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i know the usa have been using speed ratings for years which is roughly how much im behind you with this about 30 yrs
by the time i catch up i will be dead……lol
over here most of the top speed raters are the favs now and most time less than eves on the odds (aw)
but then can do realy bad on the turf
we have a saying over here…….a handicapper makes a good horse slow,and a slow horse fast
- Total Posts 55
Unlikely that I will have little financial interest in either AW races at Lingfield.
In summary
7.55 it looks doubtful that an E.W. price will be available for PICCADILLY FILLY 87 as the field has already been reduced to 8. A rating that is better than average for a 2yo but not unbeatable in a relatively unexposed field.
8.25 It is rare to see such a modest bunch for a large field at Lingfield. OUR KES is not my top rated but appears to be the only one with the right credentials of my top three to belong in the race and is currently 20-1.
I will watch with interest but wont be playing.
got me book a few days ago
had a play yesterday by using the class rating for each race and matching the horse closest to this which was also a speed rater
quite surprisingly i had a very good day(can send screen shot of betfair account)
bath
compton classic-2nd
sheshali won 11/1
point of light won 4/1
flying valintino 3rd
speak the truth won 18/1haydock
deaville flyer won
kaptain kurpup won
bens dream lost
drum dragon lost
royal premium (low or rated high speed)new
teeky won
poets voice won
baunagain lost
aflaam lost
credit swap wonall i did was try to match the or rating to the or rating of that class and then picked the fastest one
will try again today and see what happensusing these speed figures is proving very affective
had 110 points at lingfield yesterday
and a great finish to taday with seraglio at market rasen……55/1 on bf
and recession proof which i traded at 28/1 and avongate at newbury which was 8/1just got the other book now so will be busy for a while
- Total Posts 55
3.00 Wolverhampton New England 90 is more appealing with Luke Morris aboard but to short for me.
3.30 Wolverhampton top rated Dixie Bright 88 Silver Symphony 87 appear awell ahead of those thar have run on AW. Would need 10-1 to play with 4 unknown quantities in the race.
4.00 Wolverhampton not a happy hunting ground for mty top rated Ugenius 91 but a very generous EW price and the trip is more to his liking.
4.30 Wolverhampton Silcan Meydan 87 is well exposed at a short priced and I would be suprised if someone isnt going there with the knowledge they have the beating.
5.00 Wolverhampton Lytham 88 Questionable history at this track C&D was 5 years ago but good EW claims in an out of form field Lytham appears to be the exception.
5.30 Wolverhampton Snowberry Hill 88 looks well ahead on ratings but is unlikely to be at an attractive enough price to warrrant an EW bet.
If I ever wondered how accurate my handicap ratings were, I only have to look at two recent examples.
On the 26th September Kempton AW, Dramatic Jewel (USA) finished 4th to Mutamayez off an official rating of 46 and in my handicap I put him in at 63 (+17), and when the handicapper reassessed him he put him up to 65 (+19).
On the same day at Ascot. Dyna Waltz finished 5th to Hibaayeb off an official rating of 79 and In my handicap I raised him to 103 (+24) and when reassessed by the handicapper he put him up to 103 (+24).
These are two examples of horses not getting into the frame being put up +19 and +24 on their ratings, and people wonder why it is hard to win when you thought you had an edge!
do you find you have alot of non runners,
i spend ages sorting everything out to find the next day they are all non runnersvery impressive thou
I refresh the decs list everyday, and tomorrows runners (5th Oct) were just updated at 17.00PM.
I find that the 2 day declarations for trainers isn’t working as they come up with all sorts of excuses not to run.
sorry i didnt mean with yr database.
i ment generaly you find that the ones that are being underhandicapped seem to be the non runnersi have viewed your database on a few occasions , and as i said
very impressive
there are so many angels out there but i find that speed and handicapping seems the way forward
keep up the good work
takecare
My Handicap Ratings for SEA THE STARS
and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.SEA THE STARS (IRE)
– My Handicap Ratings
04 October 2009 Lon 12Gd G12219K131
05 September 2009 Leo 10Gd/Y G1552K
131
18 August 2009 Yor 10GF C1G1340K
132
04 July 2009 San 10Gd C1G1283K
130
06 June 2009 Eps 12Gd C13yG1709K
112
02 May 2009 Nmk 8GF C13yG1241K
123
28 September 2008 Cur 8Y 2yG259K
94
17 August 2008 Leo 7Sft/Hy 2y9K
85
13 July 2008 Cur 7Gd 2y9K
88
Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) (Colts & Fillies)
Sea The Stars (IRE)
131
Youmzain (IRE)
129
Cavalryman
128
Conduit (IRE)
128
Dar Re Mi
124
Fame And Glory
124
La Boum (GER)
122
Stacelita (FR)
121
Magadan (IRE)
124
Vision D’Etat (FR)
123
Tangaspeed (FR)
119
Beheshtam (FR)
121
Getaway (GER)
117
The Bogberry (USA)
117
Hot Six (BRZ)
104
Tullamore (USA)
102
Grand Ducal (IRE)
95
Set Sail (IRE)
92
Steele Tango (USA)
70
Hi all
I have just been reading the thread and found it interesting as i am just starting out with speed handicapping myself and was wondering which was the best way to go with it in regards to creating standard times of my own and compiling the base figures to start with and my idea was to just concentrate on the AW to keep it simple as i have never done it before and also due to work constraints i would be playing catchup all the time.
My first idea was to use the RP Standards but i did notice that winning times can vary between sites for some reason?? ie rp and atr have different winning times for races so that made me think that it would be best to create my own, would i be right in thinking that i need to have times for each different class and distance. I was told that i should take my figures from 4yo+ races and see that this has been mentioned on here as well and any help or guidance would be appreciated as i have been surfing for months to find info on this subject and it has not been a great success, i have seen Actuary mention Beyer & Mordin on a couple of forums and until last night i could not find anything about their books but i see that they have been found on play.com and was wondering if they were worth buying ??.
thanks and please excuse me butting in.with out the books you will not know how to build speed figures…if you are doing your own you wont need to use any others , or you can copy racing post but i advise you do your own….good luck
I have just spent the last week adjusting all my handicap ratings in my excel sheet to bring every horse in the list up-to-date.
New horses were added and some were deleted.
I could say that this was a labour of love but all I got from it was a headache [code:3rw3gl2o]http://tinyurl.com/dy6pq4[/code:3rw3gl2o]
On the 13th November I had Nacho Libre +13 on my handicap list.
Nacho Libre reappeared 4 days later 17th at Southwell and was made 3-1 favourite, from experience I knew that there would be a horse who had dropped off the radar with his offical rating down to blot my handicap so called good thing.
With this in mind I wrote a simple macro in excel which collected the best 3 class ratings (2009) on any horse and to return a percentage to show the current horse’s offical ratings against his best top 3 ratings.
I am looking for a horse that is top rated and has a percentage rating of at least 100% + and when I ran the macro, up popped "Punching" at 136% and my first thoughts were WTF…
When I read the form of Punching his handicap mark had dropped by 10lb and he only wins at Southwell these days.
Nacho Libre was rated 67 for the race (3rd) with Punching on 79 (1st) 12lb clear and he won pulling up at 7-2.
I have been testing this macro on bad AW races and the results look good, still work in progress.Example:
6.00 Kempton 19th Nov (C3)(Class Par 92)
HORSE
Shifting Star 95 101.61%
Ray Of Joy 86 102.38%
Haajes 85 100.00%
Princess Valerina 85 103.05%
Earlsmedic 84 105.00%
Princess Valerina 84 101.83%
Earlsmedic 83 103.13%
River Kirov 82 101.88%Shifting Star is the class horse of the race on 95 (3rd), and the best handicapped horse is Earlsmedic at 105%. (Won 6/1)
Just food for thought…
I thought I would look at the 9.20 Wolverhampton (C7) tonight using my new form macro.
The higher the OR % the better the horse is handicapped againgt his offical BHA OR rating.
1.
Libre
(3rd 33/1)
2.Casablanca Minx
(needs further)
3.Bidable
(1st 4/1)
9.20 Wolverhampton (C7) (Class Par 52)
Top Performers listed below:
Casablanca Minx 16-Feb-09 Wol 12St C6Hc 1K
58
126.09%
Libre 12-Sep-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K
57
115.31%
Libre 16-Jun-09 Yar 7Gd C6Hc 2K
57
115.31%
Bidable 31-Aug-09 Chp 7Gd C6Hc 2K
55
110.00%
Spanish Cross 27-Oct-09 Yar 10Gd C6Sl 1K
53
108.16%
Libre 13-Aug-09 Chp 8Gd C6Hc 2K
52
106.12%
Bidable 30-Oct-09 Wol 9St C7Hc 2K
51
101.00%
Russian Angel 25-Jul-09 Sal 8GF C5Hc 3K
50
104.17%
Casablanca Minx 04-Jul-09 Not 10Gd C6Hc 1K
50
107.61%
Blue Cross Boy 11-Sep-09 Dro 7Gd/Y Hc 4K
50
101.02%
Bidable 16-Nov-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K
50
99.00%
Casablanca Minx 20-Jul-09 Yar 11Gd C6Hc 2K
49
106.52%
Lunar Limelight 30-Oct-09 Wol 9St C7Hc 2K
49
101.04%
Ruwain 24-Apr-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K
49
101.04%
Looking at my handicap list today I have Shadows Lengthen +15 running today in the 6.15 Wolverhampton.
After running my form macro Shadows Lengthen still has the highest OR % so bar Hucking Hero, there should be nothing to beat him.
So the form selections are:1. Shadows Lengthen (1st 13/8)
2. Hucking Hero
3. Piper´s Song6.15 Wolverhapton (C6) (Class Par 60)
Shadows Lengthen 17-Nov-09 Sth 12St C6Hc 2K 68 130.77% ***
Hucking Hero 07-May-09 Wdr 10GF C4Hc 5K 73 121.67% **
Piper´s Song 17-Apr-09 Kem 10St C6Hc 2K 64 117.59% *
Kames Park 03-Jul-09 Bev 12GF C6Hc 2K 65 116.07%
Piper´s Song 13-May-09 Bat 12Fm C6Hc 2K 62 114.81%
Hucking Hero 25-Mar-09 Kem 8St C5Hc 2K 68 113.33%
Piper´s Song 02-Sep-09 Kem 11St C6Hc 2K 61 112.96%
Rare Coincidence 13-Apr-09 Red 16Fm C6Hc 1K 63 105.93%
Hucking Hero 15-May-09 Nby 10GS C5Hc 3K 64 105.83%
Rare Coincidence 06-Apr-09 Wol 17St C6Hc 2K 62 105.08%
Arashi 17-Sep-09 Wol 9St C53yHc 2K 66 103.13%
Arashi 28-Sep-09 Wol 9St C6Hc 2K 66 102.34%
Shadows Lengthen 21-Apr-09 Sth 11St C63yHc 2K 52 100.00%
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