Private Handicapping

[TheBluesBrother]

The main advantage I see using my spreadsheet, is that it shows up the horses that I have rated 10+ and these should be the ones to concentrate on.
Yesterday Alicante 10+ ran and won, and Rafta 20+ is running tonight and should be in with a serious chance.

These are my ratings for OBE GOLD

DATE RACE CONDITIONS RACE OUTCOME JOCKEY MHR
16 July 2009 Ham 5GF C6Cl2K 1/5 ¾L, Raccoon[6/4F]8-13v Adrian T Nicholls 77
24 June 2009 Crl 5GF C4Hc5K 3/8 2¼L, Sir Nod[13/2]8-11v Adrian T Nicholls 88
05 June 2009 Cat 6GF C4Hc4K 6/9 7½L, Novellen Lad[12/1]8-13v Paul Quinn 73
09 May 2009 Asc 6GF C3Hc7K 10/12 11½L, Striking Spirit[6/1]8-8v Adrian T Nicholls 62
20 April 2009 Pon 6Fm C2Hc11K 3/9 3L, Advanced[7/2]9-4v Adrian T Nicholls 83
15 April 2009 Bev 5GF C3Hc7K 5/17 1¾L, Fol Hollow[14/1]8-3v Paul Quinn 80
20 March 2009 Lin 6St C4Hc4K 1/8 2¼L, Dvinsky[100/30F]9-4v Adrian T Nicholls 79
12 March 2009 Sth 5St C3Hc9K 2/6 1¼L, Arganil[16/1]9-4v Paul Quinn 80
06 October 2008 War 6Sft C4Hc5K 11/12 9¾L, Mullein[33/1]9-5 I Da Costa 58
19 September 2008 Ayr 6Hy C2Hc31K 25/27 22L, Against The Grain[50/1]9-0v Francis Norton 26
11 September 2008 Don 6Sft C3Hc9K 16/21 14L, Main Aim[33/1]9-4p Joe Fanning 64
01 August 2008 Goo 6GF C2Hc18K 12/19 7¼L, Pearly Wey[20/1]9-10v Alan Munro 75
20 June 2008 Red 6Fm C3Hc6K 6/8 2½L, Tabaret[9/1]9-7v Silvestre De Sousa 84
07 June 2008 Eps 6Gd C2Hc15K 11/12 12½L, Mac Gille Eoin[7/1]9-5v T P O’Shea 56
28 May 2008 Grl 6St C3Hc6K 2/9 ¾L, Came Back[2/1F]9-4v Adrian T Nicholls 95
23 May 2008 Hay 6GF C4Hc5K 1/7 3¾L, Heywood[3/1F]9-2v Adrian T Nicholls 90
09 May 2008 Rip 6Gd C4Hc5K 3/6 ½L, Pacific Pride[7/2]8-10 Silvestre De Sousa 90
17 April 2008 Rip 6GS C4Hc4K 6/14 10L, Tajneed[20/1]9-0 Paul Quinn 56
29 March 2008 Don 6Sft C2Hc10K 10/17 16L, Pusey Street Lady[14/1]8-5 Silvestre De Sousa 40

The master rating for this horse would be 88 and his best was 95.
I just spent the last day updating all my 2yo and maiden races.

[mr forecast]

that was a good tip…..mine won and so did yrs

only 3/1 in play but a wins a win

think i need to go on a learn direct course on databases,

[Anonymous]

Hope you might of had a little tickle on some of my top rated yesterday with
Dubai Miracle 1st 13/8
Best In Class 1st 7/1 (opened 10-1)

and Sunami 2nd 8-1 nearly making a treble of my top rated.

Mr Forecast by cutting and pasting from the ‘Racing Post’ like BB you have the option import the data in to cells which will then also allow you import all the data in to Access. Spreadsheets are also a lot better for calculations.

I have been reading ‘Dark Horse’ ebook sent to me by one of the guys posting here. Well worth a read and very expansive investigation. Unfortunately when I tried to contact the guy (might be a girl!) the email is no longer valid and the website appears not to have been updated since 2007.

One thing that I was at logger heads with after all the hard work and research done by Dark Horse was the use of average calculations.

Question to you guys.

Is averaging good enough for the affects of weight ect or should we always be calculating on the merits of each individual horses ability?

[mr forecast]

i think horses individual performance is the key……………….averaging may be quicker………….would like to run the two to see but im so tied up at the mo……………

there is no easy way with this……..its time consuming but the homework is paying off……the speed vs handicap vs track speedsters strike rate is proving very effective…………….

i am thinking of employing a pa……….two hrs a day entering all the stats i need in to a database………that way i can concentrate on betting and trading which im good at

uttoxetter yesterday………….5 winners–5 placed–6 races

[Anonymous]

the speed vs handicap vs track speedsters strike rate is proving very effective

Sounds interesting can you elloborate on this?

I have been busy re-visting VDW and I am looking at a good pairing of ratings for ther final two disciplines. How would the above ratings work out.

uttoxetter yesterday………….5 winners–5 placed–6 races

I hope you were not on Cooksgrove Lady lol. I think you might need to share some of your selections here. I am of to Cuba soon and need more spending money!

i think horses individual performance is the key

I think you are spot on. My view is that you dont look at a winning horses time and the losers time and average the rest of the field to give them a rating. Why average anything else. I am sure you would just end up with AVERAGE results!!!

[mr forecast]

dont want to spoil yr thread by going off course

i have a thread on here about my speed raters

back to yr thread……………..i notice i get alot of placed wins by using this method and alot of n/r

i only use the handicap method for horses that have winning form,……….do you do this or for every horse???

at thirsk today i had royal trooper-tapis world-amethysdawn-gosforthpark
they came 1st 2nd 3rd and 1 non runner

i also picked out jilly why and rafta and bahamain ballard
they came 1st and 2nd and the last lost(i had a draw bias for 4 different horses which lost in same race)

but then i had resurge-last 3 minute and william blake and managed only 1 2nd place

[mr forecast]

lingfield speed ratings has the highest strike rate in the uk (since collecting data)

heres july to date
track win place 4casts days placed bets
lingfield 13 22 6 4 35 42

[TheBluesBrother]

I have just selected a few + horses that are running today from my spreadsheet.

4:45 Newcastle
Sat 25 Jul:

PIMMS BEESWING HANDICAP(CLASS 3)(3yo+ 0-95) Winner £9,347 ATR
Good To Soft 7f Number of runners: 13

1 12 6740-9 PROTECTOR 8 8 9-11 t 93 Tony Hamilton A G Foster – 82
2 7 009421 COBO BAY 8 4 9-9 b 91 Amy Ryan(5) K A Ryan – 100
3 11 -42005 ARABIAN SPIRIT 10 4 9-6 88 Dale Gibson E A L Dunlop – 76
4 3 036220 OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY 14 5 9-5 87 Phillip Makin M Dods – 94
5 2 -04644 MASTERSHIP 17 5 9-5 p 87 Jamie Kyne(5) J J Quinn – 86
6 6 503000 LUCKY DANCE 14 7 9-5 b1 87 Tony Culhane A G Foster – 96
7 5 21-313 ETON RIFLES 18 4 9-4 86 Paul Mulrennan J Howard Johnson – 85
8 10 83535- SILVER RIME 302 4 9-4 86 Kelly Harrison(3) Miss L A Perratt – 88
9 4 30-090 SANTIAGO ATITLAN 8 7 9-3 85 Jamie Moriarty P Monteith – 45
10 1 982915 STEVIE GEE 21 5 9-3 85 P J McDonald G A Swinbank – 83
11 13 /5511- SPIRIT OF A NATION 393 4 9-3 85 Frederik Tylicki(3) D H Brown – 86
12 9 0-0714 SHOTLEY MAC 15 5 9-2 b 84 Martin Lane(5) N Bycroft – 86
13 8 016591 SMARTY SOCKS 15 5 9-2 84 Paul Pickard(5) P T Midgley – 79

Top Rated: COBO BAY 100 (Odds 6/1)
Forecast: LUCKY DANCE 96 (Odds 18/1)

On his last run over 8f COBO BAY received a +15 on my spreadsheet and I have this horse’s
max class as listed (C1).

5:20 Newcastle
Sat 25 Jul:

EMIRATES AIRLINES HANDICAP(CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-85) Winner £5,046 ATR
Good To Soft 5f Number of runners: 8

1 2 60-060 FLASH MCGAHON 16 5 9-11 85 N S Lawes(7) D Nicholls – 72
2 8 038201 LUSCIVIOUS 11 5 9-1 p 75 Frederik Tylicki(3) J A Glover – 90
3 1 220272 SANDWITH 19 6 9-0 74 P J McDonald A G Foster – 72
4 7 422860 BRAVELY 15 5 8-12 72 Paul Mulrennan T D Easterby – 65
5 3 070110 HIGHLAND WARRIOR 5 10 8-11 71 Tony Culhane P T Midgley – 76
6 4 186725 KYZER CHIEF 3 4 8-7 p 67 Kelly Harrison(3) R E Barr – 67
7 6 3-8890 TADALAVIL 5 4 8-6 65 Jamie Kyne(5) Miss L A Perratt – 40
8 5 233636 STEP IT UP 9 5 8-6 59 Martin Lane(5) J R Boyle – 59

Top Rated: LUSCIVIOUS 90 (Odds 2/1)
Forecast: HIGHLAND WARRIOR 76 (Odds 6/1)

On his last run over 6f at Southwell, LUSCIVIOUS received a +12 on my spreadsheet
and this horse only has to turn up to win this race.

8:25 Lingfield
Sat 25 Jul:

WYCH CROSS HANDICAP(CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-65) Winner £2,047 ATR
Good To Firm 7f140y Number of runners: 18

1 12 524647 INDY DRIVER 21 4 9-13 p 64 Hayley Turner J R Fanshawe – 58
2 10 0-4776 FIFTY 22 4 9-11 62 Pat Dobbs R Hannon – 61
3 16 1/666- CAPE COBRA 413 5 9-9 60 Robert Havlin H Morrison – 55
4 9 39-789 ONENIGHTINLISBON 52 5 9-8 59 Pat Cosgrave J R Boyle – 54
5 4 567945 STAR STRIDER 39 5 9-7 58 Kylie Manser(5) Miss Gay Kelleway – 58
6 3 007774 SHAKE ON IT 7 5 9-6 tp 57 Ian Mongan M R Hoad – 59
7 15 -00000 ROYAL ISLAND 15 7 9-6 57 Vince Slattery M G Quinlan – 45
8 14 6-0012 CHIEF EXEC 7 9-6 b 57 Chris Catlin J R Gask – 79
9 2 3306-6 CHAMPAGNE FIZZ 15 3 9-6 65 Dane O´Neill Miss Jo Crowley – 47
10 17 -25466 VANADIUM 7 7 9-6 57 George Baker G L Moore – 64
11 5 950153 GOLDEN PROSPECT 20 5 9-6 57 Liam Jones J W Hills – 58
12 6 8-2327 FLY BY NELLY 41 3 9-4 63 Travis Block H Morrison – 69
13 7 74930- COUP DE TORCHON 327 4 9-4 55 L P Keniry J A Osborne – 54
14 13 8210-9 STATION PLACE 75 4 9-4 55 Stephen Donohoe A B Haynes – 55
15 8 075947 APPLESNAP 22 4 9-4 b 55 Jerry O´Dwyer Miss Amy Weaver – 54
16 1 00-791 AINE´S DELIGHT 27 3 9-1 60 Simon Pearce(7) Andrew Turnell – 51
17 11 670485 BATCHWORTH BLAISE 61 6 9-0 51 Stephen Carson E A Wheeler – 51
18 18 80-237 GUN FOR SALE 75 4 9-0 51 Fergus Sweeney P J Makin – 44

Top Rated: CHIEF EXEC 79 (Odds 6/1)
Forecast: FLY BY NELLY 69 (Odds 10/1)

On his last two runs CHIEF EXEC has a +8 and a +14 on my spreadsheet which
makes him a standout in this class.

[Pompete]

….by cutting and pasting from the ‘Racing Post’ like BB you have the option import the data in to cells which will then also allow you import all the data in to Access. Spreadsheets are also a lot better for calculations…..

Can this still be done with Excel?

Would be handy to know how and any clues would be much appreciated.

[Dices]

Can this still be done with Excel?

Would be handy to know how and any clues would be much appreciated.

http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f23/ … rds-29624/

[Pompete]

Thanks Dices….but all I want to know is how to cut & paste like actuary says. I’m not clever (or bored) enough for anything else.

[Anonymous]

For those interested my Southwell ratings have been posted to my blog.

There seems to be alot of discussion around getting data in to a spreadsheet. Please bare with me and I will show you the way I do a whole card in 10 minutes from RP. I just need to get tomorrows results to complete the process (All will become clear) Hopefully no later than Tuesday. If you are in a greater hurry than this go to my blog and send a comment so I have your email and I will post you a desktop video (raw state, no explanation) of me doing todays card at Southwell.

[mr forecast]

took me an 30mins to do all horses at southwell and

mondays bets

my one weekness—dolphin rock
charles parnell——-fydor
my mentor
elusive fame–swords
crocodile bay
time to regret—flying batham

[mr forecast]

i spent all day yesterday trying to build an automated database with a macro and to say its beyond me is an understatement..

i can now see how you up date yr databases using this method and is the obvious way to do this………….

i have a thread question…………do you split the speed ratings for each horse…ie turf and all weather…….or are you just using one rating regardless of the track

i have two speed ratings for each horse and use the speed rating for each condition………………i find if i use the turf on the all weather then the results are not as good (mainly place)

3:15 turf aw
High Curragh 94 77
Charles Parnell 81 89
Coconut Shy 82 37
Owed 44 72
Days Of Thunder 22
Decider 44 77
Swinbrook 91 81
Fyodor 98 103
Come On Buckers 60 58
Wiltshire 58 67
Favouring 56 59
Monte Mayor Eagle 39 50

as you can see three horses run slower on the aw than the turf and the rest run faster

or am i barking up the wrong tree

[Anonymous]

took me an 30mins to do all horses at southwell and mondays bets

Perhaps you should be the one to help the guys here that need a route to automate the process.

3:15 turf aw
High Curragh 94 77
Charles Parnell 81 89
Coconut Shy 82 37
Owed 44 72
Days Of Thunder 22
Decider 44 77
Swinbrook 91 81
Fyodor 98 103
Come On Buckers 60 58
Wiltshire 58 67
Favouring 56 59
Monte Mayor Eagle 39 50

I am unsure how you are compiling your figures but would not expect them to be so far adrift of mine or any other compiler. Not that it is wise to be judgemental looking at one race.

86 79 Charles Parnell
80 80 Coconut Shy
81 84 Come On Buckers
Days Of Thunder
65 68 Decider
Favouring
High Curragh
80 78 Owed
91 90 Swinbrook
89 88 Wiltshire

It has to be your individual choice but the first thing I have noted from your figures in comparison to mine is once Fyodor (90) came out your top rated would be High Curragh (94). I will not bother to find out how old that rating is but I know it is over 8 months as I have no rating this season for it.

I will also make you aware that some of my best priced winners are horses returning to AW after a couple of dismal efforts on the turf. IMHO keep your AWT Ratings for the AWT and Turf Ratings for the Turf.

[mr forecast]

goodwood

cool strike
royal destination
sunnyside tom
mount hadley
finjaar
gala sunday (beverley)
yes mr president
australai day
bold cross
main aim
mujood

hope this is more accurate

[fmolf]

hello all new to the racing forum….we hav a saying over here in the states the all-weather makes good horses run slower and bad horses run a bit faster.When we adjust the all-weather track speed figures we adjust the good horses numbers downward and the bad horses upward till they level off somewherearound a 90 beyer or so.

[Author]

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