.
The 8/1 should only be taken small by those who need it as immunisation against the inevitable forum crowing should the horse actually turn up and win.
The stake money would probably have been better invested in sushi.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Although Auguste Rodin did win at Doncaster on testing ground, AOB was tempted to take him out. He won, though i’m not sure it’s what he wants over a middle distance in order to beat the best around if AOB is to be believed.
“The 8/1 should only be taken small by those who need it as immunisation against the inevitable forum crowing should the horse actually turn up and win.”
Oh for sure, there was no way I was going to let a forum coup pass me by! I agree though, even if I was going to ‘hedge my bets’ I wouldn’t do it now, just nice to get some discourse going back and forth!
And Mike cheers for that added info, always helpful to know little things like that!
“if AOB is to be believed.”
Did I read this right?
Mike possibly implying for the first time EVER that not everything Aidan O’Brien says should be taken as gospel and treated like form-book FACT?
If so, this calls for a forum party!
Banter aside, it’s actually a really good point from Mike, IMO.
Auguste Rodin didn’t seem to have any issues with the ground at Doncaster, but if he’s considered a better colt on a quicker surface – and they’re right – you’d have to wonder.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"listen here chezza, the lads think he’s the fastest horse we’ve had, the lads will have to have a look at home and see whether he handles the ground
Chezza thinks it’s a remarkable achievement for a yard to manage without fail to produce the best racehorse (hence prospective stallion) they’ve ever had every single year, 20 years plus and counting.
If only they had a breeding operation to be able to market this bombproof claim on behalf of.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"That was the most impressive 12f performance I have ever witnessed. Never mind all the maybes about running, just have a few quid on at the very least.
8/1 is quite generous based on what he did, how he did it and how the market has shaped up in the past. I mean, Emily Upjohn was cut into 4/1 for the Arc when finishing 2nd in the Oaks.
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