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At 25s, I’m happy to take the chance Frankel will get the trip
Joe there’s more chance of
Sir des Champs
running in the Arc than
Frankel
and thats only because he’s got a french name!
Besides I’m not sure the RSPCA would let a horse who’s stamina is so much in question actually run! 
Well done if you took that 25/1
As for Gordon….The lord said shut your face and his face was shut
Just as well you can laugh at yourself Gord
Can’t wait to here what you have to say when Sprinter Sacre is stepped up to 3 miles.What I would really like to know is where is the second market for the ARC?
Some bookies are happy to lay Frankel at 1/3 with a run but there’s no price allowances for the others if he does run.
For example Danedream is 6/1 but even if you fancied her till the cows come home without knowing if Frankel runs or not you couldn’t possibly take that price.
The bookies are already sitting with satchels full of ante post that were struck when Frankel was not being considered for the race and they are quite happy to keep market dormant and hope he does run. They clean up if he does
No doubt some big bookie will make offers like if your horse finishes 2nd to Frankel we will return your ante post stake…….with up to 50 quid in small writing.
There must be a lot of punters out there praying Frankel wont run because if he does they have no chance of winning..poor sods
I took the 25s but quickly traded out as it’s beginning to look highly unlikely he will run.
I suspect connections were caught up in that big emotional rolling wave of hope and enthusiasm that rolled off the Knavesmire on Wednesday afternoon. They rode it like a skillful surfer and now that it’s flattening out they will, I think, quietly resume training the horse for the Champion Stakes.
A shame in a way because if a doubt remains in the eyes of connections that he will stay another 352 yards beyond the York trip, that lone seems ridiculous as a reason not to go.
There must be something else driving their decision – whether it is travelling, ground fears or traffic issues in the race, I don’t know. Personally, I’d rather see him run and lose (assuming there are no excuses), than not run and maintain his unbeaten record.
That said, I simply could not see him being beaten there if TQ got the run he wanted. Ground and trip simply would not affect such a freakishly wonderful horse.
Having watched the Arc second win yesterday and the Arc first win the King George two weeks ago it is difficult to see what is to prevent Danedream from repeating again,(Yogi Berra) so to speak.
Masterstroke runs in the Grand Prix de Deauville this afternoon. Not a race to have thrown up many Arc winners (Molvedo in 1961 was the last to win both races in the same year), however Godolphin have very little else to aim at the race so a good run this afternoon should book him a place in October.
He took long enough to suggest that the Longchamp straight may not be to his benefit. Mind in the Hocquart on Guineas day he was "outstayed" by Top Trip who was a length behind today. He is improving but whether he is improving enough to be a factor is another question.
The Arc favours 3yo but the division looks moderate. The St Leger-Arc double has never been done in the same season so even if Camelot did win the former, the portents would not be good.
Danedream has not hit the level she achieved last year but still sets the standard although Meandre and Galikova seem to be steadily working their way towards the race. Orfevre would warrant serious consideration as I believe he is being aimed at the race.
I’d have to say that assuming a certain Juddmonte colt heads elsewhere, Imperial Monarch looks the value. Looks trappy, and i would think Danedream should be a solid enough jolly.
I don’t know how man have tried to win 2 Arcs but the last horse to do so was Alleged when Lester rode them to sleep.
Outside of Frankel, Danedream may be the best we have seen for sometime. Many said her Arc win was a fluke but subsequent events have proved them wrong.
You have to take into consideration that she probably hasn’t been seen at her best so far this season as they will surely be looking to peak her or the Arc. That didn’t stop her winning the King George so I’d have to agree she is a worthy fav.
I’d love to see Frankel go but Sir Henry has never liked the race and if he wants to run the great horse at Ascot who’s to argue.
Camelot wouldn’t win if he set of now and is probably no better than his current rating suggests. As I have said several times he most likely wont run if he win the Triple Crown.
Sea Moon was disappointing last time but SMS believes he’s much better than that and the Arc is the type of race I can see him excelling in. Definitely still on my short list.
Nathaniel will run well without winning.
Fillies and mares have the habit of improving beyond all recognition without notice and the horse that could shock them all is Snow Fairy. She was easy to back in the Jean Romanet and nowhere near her peak but still manged to win yet another group 1. Much depends on how she has come out of that race. She had 5 lengths to make up with Danedream but she’s the type if switched of completely could find a burst of speed at exactly the right time.
Snow Fairy is 41 on the machine for pennies but the market is in utter chaos as the front 2 could easily drop out. Could be a few quid to pick up backing her to lay by taking everything above 30’s on offer
Once we know for sure what runs if Frankel is absent I doubt if she’ll be much ew value and will be single figures if the front 2 come out so I’ve had an ew tickle at 25/1 and 20/1 while the going is good.
And what’s about Danedream finding strong opposition from her homeland?
There are Pastorius, Novellist, Salomina (Schiergen said a few weeks ago: she is better than Danedream was at the same time when she was a 3yo).
I’ve a dream: SNA in 6th place on Arc-Day 2012 with a hard driven finish between Frankel, Danedream, Salomina, Pastorius and Novellist.
What a race! I wouldn’t be too unhappy seeing Frankel first under these circumstances.
The form of last year’s race has been called into question by some but the first six home have all won group 1 events this season.
That didn’t stop her winning the King George so I’d have to agree she is a worthy fav.
Camelot wouldn’t win if he set of now and is probably no better than his current rating suggests. As I have said several times he most likely wont run if he win the Triple Crown.
But she isn’t favourite, although I did say I thought she should be – currently available at 7/1, with Camelot best priced 3/1.
I wouldn’t write Camelot off with anything like the certainty you have – but I certainly think the market is currently ‘wrong’, which is obviously good for the punters who don’t like the jolly much.
I wouldn’t back Camelot ante-post at 3/1 but, given decent ground, I will happily bet him on the day if he turns up and Frankel doesn’t.
Interesting that you write him off HGM, without a second thought. He’s beaten no stars but no stars turned up to face him. He’s won four Gr1s and is unbeaten, probably still improving and won last time despite hating the desperate ground. If the going at Longchamp was bad I’d be wary but I think he is special – his Guineas win showed me that.
I could count on one hand the number of times I’ve been flat racing in the last decade but I’ll have my second outing in a month on Leger day after seeing Frankel at York.
I’m happy to be old enough to remember Nijinsky well although I could never have afforded then to go and see him in the flesh. But I’m looking forward to being able to do so when Camelot ‘bookends’ my racing life at Doncaster with a Triple Crown Victory.
Masterstroke is now generally 16-20. It is amazing really, he still needs to improve around 10lb to make the frame in an average renewal of the race. I asked for a price for the double of winning on Sunday and winning the Arc and the firm never bothered to get back to me.
And what’s about Danedream finding strong opposition from her homeland?
There are Pastorius, Novellist, Salomina (Schiergen said a few weeks ago: she is better than Danedream was at the same time when she was a 3yo).
I’ve a dream: SNA in 6th place on Arc-Day 2012 with a hard driven finish between Frankel, Danedream, Salomina, Pastorius and Novellist.
What a race! I wouldn’t be too unhappy seeing Frankel first under these circumstances.
Sunday’s Grosser Preis sees Danedream, Pastorius and Novellist face each other. It should give us some idea regarding the quality of the middle distance 3yo from Germany. In truth it would not take much for them to be superior to those in this country.
Pastorius beat Novellist in the Deutsches Derby when the latter was long odds-on, the former has since added another group 1 over 10f on soft. He is currently 25/1 generally for the Arc with both Danedream and Novellist shorter in the betting. A win on Sunday will make that seem a very big price indeed.Masterstroke is now generally 16-20. It is amazing really, he still needs to improve around 10lb to make the frame in an average renewal of the race. I asked for a price for the double of winning on Sunday and winning the Arc and the firm never bothered to get back to me.
I looked through the betting and selected Masterstroke, Imperial Monarch and Main Sequence as three available at 20/1 who I wouldn’t touch with a barge pole. Camelot at 9/4 is laughably short.
I reckon Nathaniel should be double figure odds and given that Danedream has been there and bought the t-shirt she should be a fair bit shorter than Nathaniel, given the extra questions he has to answer by comparison. I think Danedream would be my choice with the gun at my head, and if she were trained by O’Brien or Fabre she would be the favourite as far as I am concerned.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A while back when Camelot was nowhere near a certainty to run in the guineas I request odds for him to win the guineas the derby and the arc and was quoted 20/1 which of course I did not take though i was quite certain he will run in the guineas knowing AO he wasn`t not going to run him but still, if it was a NR no bet then maybe it would have been worth a punt at the time. So I`m going to stick to that, I still fancy Camelot to run in and win it. Some say he has beaten nothing on this way to the two classics and thus don`t really rate him highly, well I believe AO has said he believe Camelot is the best horse he has ever trained so got to give him at least a little credit and give Camelot the benefit of the doubt. I do hope he will run as it will make the Arc all the more exciting which in my opinion already promises to be a very good Arc.
To deviate a little I think Frankel should have run in the Arc he had earned that and would have taken in the world of beating, I think a lot would have had to go against him and still would have a really good chance but that`s my opinion and I know Cecil know a lot more about racing and Frankel than me but that don`t mean I have to agree.
I`m not a Frankel fan but you got to admirer him.
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