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I was updating my handicap sheet this morning when I came across
Aaman
which ran in the 4.20 Southwell AW on the 28th January 2010.
This race being a low standard class 6 apprentice handicap should not have been of much interest, but when my calculator said the horse had improved 23lb’s (3 grades) up from C7/C6 to a C4, my first reaction was WTF.
The handicapper has to put up this horse by at least 25lb’s just to be on the safe side, after the enterprising ride his young jockey gave him by winning by 16 lengths.
Aaman is the fourth highest improver in the past year at 23+ on my list and he is entered in a class 6 amateur handicap at Southwell 1.30 tomorrow (2nd Feb) with no penalty.
Bound to be odds-on, but this has to a steering job, and even Big Mac could steer this one home.
I just wonder if the trainer had a few words with the jockey, as winning a race is ok, but not by 16 lengths as the handicapper will have his revenge.Now I have made this statement we better lay him to lose
Won by 12 lengths and handicapper has raised him 20lb’s
Looking at my handicap list for today, I have fulford +14 running and can he win?
I have updated my form macro to look at the best two races of every horse in the race from November 2009 onwards, and then combined speed and class to produce the top ten form races.2.00 Southwell:
Fulford 04-Feb-10 Sth 6St/Slw C7Hc 2K
59 111.32
Cheery Cat 10-Jan-10 Sth 6Sl C6Hc 1K
56 107.69
Fuzzy Cat 21-Dec-09 Kem 6St C6Hc 1K 58 105.45
Tri Chara 12-Nov-09 Sth 7St C6Hc 1K
60 111.11
Fuzzy Cat 26-Jan-10 Sth 6St C6Hc 1K 56 101.82
Cheery Cat 26-Jan-10 Sth 6St C6Hc 1K
52 100.00
Vogarth 08-Jan-10 Sth 7Sl C6Hc 2K
58 104.55
Makshoof 01-Dec-09 Lin 6St C6Hc 1K
55 105.77
Angle Of Attack 20-Jan-10 Kem 7St C6Hc 1K
59 106.36
Tri Chara 08-Feb-10 Wol 7St C6Sl 1K
54 99.07
On current form Fulford has come out on top with class figure of 59 and he is still well handicapped at 111.32% against his offical BHA figure.
The horse with the best form in the race is Tri Chara, but he is running over 6 furlongs today, because his odds this morning were 16/1 he needs to be looked at.Selection: Fulford
Danger: Tri CharaFulford (9/2) finished 2rd beaten a neck by Fuzzy Cat and his 5lb claimer Dean Heslop, made the difference.
I was just updating my handicap list when I came across
Saddlers Bend
which ran on the 26th March at Wolverhampton over 6f in a Class 7 race.
I seen some horses plotted up in my time but this one goes into Gay Future category.
On his run here he improved 19+ (in a Class 7, "oh come on").Form Reads:
26Feb10 Wol 6St C7Hc 1K 8-7 1/12 2¾L, Royal Acclamation[9/2]8-13 Nathan Alison 45 — 65
20Jul09 Bal 9Y 6K 9-0 12/13 42L, Loch Long[50/1]9-5t W J Supple 44 — —
10Jun09 Fai 10Y 3yHc 4K 7-13 16/18 40L, Miss Al Gunn[33/1]9-8t G F Carroll 47 — —
22May09 Wex 9Y/Sft 7K 8-9 14/16 22L, Anam Chara[50/1]9-0 E J McNamara — 10 30
13May09 Naa 8Gd/Y 10K 8-9 15/20 19L, Dance Pass[50/1]9-0 E J McNamara — — 30
29Mar09 Leo 10GF 3y 11K 8-7 16/16 46L, Roses For The Lady[50/1]9-0t I J Brennan — — —Running today
in the 5.40 Wolverhampton, another steering job?
Won 11/10F (I expect the handicapper to raise this horse up 16lb’s)
I was looking at the Kempton race card from Saturday 27th and another star has slipped under the radar in
Escort’man
whose winning time was 6.6secs faster than the time achieved by Punjabi over the same trip.
I adjusted Escort’man weight to the same weight Punjabi carried i.e. 11-10 and the handicap ratings came out as:Punjabi 123
Escort’man 122What a shame Escort’man has no entry at Cheltenham as Paul Nicholls has another star on his hands.
Now that the Flat racing is back I have decided to run a separate handicap for 2YO’s only.
I was comparing last years winner of the Brocklesby "Hearts Of Fire" (Rating 85) with this year’s winner "Chiswick Bey" (Rating 76).
Hearts of fire who improved to Group Class was still 2.5 lengths superior over the 5f trip compared to Chiswick Bey’s time, after going allowances were taken into consideration.The 2YO handicap list can be viewed here.
[code:3qcps7od]http://tinyurl.com/ydyj6vw[/code:3qcps7od]
Richard Fahey now has 3 horses in the top ten in my 2YO handicap list.
Arctic Feeling (IRE)
goes to joint top of the ratings after lowering the juvenile course record at Southwell AW, and Richard Fahey also won the other division of the 2YO maiden with
Jamesway (IRE)
.
Comparing the two horses, Arctic Feeling was 3.4 lengths superior over the 5f trip to his stable companion Jamesway.[code:30icts5r]http://tinyurl.com/ydyj6vw[/code:30icts5r]
From the 2YO handicap list we have
Future Impact
who is in the top ten, running today in the 2.25 Dundalk AW, with J Murtagh riding.
[code:m2c2plz6]http://tinyurl.com/ydyj6vw[/code:m2c2plz6]
3rd
– prominent and disputed, close 2nd halfway, ridden and disputed 1f out, no extra inside final furlong when slightly hampered
The 2YO handicap list is starting to take shape and Richard Hannon now has the top three rated 2YO’s.
Every 2YO in UK and Ireland is rated and for betting purposes only the horses in the top 20 should be followed.2YO’s:
[code:3b9ol3gh]http://tinyurl.com/ydyj6vw[/code:3b9ol3gh]Football Odds:
[code:3b9ol3gh]http://tinyurl.com/ydgaf3g[/code:3b9ol3gh]Handicap List:
[code:3b9ol3gh]http://tinyurl.com/dy6pq4[/code:3b9ol3gh]Tomorrow on my handicap list I have
Bernix
+16 down to run and in a video which I produced I explained to a board member why I didn’t think the horse will win.
WMV format (5.48MB):
[code:2vt9jst6]http://tinyurl.com/23uos27[/code:2vt9jst6]Eat your heart out "Couch" there is another idiot on the block
It show’s you that I know nothing as Bernix wins at 20/1
Off the handicap list today we have
Pricipal Role +20
running in the 5.05 Newmarket.
It is rare to have horse rated +20 on the list, and this time I am not going to make a video, as I think that the horse only has to turn up to win i.e. steering job.[code:2uaie5b9]http://tinyurl.com/dy6pq4[/code:2uaie5b9]
Crapola, only finished 4th
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