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Agree Dj. Youmzaim always had a performance like that in him I felt, but the other two are just what they are. As said before, I actually think this was one of DT’s less impressive performances. I also tend to agree with teh doubts about SOF too. The irish derby form is pretty hopeless frankly and the Niel looks less wonderful now
Interesting comments by Willoughby regarding the nature of Montjeu’s and impact on Authorized in the post today
Seeing as I’m not a professional punter, £40 on Youmzain at 95 on betfair did not make the Arc anything but the most awful anguish.
That half stride where he came out towards the centre of the track made the difference imo.
A fast pace and ground softer than good, and you can include Youmzain near the top of the list in any 1m4f race.
Agree as well re proximity of third and fourth. As i said before the race, a poor Arc overall, albeit with an admirable winner.
Reet
How is Authorized’s Derby form ‘unquestionably’ better than his run in the Juddmonte?
I’m confused by Trackside’s opinion that fast ground is more important over 10f than 12f for DT – That goes against normal logic doesn’t it? I would agree if you said that fast ground is important to him (Running to his optimum) over any trip. Personally I would have thought a horse with the speed he has would be even better over 12f given that ground or it would bring about the same improvement. The King George form bears that out.
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Reet
How is Authorized’s Derby form ‘unquestionably’ better than his run in the Juddmonte?
The length of his victory, the manner of his victory, plus no horse has ever got him off the bridle in a test of stamina, yesterday excepted of course.
Seeing as I’m not a professional punter, £40 on Youmzain at 95 on betfair did not make the Arc anything but the most awful anguish.
..Salselon,
Did you not consider "Greening Up" your position in-play (i.e. by setting ‘Take Profit’ price in advance)?
As you know, a horse race is an exercise in "controlled chaos" (pun intended) so greening up guarantees some return when the odds shorten dramatically in the last furlong?matekus
My comment that fast ground is more important to him over 10 furlongs than it is over 12 was simply down to the fact that he has more time to hit top gear over the extra two furlongs..
Reet
We’re going to have to agree to disagree on that. Seeing as he went to the front virtually on the bridle in the Juddmonte, beating an Irish Derby, dual Champion Stakes and Arc winner in the process I have to say I think the Juddmonte is at least on a par with his Derby form.
Gareth
It’s only as I scroll through the archives of this thread I’ve stumbled across what you said about the Irish Derby times. A belated thanks for your viewpoint.
My comment that fast ground is more important to him over 10 furlongs than it is over 12 was simply down to the fact that he has more time to hit top gear over the extra two furlongs..
A line of thought i hadn’t considered….
No worries DJ. Just a shame SoF is getting no credit for running so well despite being right up on such a demanding pace for so long.
I posted this analysis of Dylan Thomas’s races before Sunday’s race on another forum in an attempt to prove my long-held theory (since his first Juddmonte defeat where he pulled his chance away early on) that the single most important thing he needs is a strong pace:
I think the race itself is made for him if they go the typical fast pace that they tend to. In fact, if you were willing to ignore everything that his trainer and jockey(s) think about the ground not suiting, you could still make a case for his slow-ground defeats being down to slow paces rather than cut in the ground.
Going by Topspeed figures and comparing them to the RPRs of his races, his wins since he turned 3 are:
King George (GS): 0 lbs slow
Derrinstown Trial (Y): 6lbs slow
Prix Ganay (Gd): 8lbs slow
Irish Champion (’07) (GF): 10 lbs slow
Irish Champion (’06) (GF): 14 lbs slow
Irish Derby (Gd): 18lbs slowWhilst his Group defeats are:
Derby (GF): 4lbs slow
Juddmonte International (’07) (Gd): 23 lbs slow
Juddmonte International (’06) (GS): 23 lbs slow
Prince Of Wales (Gd): 44 lbs slow
Tattersalls Gold Cup (GF): 88 lbs slow(I’m ignoring his Listed win this year as being won regardless through class, and his abortive attempt on dirt in the States.)
The Derby is the only race here that doesn’t fit the pattern – but it’s also the only race where he had to make his own pace.
To the above you can now add to the top of the win list:
Arc (GS): 1 lb fast
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