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John Gosden said he’d pay for Duncan to be entered if the owners didn’t.
Tells me all I need to know about every horse in the field when a horse beaten by Barshiba is going to the Arc.
Still I’m happy with Workforce cause his acceleration in the Derby was out of this world. That doesn’t change cause the form hasn’t worked out! It was still out of this world regardless!
Again Chisi I’m speculating some…
Agreed that ‘Nakayama’ is interesting he was rated 120 with F&G at 124 on international ratings before his run last weekend.
His record when fresh was reflected in his price cut before the trial race and funny enough I thought that it was ‘Victoire’ who blew up?!
Back to race reading school for me?!
Back to ‘Nak’ his race record is actually better than what is listed on the Rpost website.
Now
11 starts for 5 wins & 2 a placeOf ‘Victoire’ I thought that he was of interest as when he was beat in the Derby that was his only ever run going left handed!
He was rated 116 (over intermediate distance) compared to 120 L of ‘Plantr’ I felt that he was unexposed over the distance.
In Japan due to the nature of running left & right handed (I’m sure that you’ll be aware that) some horses seem to go better on different tracks/directions.
Ie: ‘Matsurida Gogh’ the surprise Arima Kinen winner loved going right handed & Nakayama! (He shouldn’t have been such a shock due to his love of the track!) 12 starts: 7 wins – 2 pl – upl 3
The profile of ‘Victoire’ is much the same…
8 starts: 6 LH 5 wins & 1 place – going RH 1 start & 1 place.Last week was his first start since the end of June and you’d have hoped for more – looked a non stayer or a blower uper?!
Yet Take said that this horse was capable of winning their triple crown – so how wrong is he about the horse staying?!
Would also say that I noticed that he was still pulling some into the false straight and the ride was very funny – dropping further back before looming very large in the home straight!(You did) – but don’t even mention ‘Deep’! – (anymore!)
P.s. whilst I’m speculating…
how do people read these comments from CP after the trial?
Compared to what they saw or heard?Niel Price:
What a struggle in the final meters!
Then right before entering the final straight, planter took his responsibilities. A little too soon perhaps! Considering that Live Free had done enough, the partner of Anthony Crastus, secured the lead ahead Behkabad, stashed behind. The long-awaited duel began. The last 300 meters were beautiful. Planter, still leading, 100 meters from the stake, thought to have been the hardest, but Behkabad, led by the millimeter-Christophe Patrice Lemaitre great day, it blew the win in a final assault. On a tiny head!
Nakayama Festa is definitely the horse I’ll be having £30 or £40 on just incase there’s to be a fly in the ointment.
You call me obtuse, I call you a coward. Tongue in cheek? Comedy? Don’t give up your day job. I’m not at all amazed you can repeatedly make a long winded defence when your position prior to the Dante was obvious ….. and still remains on this site. The true form of an internet possuer. Your suspicions are little more than hopeful posturings.
You spent 13 minutes looking for my post after I’d already admitted in my last post that I was wrong…
- Total Posts 17716
Nakayama Festa is definitely the horse I’ll be having £30 or £40 on just incase there’s to be a fly in the ointment.
It’s an absolute donkey mate, how do you see it reversing form with Behkabad/Plantuer?
He’s never faced Behks or Planteur…
Japanese horses have run twice in the past 11 Arcs – both were placed. The mistake they made with Deep Impact was not giving him a European prep. The mistake they made with El Condor Pasa was not shooting Montjeu in the leg before the race. Heart’s Cry came over to Ascot a few years ago and very nearly beat Hurricane Run – in my opinion he didn’t because he hadn’t had a European prep.
Nakayama Fest was having just his 3rd start this year and his first start in Europe. Duncan made all at a sedate pace and the sprint finish just didn’t suit the Jap. He’ll come on bags for the run and will play a part in the finish in my opinion.
Victoire Pisa is much less of a threat IMO. Fitness levels aside, he has absolutely miles to find on Goldenhooves.
The mistake they made with El Condor Pasa was not shooting Montjeu in the leg before the race.
Lol! Never heard of a leg shot!
Zar there was another in the year of your namesake…
but he was making his 25th start – so was far more exposed than the two that have come over for this year’s edition!
Also can recall how Carson said before the race that he looked bloated – so we can count him out!
The line to judge ‘Nakayama’ through is surely his beating of ‘Buena Vista’
in his last start in Japan where he clocked the same time as what ‘Deep’ did before coming over – (ok the going was different though!)After her narrow loss to ‘Dar’ out in Dubai Peslier told connections of ‘Buena’ that she was an ideal Arc type!
It’s true to say that his win in the Takarazuka Kinen was somewhat of a shock @ 35/1 and that day ‘Buena’ raced a lot more prominent than usual.
But those placed behind give it quite a solid look ie. the prominence of ‘Dream Journey’ for one.Here’s the vid: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY_poBAaU9k
Another thing I read that he has had a change of trainer this year – hence his improved form figures? It was on a French site so I can’t say how true it is due to losses in translation!
Anyway the way he was ridden here (in the Derby no7) I’m not surprised that they aren’t better! It does show however that he goes on soft…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5g_CCSWh … re=related
The one worry are his stats for winning G1’s over 1m4f!
Though he’s only contested one and was 4th as the above vid shows!
Overall stats for racing over 1m4f read : 3 starts – 1 win – 1 place & a 4th!Put it this way, Workforce could run 10lbs below his best and win in a canter.
Sir Michael do the good thing and get him ripe for this race, thank you MRW.
Isn’t this supposed to be a forum for intelligent racing discussion? This is just mindless bluster. The sort of thing you find at the football section in the Betfair forum.
We all expect not to get intelligent discussion from Mr Wilson, Euro.
Mr W has just jumped on the
Workforce
bandwagon! Unfortunately for him,i"m the driver!
You panickin Zarkava about the fact that if Workforce turns up Workforce wins? I’m panicking about you saying you backed Behkabad for the Arc in May after he hacks up
Sorry, but given today’s outcome I had to try I’m not interested in Workforce in the slightest. He cannot possibly win an Arc with the prep he’s had. The only horses that concern me are Sarafina and Nakayama Festa.
Fame and Glory’s been pretty weak on the exchanges over the last few days and Cape Blanco’s been fairly positive, both on the exchanges and in the offices.
I’m panicking about you saying you backed Behkabad for the Arc in May after he hacks up
Sorry, but given today’s outcome I had to try :Very funny Zarkava,i did back
Workforce
for the Arc at 44 and 42 back in May though!Panic will set in when Sir Michael gets round to confirming him a runner!
I’m very annoyed I didn’t get on at those sort of prices in all honesty. Last year I had a list of Arc entries and went through every week practically getting rid of the stuff that couldn’t win based on trends and Sea The Stars was the only name left on there (I eliminated all the older horses immediately).
I did the same at the end of May and only had about 20 names on there, 1 of which was Workforce who I’d already backed for the Derby. Silly me. Anyway, he’s not on that list anymore
Only Sarafina and Behkabad :p And I’m being lenient to the filly.Behkabad and Planteur have beat nothing except a Cape Blanco who was roughed up from pillar to post. Its a joke Behkabad is fav for this and I dont get either that he had an easy race in the Niel looked anything but.
I also cannot figure out why Bekhabad is Fav. Granted this years Arc wont take a lot of winning as its the poorest in years but he looks like he needs at least 1m 4f and more to be honest. Surely an Arc winner should have at least some semblance of speed. Workforce might come into it but has been off a long time. Fame And Glory or even old Youmzain are probably the 2 i would back. I will regret saying this when a french horse hacks up but the French middle distance horses look an exceptionally poor bunch this year. After Dylan Thomas, Zarkava and Sea The Stars this years winner will look pretty ordinary
Hehe. Rewilding was beaten by Planteur with ease and look what he went onto achieve. Viscount Nelson 5th in the Prix du Jockey Club and beaten into a narrow 3rd in the Eclipse. Jan Vermeer beaten 2L by Cape Blanco and then almost 6L by Behkabad. This is the best crop of French 3yo colts in a very long time.
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