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I haven’t got a strong opinion on this race as yet but thought it might be an idea to start a thread up with the weekends action likely to provide clues for the big one.
So Mi Dar could become the forgotten horse, the setback didn’t sound overly serious and you’d want some positive vibes about her well being before committing but the mid season break could benefit her with this race in mind. Gosden has done well in the last couple of years in this race with Golden Horn winning and Taghrooda running well from a car park draw.Blackbeard to conquer the World
At this stage I would be inclined to side with Order Of St George and La Cressonniere, both currently trading at 14/1.
It is hard to knock Postponed but I can’t have him as being too much value at around 5/1. Last year’s Prix Foy win didn’t look that special and although he dotted up in the Coronation Cup given that the runner-up is better over shorter he probably didn’t have that much to beat. Unless everything drops out I can’t see him being that much shorter. That said I would prefer him to Harzand who looks the best of a very average bunch of 3yo colts. He has plenty of admirable qualities and he might get his ground but I can’t see him being quick enough. Will Minding end up here? Not sure as there must be a chance that she will be kept to a shorter trip. Although she has been visually impressive it is hard to say just how good her form actually is. Jet Setting and Architecture were both subsequently turned over and the horse she beat today is pretty ordinary.
Order Of St George could milk all the Cup races but isn’t he a bit better than that? Perhaps we could be looking another Ardross? Would probably need some help with a pacemaker and the ground but it would not be hard to see him kicking from the front and proving very difficult to catch.
La Cressionniere has done nothing wrong at all. Should she be twice the price of Minding? She showed a great attitude to win her two Classics, particularly in overcoming a wide draw to take the Diane. Perhaps she isn’t quite Zarkava but she is doing a reasonable impression. The big question is whether she will get the Arc trip. Haven’t heard the plan but I am guessing the Vermeille will probably answer that question.
Much as Ioved order of St George in the gold cup I too would have loved to have seen him in the king George. He showed in the Irish leger he is a serious racehorse and given so far there is no outstanding 3 year old yet must have gone close. As he is part Australian owned I dare say the Melbourne cup will be on the agenda this season or next.
I have done New Bay at 12/1, Minding as 25/1 and La Cressonniere at 14/1 for the Arc.
I can’t have Order Of St George at all for this. I don’t think he has the speed and it would be a sad day for horse racing if a 2 and a half mile winner can land the Arc. I reckon Minding would go past him like a rat going up a drainpipe. Likewise, could you imagine Order Of St George coping with La Cressonniere’s speed?
I think if Order Of St George wins, it will be less of an echo of Ardross and more a case of “These opponents Are Dross”
We had Leading Light in the Arc a few years back and I said then he was a silly price. I think these Gold Cup horses are boats and I’ll be against them till they put me in a pine box marked “Boot Hill”
Postponed has been there as a leading light for a while now and his form is there in terms of the right races he has collected but I suspect it isn’t that strong in reality.
Harzand looks a better Leger prospect and I feel he is terrible value at as low as 5/1. Idaho, who was runner up in the Irish Derby, is still only a maiden race winner despite his places in good races. Harzand had to tough it out and I think he was an average Derby winner at best.
There is a huge list for the Arc but you can take a big black Magic Marker and put it through about 90% of the names right now. Duramente is quoted by a few firms but has been ruled out of the race.
The one firm quoting Moonlight Magic at 33/1 for the Arc should be seeking psychiatric assistance as soon as it becomes available.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve any german horses who could come for the arc not seen there 3yos yet when is there derby and oaks
Steve any german horses who could come for the arc not seen there 3yos yet when is there derby and oaks
I don’t follow the German Racing Darren.
I have just never found it worthwhile in terms of effort put in and information found that is of value.
It’s pretty much the UK, Ireland and France for me and I tend to stick to the better tracks.
The German Derby is on Sunday 10th July and Boscaccio is the 2/1 Ante Post Favourite. He is a son of Mount Nelson and is unbeaten after two starts. He carries a Racing Post Rating of 105 and he did not make his debut until the 16th May this year, so has plenty time to improve. His second win was a group 2 but it looked nothing inspiring at first glance to me.
If I had to have a bet in the German Derby, my fag packet working that ran to five minutes would select Wai Key Star who is trained by the more familiar A Wolher and he beat a horse called El Loco by further than the race favourite did, albeit it was only group 3. Wai Key Star is the higher rated on 109 with the Racing Post
Racebets are going 5/1 on Wai Key Star whereas he is only 3/1 elsewhere but that all comes with the Caution health warning of knowing about as much about German racing as a cow knows about taking a half-holiday.
The German Oaks is on Sunday 7th August (Preis Der Diana), I had a quick look but the first few in the betting are struggling to hit a three figure rating and it looked uninspiring to me.
The Oaks betting is here:-
The Derby Odds are here:-
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/deutsches-derby/winner
The other firms quoting on the race have their’s on a seperate page on Oddschecker under “German Derby”
Hope that at least is some help and/or interest.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Darren, Aidan O’Brien has Landofhopeandglory in the German Derby and that should give us a good handle on the relative form.
As a horse who has yet to win since his debut and carrying a 102 rating into the race, he makes no appeal in the German Derby at 5/2 with Paddy Power. Racebets are going 5/1 if that tempts anyone.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Darren, Aidan O’Brien has Landofhopeandglory in the German Derby and that should give us a good handle on the relative form.
As a horse who has yet to win since his debut and carrying a 102 rating into the race, he makes no appeal in the German Derby at 5/2 with Paddy Power. Racebets are going 5/1 if that tempts anyone.
Landofhopeandglory was unplaced in the German Derby. I reckon Aidan has a bit of a neck trying to win it with such a moderate horse but it looked a very weak race in fairness to the handler.
Isfahan won it for Andeas Wohler and that horse had finished 5th in the Group 2 Italian Derby last time, so he was hardly jumping out of the paper at you.
In the Arc itself, today’s winner Zelzal was cut to 16/1 from 50/1 but I don’t think he’s got any chance of staying the trip. He looks a miler to me and could be all at sea in October if it’s soft.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m happy to take 14’s about La Cressonniere, we know she has speed, I have a slight doubt regarding the distance but her gran on the female side is Galileo so happy to take a chance each way at 14’s.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
It looks like this years Derby was a better renewal than at first thought.
Harzand and Idaho ran to form at the Curragh
Wings of Desire second in the KG
Across the Stars wins at Royal Ascot
Deauville in the States
Ulysses this week at Goodwood.
Looking back at the race US Army Ranger came from a mile back to be beaten 1 @1/2 lengths. It was a big improvement from Chester and looks like he has been given a bit more time to strengthen up into that frame.
Hopefully with more to come he can progress further to win the Arc, his next race will be a big pointer to his progress made since June.
US Army Ranger to Win @12’s
I’m not so sure botchy. I think you might have botched the form together to make it look the way you want it to look. I don’t take much encouragement from the performances of the Derby runners.
– Harzand is definitely slightly better than Idaho. That’s all the Irish Derby told us. We learned nothing about how the 3yos will cope versus the older horses.
– Wings Of Desire was a well beaten second in an appalling King George, won by a horse who pothunts weak international G1s and has been repeatedly exposed as a tier below the very best
– Across The Stars beat a ragtag bunch who were not considered worthy of competing in the Derby. The Derby runner beats the second division: hardly a dazzling endorsement there.
– Deauville didn’t stay in the Derby and beat the traditionally dismal US turf horses under a wonderful ride at his optimum distance: a sharp 1m 2f
– Derby flop Ulysses scrambled home from another crew of second and third raters from his own age group.
I think US Army Ranger is a bit slow for an Arc, there is nothing in his form line that suggests he has the speed. A maiden win on heavy and a scrambling win at Chester followed by the Derby race where he seemed more like a Leger horse the way he ran on.
That Derby form has wins since but I don’t think they are strong wins.
Having missed the Irish Derby, there is an ominous doubt about US Army Ranger for me now.
I think at 12/1 it is easy to prefer La Cressonniere, who won both the Guineas and Oaks in France. This is a filly who is unbeaten and who beat today’s winner Qemah in the French Guineas. She has to prove she stays but I would rather have that as a concern, than whether your horse is fast enough to win.
The worst value bet by a metric mile in the Arc De Triomphe is Order Of St George. The horse is pretty much a barge but he’s generally 10/1 and 12/1 for the race, which is a total joke.
There is not one shred of evidence to suggest that the horse has anything like the pace to cope with the horses he may face in France.
I suggest people take a look at the subsequent form of Order Of St George’s races. It stinks like a year old kipper on a radiator:-
Ascot Gold Cup subsequent runs 10 wins 0
Saval Beg Stakes subsequent runs 6 wins 1 (Handicap)
Irish St Leger subsequent runs 21 wins 0
Irish St Leger Trial subsequent runs 13 wins 0There you have it, collateral form of 50 runs with 1 winner to show in a handicap and off a mark of 86
Order Of St George has been racing against donkeys but people will always reach for the notion of another Yeats.
I think he’s absolutely appalling value and this race will need to be the biggest lot of s*** since Henry Kissinger if he can win it.
A horse, a horse, my Kingdom for a horse with an iota of speed.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m not so sure botchy. I think you might have botched the form together to make it look the way you want it to look. I don’t take much encouragement from the performances of the Derby runners.
– Harzand is definitely slightly better than Idaho. That’s all the Irish Derby told us. We learned nothing about how the 3yos will cope versus the older horses.
– Wings Of Desire was a well beaten second in an appalling King George, won by a horse who pothunts weak international G1s and has been repeatedly exposed as a tier below the very best
– Across The Stars beat a ragtag bunch who were not considered worthy of competing in the Derby. The Derby runner beats the second division: hardly a dazzling endorsement there.
– Deauville didn’t stay in the Derby and beat the traditionally dismal US turf horses under a wonderful ride at his optimum distance: a sharp 1m 2f
– Derby flop Ulysses scrambled home from another crew of second and third raters from his own age group.
Not botched around really, just stating that some horses have performed better than they did in the Derby. If you look at last years Derby i think only Jack Hobbs & Storm the Stars won a race afterwards.
Based on official ratings Postponed is on 125, Harzand on 124 and USAR on 123.Given they were both unraced at 2 and have had 3 runs each then it’s quite possible they both could improve a bit to become players.I just prefer 12-1 to 6-1
Early days but that is my reasoning, probably wrong but what can you do ?
Two horse race, whether Minding can peg back Postponed or not. I like Le Cressioniere too but Minding is a level above her. A lot will depend on draw and positioning.
Minding is a much faster horse than Postponed. She was roughly five times his price when I backed her.
Ryan Moore seems to be specialising in titting around on Minding and then having the neck to say he was trying to keep things simple. If he doesn’t get his act together in the Arc she won’t win.
You can get away with making a “Rodney Marsh” of it against horses like Architecture and Skiffle, but against proper opposition it is going to cost you the race.
His efforts in the Oaks and The Nassau were right out of amateur hour.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
He had the confidence and knew he could get away it in them types of races. In the Arc you only get one chance. He dosent seem to ride French tracks well in my opinion, chantilly/longchamp he isn’t brilliant and at the curragh! These 3 tracks he struggles…always too far back! Minding is the fastest horse in arc and has to sweep late. If she gets into a staying battle she’s no chance.
After a long campaign I think the arc will be a bridge too far for Minding. I don’t think the distance or the prospect of softer than ideal ground is great either. Having said that I’m a huge fan of hers and if anything over say 16/1 came up it would be almost impossible to ignore an each way.
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