- This topic has 350 replies, 76 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 1 month ago by
.
-
Posts
-
- Total Posts 17716
Well Fallon put in his bid to ride one of the O’Brien runners this afternoon:
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news … ml&BID=465
Casting his bread upon the waters (or maybe his water upon the bread….)
I would hope that they do put on a top jockey, but would have more faith in O’Brien in a big field than Heffernan. Please correct me if I am wrong it is rare to see Heffernan putting horses into small gaps and the Arc is never a smooth passage.
However, my impression has been it is the Ballydoyle rider who knows the horse best seems to get the ride and I have heard no mention that O’Brien ever rides him out.
read in the racing post that hiruno darmour price was cut because of sparkling gallop but seems to be removed from betting does anyone know if something has happened to him
I have seen that article about him being cut, but I haven’t noticed him being removed from the betting.
Here is the link to Oddschecker…
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/prix-de-larc-de-triomphe
I am hopeful of a big run from him at the weekend, so would HATE to see him not line up!!
Has there been anything confirmed with the AOB team yet? I must admit it’s no suprise that AOB does not endear himself to punters; whether it is just our punters’ paranoiea I don’t know but does it now ALWAYS seem as if Ballydoyle is SHROUDED in secrecy.
Personally I don’t like all of that secrecy, all of the ‘will he/won’t he(?)’ that the racing public finds themselves thinking every time there is due to be an AOB presence in a big race.
Rant over. Hope Hiruno stays in
JOB cannot ride tactically at all IMO – only steering jobs and his timing needs a bit of work!! (like just about every other apprentice). I will lose a considerable amount of respect for the Ballydoyle stable if he’s put up on their number 1 for the Arc. I’ve just posted vids of Hurricane Fly and Dylan Thomas on my blog
(not touting for visitors just stating a fact)
and Fallon is (was?) and exceptional jockey around this course. It’d be a shame for that knowledge/experience not to be utilised.
The ride on Hurricane Run was very nice I have to say. But ones like that where a runner threads a passage from the back of the field are always nice. However like every other jockey, Fallon was not immune to a bad ride, and he had some nightmares at Longchamp too. Look up the 2007 Prix Du Moulin.
The idea that Joseph O’Brien or Seamie Heffernan will turn victory into defeat is ludricious. It’s simply lazy analysis and I can only explain it by people wishing to make us all think that they are all experts in jockeyship themselves? As if any of the jockey bashers have ever sat on a horse!!
It’s a one-off race. The jockeys will deal with the race as it unfolds and as with all Arcs, there probably will be some hard luck stories. But a horse ridden by Lemaire or Moore could just as easily be subject to some bad luck as one that’s ridden by Heffernan or O’Brien. You can’t make a prediction about who’s going to get involved in bad luck though (it’s an inevitable part of racing), which is why I find it amazing that people will change their selection because of a change in jockey?
A jockey can’t do much with a lousy horse, but he can help a great horse win.
I think the jockey accounts for 15% of a horse’s performance on any given day. He takes the horse strengths and weaknesses into account and adjusts his strategy accordingly
http://imagicon.info/cat/10-3/vbulletin-smile.gif
In all fairness, what would Fallon or Murtagh do to maximise SYT’s strengths and lessen his weaknesses that Heffernan for instance could not?
I would put the figure of 15% a lot lower, maybe 1-2%. 15% would make a 3/1 shot (ridden by a good jockey) a 9/1 shot if ridden by a so-called lesser jockey. Is So You Think a 3/1 chance ridden by a "top" jockey and 9/1 ridden by Heffernan? Certainly not.
You are correct in stating that no jockey is immune from bad luck / bad rides / making wrong decisions.
However you reduce the chances of this occurring if you use better jockeys / those that know the animal / experts around the couse.I think a good jockey, eg a Dettori, Fallon, or Moore; might be worth a pound or two, three at most. The biggest attribute they have though is making fewer mistakes than others. ie Physically a good jockey doesn’t make a horse much better than it is for other jockeys. But they do enable the horse to produce its rating more often than for other jockeys.
The problem with Master O’Brien is he’s still an apprentice who still claims a 3lb allowance. An allowance he can’t claim in Group races. Effectively, every time he rides in a Group 1 he’s a 3lb penalty. That added to his inexperience, means I’d want a bigger price for a horse ridden by JPO in a Group 1 race.
In the St Leger, I know I backed Seville but don’t think it is pocket talk, JPO went after and then added to an already fast pace, when there was a fairly strong headwind up the straight (so unless a front / prominent runner keeps something back it’s likely to favour those who’ve taken some shelter)…. Wasn’t the brightest of things to do. Don’t believe it made the difference of winning and losing, but would’ve been closer. Just one mistake by the claimer unable to claim.
Don’t get me wrong, Joseph is a very good and promising young apprentice, but he is an apprentice. There are many journeymen jockeys who never get the chance at the top table. Group 1 jockeys are the best riders around, well usually. Yes, deserves credit for the Irish Guineas win (an exception). Helped by those normally consistent jockeys having a bad day, not taking him on up front.
Value Is EverythingAm I missing something or does Treasure Beach seem like a screaming each way shot at 40/1?
Lightly raced obviously as a 3 year old and if you throw out his last race in France, I believe his form stacks up nicely with many of the more fancied runners – probably better than Workforce and So You Think if you consider the win over Nathaniel at Chester.
Or, is this just a stepping stone for the Breeder’s Cup Turf in November and they figure that he needs a run prior to that?
Cheers and best wishes on Sunday
Karl
Does the same logic or reasoning apply to McCoy and Walsh as to the flat jockeys? Would a claimer be as good as McCoy or Walsh?Would any other jockey be equal to Walsh? Does a jockey make a difference or was Eddery, Cauthen et. al. just lucky or did they contribute to the success of the mounts they rode? I believe that a good jockey is worth his fee twice over.
i have to agree with you there andy.you need a good jock for this type of race.even the great sea the stars needed all kinanes experience and patience having looked in trouble for a while in the race.fallon is brilliant around longchamp,the ride he gave hurricane run was fantastic.he is also brilliant around epsom and every other big race if you ask me.he has nerves of steel,is a man for the big day and id want him on board if i had him backed,but id say they wont put him up somehow and heffernan will keep the ride…
Am I missing something or does Treasure Beach seem like a screaming each way shot at 40/1?
Lightly raced obviously as a 3 year old and if you throw out his last race in France, I believe his form stacks up nicely with many of the more fancied runners – probably better than Workforce and So You Think if you consider the win over Nathaniel at Chester.
Or, is this just a stepping stone for the Breeder’s Cup Turf in November and they figure that he needs a run prior to that?
Cheers and best wishes on Sunday
Karl
Aye, fair point. Considering Pour Moi’s been retired, the title of Best 12 Furlong Three-Year-Old is up for grabs, and TB has got to be up there. That said, having taken a pounding AP on this, I’m waiting until the final declarations – anyone know when that’s going to be?
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Certain jockeys ride certain tracks well, because tracks in this country are not merely ovals, to say jockey A is better than jockey B is trite. Frankie is masterful at Ascot and at Doncaster he has a great record in the staying races. Kieran always rode Epsom with great authority although since his return he is no better than Ryan Moore on the Downs.
Longchamp is not a straightforward course and even the best jockeys get it wrong. Overall Dettori’s record on the course is better than Fallon’s but if I would rate Peslier and Soumillon as superior at that course. Whoever rides a foreign-trained horse in the Arc knows he will get no favours from the home contingent.
Even "Good" jockeys are not error proof, but I’ve never yet seen a jockey that can make a slow horse fast.
I have seen a horse so slow that he actually stopped: and still win for McCoy!!!! So it is trite to say that Ruby Walsh is better than Whoever.Then I believe in trite.It is trite to say that McCoy is the "best"jockey? Then I believe in trite.It is trite to say that Lester was the best wherever he rode. Then I believe in trite.
I think a good jockey, eg a Dettori, Fallon, or Moore; might be worth a pound or two, three at most.
Actually what I should have said was "three pounds at most on a horse of normal temperament on the flat". Some jockeys get more out of temperamental horses, particularly those they know.
In the Arc’s case, I can’t think of any horse, apart from possibly St Nicholas Abbey, who I’d describe at all as having any temperamental problem. Even he is no "squiggle" horse.
It’s different over jumps. Far more horses have temperament defects and jumping ability is another consideration. eg I’d take a much shorter price for a Henderson novice having its second run of the season, than I would Nigel Tinkler. Especially if the horse had a less than good record of jumping hurdles.
An established good jumping, genuine chaser may well have a better chance with a good claiming jockey on board.
McCoy, Walsh, Gerraghty, Dettori, Moore, Fallon are all "better jockeys". However, punters know that, often resulting in their mounts being over-bet. You’ve only got to take a look at the Jockeys Championship to see the enormous loss you’d make backing top jockeys blind. Where as finding a good claimer before the racing media talk them up, can pay dividends. Their mounts often being under-bet.
Value Is EverythingAm I missing something or does Treasure Beach seem like a screaming each way shot at 40/1?
Lightly raced obviously as a 3 year old and if you throw out his last race in France, I believe his form stacks up nicely with many of the more fancied runners – probably better than Workforce and So You Think if you consider the win over Nathaniel at Chester.
Or, is this just a stepping stone for the Breeder’s Cup Turf in November and they figure that he needs a run prior to that?
Cheers and best wishes on Sunday
Karl
I just came on here to write the same thing and saw your post. Chester Vase winner, second by a head at Epsom, won the Irish Derby and a good result in America.The ground should be fine as well. 40/1 seems outstanding to me.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.