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Arc 2011

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  • #373196
    Avatar photoJollyp
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 540

    Presto
    Quote by AOB in Sunday’s RP:

    "He has never run over this trip for us, but we are

    hoping

    it won’t be a problem".
    His jockey expressed similar reservations in a BBC interview on the day of the race.

    Also, dress the form up how you like, his Arc run was rated SYT’s worst performance of the season.

    Firstly, to me that quote looks like something they often say when a horse steps up in trip. It reflects slight trepidation rather than absolute certainty but certainly doesn’t suggest they’d go back to get the trip. And of course if they went forward they would’ve been posted 4 or 5 wide. It also acknowledges that he did run over longer distances down under, just not "for them".
    How am I "dressing up" the form? If you think SYT "just wasn’t good enough" and had "every chance" despite finishing best of all bar the winner (better than Snow Fairy) w/o taking into account the track, you must think that Shareta turned in a better 12f performance than SYT, Snow Fairy, St Nicholas Abbey, Meandre, and Sarafina. They had every chance too. You can’t have it both ways.

    Glass Harmonium didn’t improve much if at all, form with Redwood matches up to what he’s done in AUS. There’s no doubt that AUS has weaker middle distance horses, and I’m a lot closer to Australian racing than European. So You Think was dominant, the best in decades down under. Nothing could get near him. But landing in a decent European middle-distance year he found 3 horses around his level at 10f (Workforce, Rewilding, Snow Fairy) and one surely above (Danedream).

    SYT the best in decades? Plenty would disagree Presto and Glass Harmonium has raced and been placed in group races every run here, he has improved markedly,there has been plenty of English imports fail here so it always comes back to the ‘lower class’ of racing when a horse is improved here.At his last start in HK Glass Harmonium was beaten about 30 lengths,so lets not forget how consistent he has been here,instead of cherry picking one run in a group 3 beating Redwood.

    #373198
    andyod
    Member
    • Total Posts 4012

    A jockey on the way to the start will have figured out the ground conditions.Adjustments need to be made.Whence the need for a world class jockey becomes imperative.I believe the pacemaker was for SNA after the draw became known.Too many irons in the fire(Ballydoyle). Have been for some years now.

    #373200
    Avatar photoMiss Woodford
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1664

    Fantastic post MV!

    Andy unfortunately Sir H IS getting long in the tooth. He has cancer too. Neither have prevented him completing one of the most remarkable sporting comebacks of all time.

    Reminds me of the late Jess Jackson. Except Jackson crafted two very daring campaigns with Curlin and Rachel Alexandra to watch in his last years.

    Quite frankly I hate seeing horses take off 3 months at the height of their career for no particular reason. You all may still be abuzz with excitement over Frankel, but the many American racing fans who became enamored with him in the spring have much forgotten about him. The longer he goes without a run, the easier it is to dismiss him as all hype. Especially since he isn’t venturing abroad (even to France or Dubai).

    #373202
    Avatar photoHurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1533

    Slight deviation from fact here. Dunlop said she was ready at Leopardstown.She was ready to take on the world. There always is an excuse with Stouty,even when he uses a pacemaker.Probably the best race Workforce run since the Derby.Michael is very fussy about going and distance,he don’t like to be beaten.Incidentally a mile and two was probably Sea the Stars best distance.But he still won over the Arc distance.
    Again what’s with "he is only a three year old"? That is a lame excuse since three year olds win Arcs and US Triple Crown races.Three is when you can take on the world at distances up to a mile and six without meeting older horses.All the competition is only three.Most trainers would have taught a horse to settle by three and to go on in distance by then. Trouble is Henry is no longer a young stud himself.Can you imagine him ducking the Derby thirty years ago ?

    BS: No deviation at all if you listen to Terry Norman who is very close to the yard or if you read beyond the headlines you’ll find that 4 weeks before the race Ed Dunlop thought she had no chance of running in the race. An article written by Greg Wood appeared in the Guardian with the attention grabbing headline

    "Ed Dunlop has Snow Fairy in hot form for Champion Stakes clash"

    That statement was media garbage and was not among the quotes Ed made. What Ed Dunlop actually said was "This season is really only just getting going for her – we were very much looking towards the second half of the year. Our hand has been forced to go to the Irish Champion"

    As far as SMS being fussy about ground and distance don’t be fooled by his silence.

    He’s not adverse to running horses at the wrong trip or if the ground is slightly against them. He ran Conduit in the Eclispe against See The Stars knowing full well that his 12 to 14f specialist had little chance of winning but should he win a Group 1 over 10f,his stud value would rocket. His exact word were " It’s worth the gamble"

    He did the same with Workforce this year who is clearly best or was clearly best at 12 furlong. SMS is one of the most adventurous trainers you are ever likely to come across.

    He often uses the ground as a get out when cornered prior to a race by saying wait and see what the ground is like but doesn’t tell the reporter what ground he wants :mrgreen: . Everyone thinks SMS is unwilling to keep the public informed but that is not strictly true. He just doesn’t like talking garbage or putting himself up to be shot at.

    Some trainers out there will not give their opinion to anyone including the owners until the horse has done his final piece of work, has eaten up in the morning, had his blood count checked and is half way up the ramp into the horse box. Those that say a horse will win any race without that knowledge are chancing their arm as they have no idea what the horses condition will be on the day of the race.

    #373208
    Avatar photoJollyp
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 540

    You Call that adventurous Hurdygurdyman? Try Lee Freedman, Mahogany, Group 1 Wins From 1000m-2500m. Tommy Smith, Kingston Town, Group 2 win 1200m,Group 1 win 3200m. Doug Bougoure, Strawberry Road, Group 2(now Group 1) win at 1200m, Group 1 win at 2400m. Bart Cummings, Saintly, Group 2 win at 1200m, Group 1 win at 3200m, the list goes on. Thats what you call adventurous!!!

    #373219
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    Its a shame that just because Danedream is not English or Irish trained that people have not given her the credit she deserves. Winning in such an emphatic fashion, her 3rd all aged group one on a variety of going, she has to be regarded as the best middle distance horse in Europe.

    #373221
    Avatar photoJollyp
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 540

    Its a shame that just because Danedream is not English or Irish trained that people have not given her the credit she deserves. Winning in such an emphatic fashion, her 3rd all aged group one on a variety of going, she has to be regarded as the best middle distance horse in Europe.

    Spot on! On that performance she would have to be the best middle distance horse in the world. Lets hope she gets the chance again to line up against some of the best, though the Arc may have suited on pacers better she didn’t just win she destroyed them.

    #373223
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 438

    Its a shame that just because Danedream is not English or Irish trained that people have not given her the credit she deserves. Winning in such an emphatic fashion, her 3rd all aged group one on a variety of going, she has to be regarded as the best middle distance horse in Europe.

    I couldn’t agree more.

    I had to pour myself a second bowl of cornflakes this morning; the first one had been ruined by my tears of laughter after reading that Timeform rated Dream Ahead’s Forêt win as the best performance seen at Longchamo this weekend.

    #373224
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    Fantastic post MV!

    Andy unfortunately Sir H IS getting long in the tooth. He has cancer too. Neither have prevented him completing one of the most remarkable sporting comebacks of all time.

    Reminds me of the late Jess Jackson. Except Jackson crafted two very daring campaigns with Curlin and Rachel Alexandra to watch in his last years.

    Quite frankly I hate seeing horses take off 3 months at the height of their career for no particular reason. You all may still be abuzz with excitement over Frankel, but the many American racing fans who became enamored with him in the spring have much forgotten about him. The longer he goes without a run, the easier it is to dismiss him as all hype. Especially since he isn’t venturing abroad (even to France or Dubai).

    An unusually poor post from you Miss Woodford. Hype?? Really???!

    I SOOOO enjoyed watching Curlin and RA running in Europe and France! A couple of trips to Dubai was all they could manage between them otherwise it was the good old U S of A every time. And why the hell not?! It was the country they were trained in!!!! Like Zarkava and of course the one you probably accidentally forgot to mention, Zenyatta who also liked time between her races.

    Also could you tell me how many times RA ran in her final season? 5 wasnt it? Same as Zenyatta as a 4 year old, same as the wonderhorse.

    Curlin had 9 starts by the end of his 3 year old career – same as Frankel. His 7 starts at 4 culminated in a disappointing final run where, according to the Racing Post his "long hard season" caught up with him and he finished 4th in the Classic.

    Maybe your American friends will feel a little differently next year when Frankel culminates his 15 race unbeaten career by winning the Classic!

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #373228
    Avatar photoJollyp
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 540

    Its a shame that just because Danedream is not English or Irish trained that people have not given her the credit she deserves. Winning in such an emphatic fashion, her 3rd all aged group one on a variety of going, she has to be regarded as the best middle distance horse in Europe.

    I couldn’t agree more.

    I had to pour myself a second bowl of cornflakes this morning; the first one had been ruined by my tears of laughter after reading that Timeform rated Dream Ahead’s Forêt win as the best performance seen at Longchamo this weekend.

    Yes but you listen to people on here and they tell you Timeform is not biased :roll:

    #373242
    Marginal Value
    Participant
    • Total Posts 703

    Its a shame that just because Danedream is not English or Irish trained that people have not given her the credit she deserves. Winning in such an emphatic fashion, her 3rd all aged group one on a variety of going, she has to be regarded as the best middle distance horse in Europe.

    I couldn’t agree more.

    I had to pour myself a second bowl of cornflakes this morning; the first one had been ruined by my tears of laughter after reading that Timeform rated Dream Ahead’s Forêt win as the best performance seen at Longchamo this weekend.

    Yes but you listen to people on here and they tell you Timeform is not biased :roll:

    You could say that they are biased, but you might have a big task in providing any evidence. You might have better luck with the evidence for incompetent, inaccurate, unanalytical or innumerate, but even that would be very tricky. Especially since the Racing Post form assessors agree with Timeform that Dream Ahead put up a better form performance than Danedream on Sunday.

    #373245
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 33183

    Its a shame that just because Danedream is not English or Irish trained that people have not given her the credit she deserves. Winning in such an emphatic fashion, her 3rd all aged group one on a variety of going, she has to be regarded as the best middle distance horse in Europe.

    I couldn’t agree more.

    I had to pour myself a second bowl of cornflakes this morning; the first one had been ruined by my tears of laughter after reading that Timeform rated Dream Ahead’s Forêt win as the best performance seen at Longchamo this weekend.

    Yes but you listen to people on here and they tell you Timeform is not biased :roll:

    :roll:

    Do you all realise that the sex allowance needs be added to Danedream’s Timeform rating of 132+ before comparing it with males? With the allowance

    Danedream IS the best European middle distance horse, for all I know the best in the World

    !

    132 was a rating given to a three year old carrying 8 stones 8 lbs in early October. 132 is an exceptional rating for a three year old filly, just 1 lb short of Zarkava (133). 1 lb ahead of Zenyatta (131). Allez France (136) was the best rated female, but she improved as a four year old. However, she was given the chance to improve as a four year old. Her three year old rating of 132 is exactly the same as Danedream. 133 for Zarkava I believe is the highest rating ever given to a three year old filly.

    So to say Timeform do not rate Danedream highly is utter rubbish!

    Contrast Danedream’s rating with some of the best "English" Timeform female ratings (taken from Racehorses of 2010) Midday (126), Snow Fairy (123), Dar Re Mi (124) and you realise just how good Danedream is. Goldicova’s best rating is (133).

    Does that look as though Timeform are "biased" towards English horses Jollyp? :roll:

    If Danedream met So You Think next week, with the sex allowance added I believe the German filly would be "top rated"!

    :lol: :lol: :lol:

    It wasn’t so long ago that some people were criticising Timeform for rating Frankel 142 on ONE performance (2000 Guineas). Now it is wrong that Danedream ISN’T rated higher than 132. Even when (like Frankel) it is just ONE performance of that merit (went up from 125 previously). With 132 being just 1 lb short of Goldicova who’s put up numerous top class efforts. :roll:

    Value Is Everything
    #373248
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    Timeform’s in season ratings are not the same as the end of season. More often than not they are adjusted downwards when the Annual is published compared to the black book. This allows for over-hype to be re-assessed in the cold light of day.

    In respect of Dream Ahead’s rating, if you think Goldikova ran within 4lbs of her best ever performance on Sunday then it makes sense. Otherwise you take the contrary view.

    #373258
    Avatar photoGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 33183

    I too believe Goldicova is below her best this season EF, but even so it was a good effort to be six lengths clear of the rest. If Dream Ahead weren’t in the race we’d all be saying what a brilliant performance it was.

    Timeform ratings can be rated downwards at the end of the year, but nowhere near as often as you make out and not by significant amounts. Harbinger’s 140 for example was not changed. And there is NO "over-hype" with Timeform.

    Value Is Everything
    #373261
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    When Phil Bull was at the reins there was certainly more rounding down than nowadays. Since he departed from this earth the organization is not as good as it was in my opinion.

    #373296
    Avatar photoHurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1533

    Its a shame that just because Danedream is not English or Irish trained that people have not given her the credit she deserves. Winning in such an emphatic fashion, her 3rd all aged group one on a variety of going, she has to be regarded as the best middle distance horse in Europe.

    I felt the same when Timeform gave Zenyatta a mere 125 rating when she was obviously one of the most amazing horses ever seen on a racecourse.

    If a English or French horse had won the Arc like Danedream did they’d be comparing him/her to Sea Bird II

    She has absolutely hosed in and treated the opposition with exactly the same contempt as she has done in 4 of her last 5 races. No idea what went wrong at Saint-cloud

    The biggest joke is they have given her the same rating as Rewilding ?? but that’s because they’ve overrated So You Think to start with and they can’t bend the figures round that. There just isn’t enough room to fit them all in when you consider the likes of Deacon Blues is 130+ and Frankel is 142. In reality you couldn’t fit them into the same handicap if the 2 raced at the same trip.

    It’s all fine and well saying it wasn’t a great Arc now but she’s made a top class field look useless.

    She looks an exceptional horse and she’s probably as good as Zarkava was and the ratings are pretty meaningless and Britsh :roll:

    #373306
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Goldikova isn’t a 7f horse (Her only win at the distance coming on very soft ground) and, as a consequence of the fast ground and steady pace on Sunday, probably ran her worst race of the season.
    We shall see how much "she’s below her best this season" when she brings home the bacon in the Breeder’s Cup, for the 4th year in succession.

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