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Cannot have that Montmartre was on his game in the Jockey-Club, Bulwark. I would rule a line straight through the race IMO and just go over the Grand Prix and the trial win.
I am not convinced he could make a case, but he is a genuine candidate.
PC, sorry if I came across as sarcastic.
Myles, I have never dispuited for a second that Montmartre is a serious arc candidate. His GPDP win more than proves that.
My point is that IMO he has run to form in the PDJC.
It clearly depends on what people term as true form. Many people seem to have it as the maximum rating a horse can run to, regardless of pace, distance or anything else. True form IMO is the best a horse can run with regards his speed and his stamnina. If he bottles on either then he has not run to true form.
Look at Montmartres 3 runs over 10 and 11 furlongs, and the paces and company, and he has run to the same level on almost all occasions including his prix du jockey club defeat. Yet apparently the Prix Jockey Club form is not his true form over that distance.
Then look at what happens when he steps up to 1m4f and gets a fast pace in his GPDP trial and he wins with 15lbs improvement on his best form to date. Then he goes out in the GPDP and gets a race over 5 seconds fast and he wins easily leaving his previous best (from the trial) behind by almost 20lbs.
Yet what sort of speed has he shown on both occasions at 1m4f? Probably IMO about the same speed as he showed in the PDJC where after all he was up against guineas horses (and horses that had been targetting a 1m2f group1, some with good reason) in a slow paced race over a trip which on all known form he has shown is over 30lbs below the best he can run to in a fast paced 1m4f race.
If you follow Montjeus for any length of time you will soon realise that they are almost always relentless gallopers, and their form ties in with pace, the more the better. Only 3 have shown the speed to get competitive in 1m2f races and they were Authorized, Hurricane Run and Motivator. Like I have already stated, Montmartre looks more like a scorpion type than a Hurricane Run and his race record to date looks almost Identical to scorpion’s at the same time in his career.
It is the fact that when other horses are usually running out of steam and montjeus still have a full tank that is usually IMO the key to their success. And usually the faster the gallop the bigger their winning margin will be, at a trip short of their best at a slow gallop they are as unreliable as they could possibly be.
To say that montmartre deserved to win a slow 1m2.5f group1 race, which he was hammered in, because he won a totally different type of race, in terms of stamina and speed (5.2 secs fast over a extra 1.5f is a hell of a difference to a montjeu), is just a massive misunderstanding of the horse IMO.
No offence or sarcasm intended.
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Bulwark
Aren’t you ignoring everything except the pace?
It was made quite clear that Montmartre didn’t run his race in the Jockey Club as he became upset before the race by the Chantilly PA system, and to suggest he was beaten 24l ‘because that’s as good as he is’ is laughable in view of his almost perfect record otherwise.
Fast run races or not, he had good horses on toast at the JC distance in both his races since, and the suggestion that he is likely to run 3 stone below his best in another similarly run 10f race just does not make sense.It is not me who is ignoring everything here reet, the impression I’m getting is that a horse has won two races over 1m4f (both of which panned out to his strengths) and people are just saying, well he’s clearly run below form in the french derby, just because he has won a completely different race. It is those people who are ignoring all the other factors. I think I have already explained it well enough, but people just arent getting it so will have one last go.
The winner of the PDJC was unbeaten over 9 and10f and went into the race rated 109.
The second horse in the race won the irish guineas trial over 1mile very impressively, looking like he just wanted a bit further, he entered the race rated 113.
The third horse won the 1,000 guineas over 1 mile and entered the race rated 113
The fourth hourse had just scored a 6 length win over 10f in a group3 and was rated 115 going into the race.
The fifth horse had just scored a four length win over 10f going into the race rated 107
The sixth horse had just finished 5th in the French 2000 guineas over a mile and entered the race rated 112.
I could go through every single horse but dont see the point really….
The 14th horse Starlish had justy finished a short neck second in the prix hoquart over 10.5f, and entered the race rated 113.
As you can see the french derby was really a race of speed this year and almost all that figured had either very good 10f form or form coming up from 8f entering the race. But the emphasis was on speed.
Now lets look at the fifteenth horse.
Montmartre entered the race having made a 92 rated debut (his best piece of form going into the race) and was stepping down by half a furlong on his 84 rated follow up. He had no form going into the race to suggest that he was anything other than very moderate at the trip. He was beaten by horses who were fully entitled to finish ahead of him at that trip (most of them were 20lbs superior to him on all form at the distance going into the race), especially bearing in mind that the slow pace at 1m2.5f was more in their favour than his.
Montmartre has since stepped up to 1m4f were he ran a trial race on good ground which was over 2.5 seconds fast and he won by two lengths. He then came out and ran in another 1m4f race (a group1 this time) which was 5.2 secs fast and he wins by the greater margin of 4 lengths, clearly upholding once again (on every piece of his form) that the key to him is stamina rather than speed.
With regards Montmartre surely having an excuse in the PDJC because he played up before the start, I expect that is just excuse seeking, in avoidance of the facts, really. I have seen enough montjeus playing up before races and still running stormers to not place too much emphasis on it, but even then I dont suspect that is the case.
Montmartre finished the french derby looking full of running, but looking completely done for toe. And sure rightly enough he was back out 2 weeks later to suggest that he hadnt had a hard race. I dont buy that the prelims were to blame.
I can generally accept that he ot have been exactly 100% and may have cost himself a finishing position or two but then starlish was 6 lengths ahead of him, so even with some deviation he would still IMO probably have been 15th at his best.
Montmartre is clearly a serious group1 class horse in fast paced 1m4f races, but nothing he has done to date IMO suggests he is close to being group1 class at 10 furlongs, particularly slow paced ones.
I will not go on about it any further as IMO if you don’t get it now, you will never get it, and everyone can percieve it whichever way they wish.
James Willoughby said after the french derby not to be underestimating the strength of that form, as it looked like a very good renewal and, having watched the race, I fully agreed. I think however that people have seriously underestimated the strength of that form, especially by saying that a horse who was collaterally stuffed in the race should have won it, which underestimates some very good horses. Hopefully Famous Name will give us an idea of how good that form is in the international, and Vision D’etat (a hugely forgotten horse in the arc picture)) will in the Prix Niel.
I will not go on about it any further as IMO if you don’t get it now, you will never get it, and everyone can percieve it whichever way they wish.
Well, I’ll clearly never "get it" in a million years. By all means argue that Montmartre is better at 12f than 10f – I agree – and that Vision d’Etat is overpriced for the Arc – I disagree but I accept I may be wrong – but to suggest seriously that Montmartre didn’t run below form at Chantilly is simply laughable.
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Bulwark
Sorry to labour the point, but no horse improves by 47lb for a 1.5f step up in trip, whatever the pace, which is basically what you’re asking us to believe.
Thats where we’ll have to disagree reet and gus, I’d say its somewhere between 40 and 45 lbs improvement realistically, and I fully believe that that is entirely possible with the pace in mind. How many people thought masterminded could improve 31 lbs without even stepping up in trip earlier this season, not many if I remember, in fact, as I recollect, most thought he couldnt even improve 14lbs.
We will probably know in about a months time if Montmartre makes it to the Prix Niel as that is also the target for Vision D’Etat, because by my reckoning VDE should skin him again (this time at 1m4f), especially if the pace is not as hectic as the GPDP, which is often the case in the prix niel (which will probably see him at 1/5th of his current price), the arc I wouldnt be so sure about though as that is more likely IMO to play to Montmartres strengths (if he makes it there) but I should think VDE should be able to be laid at much shorter before the arc. Time will tell on that front.
Interestingly enough, Masterminded and Vision D’Etat share the same dam sire in Garde Royale. Just a useless piece of trivia there.
Just for the record I think its good to have split views running up to a big race, as it builds the atmosphere more.
Pace can change a horse’s performance by many pounds and many lengths – of that I have a firm believer of.
Think it’s time I watch the Jockey-Club and the Grand Prix/trial a few times.
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Bulwark
Masterminded’s improvement was no doubt brought upon by fitness and technique and has little to do with the issue here; namely that a horse is judged to be over 3 stone better over 1.5f further.
MD
Of course pace is important, but I defy you, or anyone else, to show a realistic scenario where it made the above difference to any horse, anywhere, over such a minor change in trip?
You can still find some pacey types running in circa 1m2f but they’ll need a stop-start affair of the highest order to be competitive in 1m4f.
It’s a difference – and more of a difference considering Montmartre is by Montjeu, and although Tabor was eager to race him against Dubai Millennium over 10 furlongs, I would never have backed him over less than 12, and wouldn’t do the same for his sons either.
Of course pace is important, but I defy you, or anyone else, to show a realistic scenario where it made the above difference to any horse, anywhere, over such a minor change in trip?
Proclamation ran in a dante that was run in the other way (ie. that it was run to suit horses from the stamina side of 1m2f as it was won by a derby winner and the second was also second in the leger). Proclamation, a speedy miler couldnt get involved, frankie dettori advised that they step him back down to 1 mile and he improved by… wait for it…53 lbs.
Montmartre on the other hand has run in a race where the emphasis was on speed rather than stamina, and he is just (in distance terms) a mirror image of proclamation (if the mirror is placed at 1m2f).
Now admittedly the difference in that case is 2.5 furlongs, but then again, montmartre didnt make all his improvement solely for the step up to 1m4f as inititally (in a race which was 3secs fast and in his favour) he only ran to 107. It wasnt until he got a furious gallop over 1m4f (probably run more like a 1m6f race) that he found an extra 19 lbs.
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Nice try Bulwark, but I did say realistic!
That was no nearer Proclamation’s true form than it was Montmartre’s.At York he just pulled and had no chance after a furlong
J Noseda,trainer.Not a chance Im believing that. If that was the case then why didnt they try to step him back up to 1m2f afterwards? Instead they dropped him back down to 7 and 6f, before he went to godolphin. And after frankie said drop him back to 1 mile he won on his very next start.
Your just being stubborn now reet…
Montmartre looks an almost certain non-runner in the Arc. His trainer is quoted in today’s Post as follows: "His condition has stabilised but it will be very difficult to get him ready for the Arc de Triomphe."
Looking less and less likely he’ll run…. Even if he does get there you would have to be doubtful of his fitness:
He’s put too much effort into the Grand Prix de Paris at such an early stage of his career that he had not been able to harden up his body for the strenous task of racing in general – IMO.
A similar example has occurred here with the once Golden Slipper favourite Amelia’s Dream – was 6/4 and even shorter 3-4 months out following her win in the Silver Slipper before pulling up lame the next day. She won the race by 8 lengths and clearly was pushed too much.
I am slowly warming to Vision d’Etat and the close proximity of Prospect Wells in the markets is interesting – I believe he is Fabre’s key player for the Arc this year?
Vision d’Etat just doesn’t appeal to me. The improvement required is just way too much IMO.
At 14/1 the horse isn’t even worth considering for a place IMO and I can’t Myles why you think the 14/1 about Getaway in comparison is short.
Getaway is the type of horse who could win any race when he is on song and I think he will run a big race on the day.
Still can’t see past Zarkava though. When she takes of about 2 out I don’t expect anything will get any where near her.
If something like NA or Getaway get first run on her and she has traffic problems then perhaps they could win but with a normal passage she will murder everything around her.
Did I mention I thinks she will win?
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