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Posts
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Looking Forward.
4:25 Ascot
Sat 25 Jul:KING GEORGE VI AND QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (SPONSORED BY BETFAIR) (GROUP 1)(CLASS 1)(3yo+)
Good To Firm 1m4f Number of runners: 1931-412 ALWAARY 16 3 8-9 107 J H M Gosden
91 -16
567-11 ASK 50 6 9-7 122 Sir Michael Stoute
107 -15
-31037 BLACK BEAR ISLAND 11 3 8-9 112 A P O´Brien
112 +0
42-828 CAMPANOLOGIST 16 4 9-7 115 Saeed Bin Suroor
118 +3
90-614 CIMA DE TRIOMPHE 21 4 9-7 116 L M Cumani
112 -4
111-23 CONDUIT 21 4 9-7 125 Sir Michael Stoute
120 -5
1-2613 DANSANT 35 5 9-7 112 G A Butler
114 +2
48-171 DOCTOR FREMANTLE 16 4 9-7 111 Sir Michael Stoute
104 -7
7-1149 DUNCAN 16 4 9-7 120 J H M Gosden
111 -9
41-254 FREEMANTLE 11 3 8-9 111 A P O´Brien
114 +3
017-35 FROZEN FIRE 50 4 9-7 117 A P O´Brien
101 -16
1-4152 GOLDEN SWORD 27 3 8-9 119 A P O´Brien
118 -1
12333- IT´S GINO 293 6 9-7 — P Vovcenko
115
213-33 LOOK HERE 28 4 9-4 118 R M Beckett
104 -14
30-234 MASTEROFTHEHORSE 27 3 8-9 119 A P O´Brien
109 -10
131094 ROCKHAMPTON 14 3 8-9 100 A P O´Brien
80 -20
117217 SCINTILLO 27 4 9-7 114 R Hannon
90 -24
123-12 TARTAN BEARER 38 4 9-7 122 Sir Michael Stoute
111 -11
Top Rated: CONDUIT
120 -5
Forecast: CAMPANOLOGIST
118 +3
It is a shame that Sea The Stars is not running because his rating of 130 -1
made him the highest rated horse in my ratings ever…
The Couch reckons that Ryan Moore will ride TARTAN BEARER as this is
The fancy from the Stoute yard, my thoughts are, he will be on Conduit.
On paper this race is only a Group 2 not a Group1!- Total Posts 55
I for one look forward to having a look at your spreadsheet.
After seeing the simplicity of how BlueBrother compiles his ratings I fear you may feel I need to get out more if you see my spreadsheet. I will hopefully get time to post something tomorrow.
I already feel I am invading BluesBrothers space by the number of times I have posted to this forum!
Good luck today with the Scoop 6 I will keep a close eye in between watching the cricket and watching Chelsea start their pre-season against Seattle.
BlueBrother can you tell us based on who’s ideas/books are your ratings compiled on?
Actuary can you tell us also about your ratings?BlueBrother can you tell us based on who’s ideas/books are your ratings compiled on?
Actuary can you tell us also about your ratings?My ratings are not based on anybody’s ideas, but I did read a lot of books on the subject like "Beyer on Speed" etc.
The idea and system I came up with was to find a way to compare my ratings against the offical handicapper, and as far as I am aware, I am the only one to do so.- Total Posts 55
Actuary can you tell us also about your ratings?
I have read Quirin, Beyer, Mordin, Simpson, Billingham, Cardello and go on reading forums and anything related to Handicapping.
If I think that what they say is feasible I PUT IT TO THE TEST before I adopt it.
In its simplicity, the basic formula for speed handicapping is your standard time measured against the actual time the race was run in as a percentage.
How or where do I get these standard times?
IMHO you need to create your own standard times. if you want to speed this process up I would start with logging the times for every Class 6 races for 4yo+ with 8 runners or more. Once you have the basis you can give them a subtle tweak by cross comparison between courses (e.g. If your ratings from Newmarket don’t stand when they travel to other courses your standard time needs adjustement. You can create a cross matrix to keep them all in check for each course and distance by doing this you will be well ahead of any standard times published (except mine)
DO NOT mix classes
DO NOT mix age groups
DO NOT have to few runners that the race may be run at a false pace.Make your ‘Standard Times’ dynamic so as you enter more races in to your spreadsheet or database they adjust to cope with shift.
Like you I am on this forum and every other horse racing forum I can find to learn from others, to find a new angle not yet considered. All I can do for you is speed the process up but you will go your own way with your own ideas. Both BluesBrother and myself ‘Handicap’ but look at how diverse our ideas are!
You need to understand that when you embark on this project you will never be finished. When you have a 32% stike rate you look for a way to get 33% and so on, and so on.
Hope this helps
7:30 Beverley
Mon 20 Jul:CARL SKELTON HAPPY BIRTHDAY HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-75) Winner £3,238 RUK
Good 5f Number of runners: 131 8 160714 SIR NOD 20 7 9-11 75 Robert Winston Miss J A Camacho
80 +5
2 3 007011 HIGHLAND WARRIOR 6x 4 10 9-10 74 Paul Pickard(7) P T Midgley
76 +2
3 7 020567 DIVINE SPIRIT 11 8 9-8 72 Frederik Tylicki(3) M Dods
60 -12
4 13 -27352 BAHAMIAN BALLET 22 7 9-8 72 Andrea Atzeni(3) E S McMahon
76 +4
5 2 -58310 REQUISITE 27 4 9-8 v 72 Catherine Gannon I A Wood
79 +7
6 4 934690 GREEN PARK 9 6 9-8 b 72 D Nolan D Carroll
76 +4
7 11 4990-8 AVERTUOSO 19 5 9-8 72 Royston Ffrench B Smart
53 -19
8 6 630-00 PRINCE NAMID 3 7 9-3 67 Adrian T Nicholls D Nicholls
3 -64
9 5 00-307 COMMANDER WISH 16 6 9-1 p 65 J P Hamblett(5) Lucinda Featherstone
53 -12
10 10 -01706 REVUE PRINCESS 17 4 9-0 b 64 Michael J Stainton(3) T D Easterby
73 +9
11 12 3-5432 SELECT COMMITTEE 11 4 8-8 v 58 Jimmy Quinn J J Quinn
62 +4
12 9 0-0473 LAKE CHINI 4 7 8-8 b 58 Dale Gibson M W Easterby
60 +2
13 1 602494 STRATHMORE 6 5 8-6 56 Paul Hanagan R A Fahey
61 +5
Top Rated: SIR NOD 80 +5
Forecast : REQUISITE 79 +7On the 16th January HIGHLAND WARRIOR ran off a mark of 63 and I gave the
horse a rating of 76 +13 (see spreadsheet) over his OR mark, and tonight he is running off 74
and with Paul Pickard taking off 7lb’s the trainer is obviously going for the hat trick.
The higest rating I have given the horse in the past is 82 (23Aug08 C5) so hopefully he will
just get his head in front on the line and win for the connections.- Total Posts 55
Simpson, Billingham
Any more info about these two?
David Belingham, Stewart Simpson,
I have put links to books that may be of intereset on my blog
- Total Posts 55
The complexion of the 3 AWT races has changed dramatically as the races are being cut up with non-runners.
Nun Today currently available at 10-1 in the 7.25
Luck Will Come now available at 10-1 in the 8.25
look good value E.W.
horseracingtipsreview.blogspot.com
- Total Posts 55
After making a small loss today could not help feeling J Quinn picked my pocket.
Nun Today broke well only for J Quinn to take a massive tug and drop the horse in to last. Only effort made was in the straight after the race was lost to finish 5th. Would have never beaten the winner but should and could have been a place.
Quinn is also on Luck Will Come which was backed from 10’s down to 5’s. Adopts identical tatics and drops the horse out the back. Fortunately this time he gets through up the inside (not the best place to be at Lingfield) and takes the lead only to be collared in the last stride to go down a sht-hd in a photo.
I will try and get Southwells ratings up on my blog (link below) by the end of the day
managed to track your book down,beyer on speed………..its on play.com for 4.61…….free delivery
i am aware of a similiar system that uses the bha rating against the odds ratio………you have to do loads of working out but you end up with a horse which comes out higher than the rest…….only down fall is you need to do this just before the race as the odds keep changing
i do understand handicapping and speed figures and think you are definatley walking down the right path……….and as i am fully aware like my systems they must be very time consuming
i will stick to my speed raters for now but will follow yr thread as its very interesting
- Total Posts 55
Hola Mr Forecast,
You may want to get Picking Winners by Beyer. This is the book that shows you how to produce Beyer type figures and not Speed to Spare.
I have put together a desktop video to show how I produce my ratings for a whole meeting in less than 15 minutes whether this would be of interest to you.
yes would be interested in yr video…………….that other book is 4.50 on play.com and free delivery so both books for a tenner…………..
well back to my system times ticking
- Total Posts 55
Well done, you will feel if you haven’t read Beyer or books on American Racing before like you are learning a new language but you will soon get in to it. You may need to purchase a magnifying glass for the american racecards. Was that a pun…………times ticking!!
Not sure how best to get the video out at present. Dont think I can post it to the forum, not even sure if it will go on my blog. Might YouTube it and send the link.
Great thread guys. This is the kind of thread I would have been interested in reading and contributing to a few months ago when I first joined the Forum, but I never did get up and running this Flat season, and it is mainly passing me by.
I created my own par times for the AW a few years ago, but I never got around to using them, as I moved house and it was just before Wolverhampton slightly changed its distances. I did a few iterations, in that I calculated the median time for distance and class, used these to create Going Allowances for the meeting, and THEN used these to modify the median times and then re-applied them to the Going Allowances etc. This is the only piece of grist I can add to the mill, though I know at least one of you doesn’t bother with Going Allowances anyway.
Gerald
bluesbrother=
i have been looking at yr database and had a look at mine
yrs to say is a lot simpler to update than mine,i have a list of every horse,then all winning stats after……its a bit much and drives me mad
but
this way i can see the weights are going up or coming down and which track they seem to prefer……………..do you update yr rate after every win or do you keep it the same………
my database has today given obe gold who has won off a mark of 104 at catterick………..but today is running at 83
to say im busy with other things is an understatement but just thought i would share my findings
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