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Wow. Well, Harbinger is deservedly favourite for the Arc, but 7/4’s just wrong. 5 older winners from the last 20 surely makes him a 3/1 shot at the very least
Interesting to see how they campaign Harbinger now. The obvious thing would be to send him to the Foy, but Foy runners have a truly dire record. I realise he was cantering for the whole race today, but he’s never run in a Group race over less than 12 furlongs, was seemingly being campaigned for the St. Leger and needed a 10 furlong maiden to break his duck. Running him over the 10f of the Irish Champion Stakes or 10 1/2f of the Juddmonte I believe would end any Arc chance he has. Some horses ooze class over 12f but cannot cope with 10f. Doyen, another Hardwicke-King George winner, comes to mind.
But as far as I can see, he’s the only older horse who could possibly win the Arc at this stage.
In terms of the 3-year-olds (which are the only horses I look at when going through the Arc), Workforce’s dire effort today doesn’t quite eliminate him. Had he finished 6th or if Dar Re Mi had run, he’d have been gone (assuming DRM had beaten him, which seems very likely).
The only 3yos on my list bar Workforce are Behkabad, Sarafina and Eishin Flash, the Japanese Derby winner. Doesn’t look like he’s coming over so we can forget him.
I’d take Profound Beauty to beat them all if she ran.
I’m beginning to think you have an unnatural obsession with this horse.
Is Harbinger a Ascot Specialist?
He has never ran such a stonking race in his life until he has run at Ascot. Many have said that about Starspanggledbanner that Ascot is a specialist track when he was going for the July Cup as a reason to oppose him.
I can’t take the form literally or even close as it would put Harbinger into a stupid rating based on one race. HAWK WING ANYONE? (Zarkava
). Cape Blanco was 3 and 1/2l ahead of the Youmzain and the French Filly. They are very decent yard sticks.Have we seen a Great Horse or a Great Performance on a very specialist track. I take the latter view i have to say. I would be laying that 2/1 all night and day come the arc if its still their.
I think this Ascot thing is starting to get overplayed. He looked really good at Newbury and Chester earlier in the year and ran well at Goodwoodin 2009. I really don’t see him as some course specialist.
I think this Ascot thing is starting to get overplayed. He looked really good at Newbury and Chester earlier in the year and ran well at Goodwoodin 2009. I really don’t see him as some course specialist.
Word perfect Euro! Thank goodness there are numptys that make up the numbers that contribute to the Levy,it makes it all the easier for those who know their horses! Harbinger will go round Longchamp like a hare at Walthamstow!
Thank goodness there are numpties who back short price favourites for a race 3 months away (a super competitive one as well) or else there wouldn’t be no money for the rest of us.
Anyone who doesn’t have a shilling or 2 on Youmzain e/w and would rather back a short price favourite for a top class race is the one the bookies welcome with open arms.Thank goodness there are numpties who back short price favourites for a race 3 months away (a super competitive one as well) or else there wouldn’t be no money for the rest of us.
Anyone who doesn’t have a shilling or 2 on Youmzain e/w and would rather back a short price favourite for a top class race is the one the bookies welcome with open arms.
No Stacelita,
Bookies welcome with open arms those who can’t read a form book.Value Is Everything Care to explain please? Or just how you make Harbinger a 6/4 chance without knowing ground conditions/draw and unexposed horses in opposition.
Form book reads Youmzain beaten 15 lengths today by Harbinger in their only meeting hence 33/1 for the Arc fair price interesting.
hmmm what to do what to do? Lets follow the hype shall we since the majority are the Bookies favourite customers.:shock: Care to explain please? Or just how you make Harbinger a 6/4 chance without knowing ground conditions/draw and unexposed horses in opposition.
Form book reads Youmzain beaten 15 lengths today by Harbinger in their only meeting hence 33/1 for the Arc fair price interesting.
hmmm what to do what to do? Lets follow the hype shall we since the majority are the Bookies favourite customers.I’d say even now Harbinger has at least 5lbs in hand of everything else turning up at Longchamp. With more improvement likely to come. A performance as good as the one today (I rate him on a timeform equivalent of 138) which if repeated at Longchamp would (I believe) be good enough to win any race back to Dancing Brave in 1986.
(Sea The Stars did not need to run to form to win last year).
Of course it’s not certain Harbinger will run to form. But I’d say he stands a far better than 33% chance of doing so.Value Is EverythingHave we seen a Great Horse or a Great Performance on a very specialist track. I take the latter view i have to say. I would be laying that 2/1 all night and day come the arc if its still their.
A specialist track in the sense that it has a 2 1/2 furlong home straight, which is incredibly short compared to other major British tracks?
This Ascot nonsense is totally ridiculous. There is nothing specialist about the track otherwise we wouldn’t have this list of Group 1 winners since the track was re-done…..
Scenic Blast
,
Araafa
,
Henrythenavigator
,
Mastercraftsman
,
Ad Valorem
,
Ramonti
,
Haradasun
,
Paco Boy
,
Goldikova
,
Ouija Board
,
Manduro
,
Duke Of Marmalade
,
Vision D’Etat
,
Nannina
,
Indian Ink
,
Lush Lashes
,
Ghaanati
,
Hurricane Run
,
Dylan Thomas
,
Conduit
,
Les Arcs
,
Kingsgate Native
,
Starspangledbanner
, Rite Of Passage,
Yeats
,
Simply Perfect
, Listen,
George Washington
,
Raven’s Pass
,
Rip Van Winkle
In bold are those who won at least 1 Group 1 elsewhere.
In blue are those who won at least 1 other Group race elsewhere if they never/have not won a Group 1 race elsewhere.
A specialist track that only has the very best winning there, possibly?
The ones I would take out of the race are Cape Blanco and Youmzain. Youmzain hates quicker ground yet ran into 3rd and looks worth a bet in the arc once again. Cape Blanco was ridden too keenly yet ran a cracker, compared to workforce who had ground in his favour yet tired very easily up the run in. Harbinger had ground in his favour and got a perfect ride yesterday and threw in an incredible visual performance, but think on good or worse ground he’ll roll over easily enough in the arc.
"Gingertipster":3s3p85yh wrote:
I’d say even now Harbinger has at least 5lbs in hand of everything else turning up at Longchamp. With more improvement likely to come. A performance as good as the one today (I rate him on a timeform equivalent of 138) which if repeated at Longchamp would (I believe) be good enough to win any race back to Dancing Brave in 1986.
(Sea The Stars did not need to run to form to win last year).
Of course it’s not certain Harbinger will run to form. But I’d say he stands a far better than 33% chance of doing so.2/1 now gone. 7/4 now best price.
Timeform rating 142 for Harbinger. If they are right he’d even beat Dancing Brave.
Look forward to trading out at odds-on nearer the day.Value Is EverythingWALLACE-NO7 WROTE:
Have we seen a Great Horse or a Great Performance on a very specialist track. I take the latter view i have to say. I would be laying that 2/1 all night and day come the arc if its still their.A specialist track in the sense that it has a 2 1/2 furlong home straight, which is incredibly short compared to other major British tracks?
This Ascot nonsense is totally ridiculous. There is nothing specialist about the track otherwise we wouldn’t have this list of Group 1 winners since the track was re-done…..
Equiano, Scenic Blast, Araafa, Excellent Art, Henrythenavigator, Mastercraftsman, Ad Valorem, Ramonti, Haradasun, Paco Boy, Goldikova, Ouija Board, Manduro, Duke Of Marmalade, Vision D’Etat, Nannina, Indian Ink, Lush Lashes, Ghaanati, Hurricane Run, Dylan Thomas, Conduit, Les Arcs, Soldier’s Tale, Kingsgate Native, Starspangledbanner, Rite Of Passage, Byword, Art Connoisseur, Yeats, Simply Perfect , Listen, Rainbow View, Hibaayeb, George Washington, Raven’s Pass, Rip Van Winkle
In bold are those who won at least 1 Group 1 elsewhere.
In blue are those who won at least 1 other Group race elsewhere if they never/have not won a Group 1 race elsewhere.
A specialist track that only has the very best winning there, possibly?
Your facts don’t lie Jose….but in this particular horse Harbinger seems to just love Ascot by winning both his race by 14 1/2 lengths compared to other for wins(4) that only produced a winning distance combined of 10l(being easy). His form simply was out of the a new world that he ran to yesterday. Okay maybe the other Horses weren’t at their best but even still it was a staggering performance. I remember people said Hawk Wing was the 2nd coming after his Lockinge and then duly flopped large odds on in his next race. Until Harbinger goes and hacks up in another Group 1 with quality as good as today i certainly won’t be a believer that this horse is 2/1 shot for the Arc for a trainer that has never won the arc.
I wonder where he goes next?…..maybe a prep for the Arc or maybe not the arc at all….
2/1 now gone. 7/4 now best price.
Timeform rating 142 for Harbinger. If they are right he’d even beat Dancing Brave.
Look forward to trading out at odds-on nearer the day.Oh dear some of us on here do get a bit OTT! I could have had 16/1 about Harbinger winning the Arc Ginge but i know for a fact he wont run on Soft ground and you never know what the ground will be like on Arc day,even on the morning of the race!! He is far more ground dependant than some realise! 7/4 is an absolute joke at this stage! I wont tell you what price i have about
Workforce
winning the Arc as you will fall off your chair mate!Notice how i didn"t say throne!
Harbinger’s history is full of progressive form,taking out the Voltigeur and St Simon when injured.
Did you see the John Porter at Newbury?
Hardly an Ascot specialist.
Got a round action that suggests a soft surface won’t inconvenience him. Of course very soft going will be a concern. But he won’t be any bigger than 2/1 then. And if it’s good he’ll be odds-on. How likely is very soft? Rarely that bad these days.
Stoutey wants to win the Arc as it’s not on his CV.
Sadly though TAPK, can’t see Workforce being as good on a right-handed track again. Know he won at Goodwood, but only a maiden and did not look entirely comfortable that day.
If I had not backed Harbinger at 2/1, 7/4 is good enough but not 6/4.
Hope Harbinger runs in the Irish Champion, at the 2 furlong pole he was cantering. Yet Cape Blanco was at full pelt. So can’t see the logic of people saying AOB’s horse is better at 1m2f. Jan Vermeer is the Irish 1m2f horse.
Value Is Everything
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Was just saying in another post it would take a brave man to oppose Harbinger in the Arc but it’s another day against different horses and just for starters I would imagine Fame and Glory is mucher higher in AOB’s pecking order than Cape Blanco is at the moment.
There’s no telling how St Nicholas Abbey will progress between now and then and if it comes up soft Sariska comes into the reckoning.
Then we got the Frenchies who may come up with something unexpectidly.
7/4 if it was tomorrow but that’s terribly value at the moment.
Sure he looks the business but don’t forget Harbinger 2009. I myself was shouting him from the rooftops for the Great Voltiger and he finished stone last……then in October he ran like he hated soft ground against High Heeled.
I’d rather be taking 7/4 about a good Hannon 2yo at Sandown than backing something to beat the unknown of Europe 3 months down the line.
). Cape Blanco was 3 and 1/2l ahead of the Youmzain and the French Filly. They are very decent yard sticks.
Care to explain please? Or just how you make Harbinger a 6/4 chance without knowing ground conditions/draw and unexposed horses in opposition. 
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