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I have always had an interest in handicapping horses which is strange as I rarely have a bet.
I set out by working out a set of class pars taken from a whole years results taken from every racecourse in the UK and came up with following.
(C7-52) (C6-60) (C5-68) (C4-80) (C3-92) (C2-96) (C1/Listed-100) (G3-106) (G2-112) (G1-120).
I update an excel spreadsheet twice a week, where I compare the BHA offical ratings against my own, and any horse that comes out +6 lb’s ahead of the handicapper is noted.
Look at sheet 2 for the complete class ratings table.[code:2lpozri7]http://tinyurl.com/dy6pq4[/code:2lpozri7]
- Total Posts 55
I always question the use of weights when it comes to handicapping. I think that ‘Speed Handicapping’ is a far more accurate measure of a horses ability.
My view is that the O.R. of a horse dictates the class of horse he is competing with and its best winning O.R. is when it can be competitive.
Here is a scenario for you. By what degree do you think that an Olympic sprinter running a 100 metres would be affected by carrying 3 bags of sugar on his back (6lb) Now ask by what degree something the size of a horse will be affected carrying the 3 bags of sugar?
I always question the use of weights when it comes to handicapping. I think that ‘Speed Handicapping’ is a far more accurate measure of a horses ability.
I agree with your statement on speed handicapping because that is what I use, a combination of speed + class.
To beat the offical handicapper you must find an edge and I use the Beyer method of not adjusting the ratings by weight carried, as it corrupts the ratings.
Tonight at Windsor in the 8.00 (C4) 6th July the offical Handicapper hasResurge
on a rating of 78 plus a 6lb penalty, I rated the horse at 96 which is a (C2) rating…this is what I call an edge.
- Total Posts 55
Because of my personal beliefs perhaps it would be unfair to attribute names to the origins of my Speed Figures but during 2008 I ran Beyer v Mordin (AWT only) side by side. You may be interested to know Mordin had a slight edge. I have continued this approach during 2009.
Where my figures differ from theirs is that I make no allowance for the going. Again after running a side by side comparison for 2 seasons of adjusted SF’s v non-adjusted SF’s. Non-adjusted gave me a 4% advantage so no more going allowances for me.
I have only just joined this forum in the hope of some stimulating outside the box thinking. Currently I am making a small profit by backing my top rated which are over 10-1 E.W. but still seek the goose that may lay the golden egg.
I would be interested in BluesBrother’s formulae for introducing Class in to the equation and am happy to reciprocate with my formulas and any other data which you may find useful.
Before you can handicap, you must have acurate course/distance standard times.
Weight and going must be incorporated in the equation. Then either Class Pars as per Mordin, Track Variance as per Beyer or Course Classification as per SOLIDUS.
SPOOK is the expert.
- Total Posts 55
If you are merely looking just to conform I agree.
But let’s do some free thinking and question those that went before us so we can move forward.
Your comment “Weight and going must be incorporated in the equation”
Do they?
Weight : It is impossibie to measure the physical affect of weight on an individual racehorse without knowing the mass, force, acceleration, friction, air resistance, centrifugal force and form and divorce from the above affects of the ground and configuration of the course. You can only guess and with each guess you corrupt your speed figures.
Research in to the impact of weight on racehorses by Rennets Alexandria showed that horses with weight increases obeyed the law of physics (2.4lbs to slow a horse by 1 length) but when it came to horses carrying lesser weight it took 6.2lbs to improve a horse by 1 length. The only reasonable cause of the discrepancy was believed to be due to horses increasing in weight would be those in form or dropping in class and those dropping down the weights out of form or stepping up in class.
Beyer himself found similar results in his more recent survey, further to this pin-pointed that horses given considerably more weight ran even faster! Beyer is NOT an advocate of adjusting for weight.
Another survey carried out by Nick Mordin concluded, and I quote “The way that young horses can over-ride increases in weight is not the only problem for the weight formula. The biggest headache is provided by the fact that racehorses come in different sizes. The biggest flat racehorse I have heard of weighed 1,350lbs, the smallest 660. Mordin is NOT an advocate of adjusting for weight.
If this is not convincing enough can I suggest you create your ratings weight adjusted and non-adjusted and compare their performance. YOU need to know that introducing them is an improvement not a corruption.
Going: First let me make it clear I specialise in AWT racing where the extremes found on the turf do not exist but here I have done my own research and ran side by side comparisons for years. I use various configurations to adjust for going but month on month never improved my winning strike rate by making a going adjustment.
The fundamental equation of the choice of standard time for course and distance weighted against the time ran is the basis of any speed figure. This is as factual as you can get. There is no corruption from your own personal conjecture. Until you know the results this gives. You are unable to measure the success of other elements you feel need to be added.
Look forward to your thoughts.
- Total Posts 17716
With all due respect, actuary, and regardless of what Beyer and Mordin might have found in their surveys, no conclusion they ever could come to would reasonably explain that horses defy gravity?
Weight carriedhas
to make a difference – whether it’s noticeable because of horses improving, racing against lower class, over shorter distances or on faster ground etc. is a moot point, but it’s folly to suppose its impact can be altogether ignored, and I’m surprised any thinking punter should still advocate it.
The weight question is a bit of an old chestnut on the forum.
I reached the conclusion some time ago that weight slows a horse down but the reverse is not necessarily true i.e. removing weight does not necessarily speed horses up. I think both Mordin and Beyer would agree with that statement.
This causes a dilemma for private handicappers who use weight, time and distance conversions which are supposed to be constant across a broad range of abilities. I’m afraid there is no easy way around this dilemma. All you can do is make some allowance that penalises horses rising in the weights, bearing in mind they might be improving faster than the weight penalty. For horses going down the weights, be very sceptical about that horse’s abilty to run faster as a result of carrying less weight.
As a very crude measure, I tend to award up to 4 points on my ratings method for horses in the top 12lbs of the handicap. The top weight and those within a few pounds get the maximum of 4 and those on 9, 10, or 11 lbs below get 1 point. In effect, I readjust the handicap so that horses in the lower weight brackets are penalised.
And it surprises me that any thinking punter should choose to pay any attention to the poppycock spouted by the king of retro-fit, Nick Mordin.
A laughable assertion in his recent Weekender article on speed ratings –
‘Do not adjust for wind – it really only significantly affects times at Newmarket’.
Together with amazing feats that defy the laws of physics, I do wonder if Mordin-World is populated by 3-legged chickens, 2-headed dogs and bearded ladies.
I will put forward a system to use with my spreadsheet above, which might help somebody to find a few winners.
Look out for any horse that according to my handicap ratings is 10+ or above on a recent outing, such as "Blue Jack" who ran at Windsor on the 6th July.
In column H "MAX CLASS", Blue Jack’s max class is (C2) and if his next run is in a (C3) this is a bet.Just food for thought
- Total Posts 55
If I can make one thing clear, although I have quoted Beyer and Mordin this is not my endorsement of their beliefs.
My stance will always be to prove any theory for myself before they become my own personal belief. Hence my suggestion that comparing figures with or without weight adjustment would give a definitive answer.
I would argue that there is potential to ignore the factor of weight if it does not improve the performance of your figures. If you have a strike rate of 32% without factoring for weight and 28% after adjustment do you carrying on adjusting your figures because of the laws of gravity?
We are all aware there are so many variables in racing if we considered them all we would not be able to see the wood for the trees. Perhaps some of these variables are not as important as we have been condition to believe they are!!
For those interested I have posted my figures for tomorrows evening meeting at Wolverhampton on my blog. New England looks a good bet in the first with a tissue of 12-1 and I may even be tempted to break my own rule of backing a horse I have rated less than 85 in Listillo if an E.W. price is available. I tend not to back anything shorter than 10-1 so will be watching the price for Adage closely.
For those interested I have posted my figures for tomorrows evening meeting at Wolverhampton on my blog. New England looks a good bet in the first with a tissue of 12-1
I had a look at the race at the Wolverhampton race and my top rated was MASTEROFCEREMONIES, and his 41/2 length 5th to Silvino, who hacked up Saturday has the form and draw to win here.
NEW ENGLAND was rated 12lb behind on 57.MASTEROFCEREMONIES
28May09 Ayr 10Gd C4Hc5K 8-4 5/9 4½L, Sirvino[20/1]9-8 Darren Moffatt69
DEUCE
01Jun09 Lei 12GF C53yHc2K 9-0 2/7 ¾L, Vita Mia[25/1]8-5b1 Stephen Carson67
LYTHAM
29Apr09 Kem 10St C5Hc2K 8-2 2/10 2L, Balnagore[6/1]8-13 Toby Atkinson67
RESPLENDENT ACE
28Jan09 Kem 12St C6Hc2K 9-8 7/12 8½L, Imperial Harry[5/1]9-7 Ian Mongan64
- Total Posts 55
I would be interested in seeing your ratings based upon each horses LTO at an All Weather course to see if it changes the reflection of the race.
How successful have you found transferring turf ratings on to the All Weather?
Hopefully those that saw my post from yesterday had a good evening with
Volochkova 1st @ 9-2
More Time Tim 1st @ 7-1My money stayed firmly in my pocket with no selections reaching my desired 10-1
Looks like slim pickings tomorrow with small fields at Southwell until the last where I am hoping that Calmdownmate will be a good E.W. with a tissue of 14-1. My ratings for the full card will be available before 10:00 tomorrow for those interested.
Hi actuary.
Can you tell us in which previus race/races your ratings are based/calculated from?
LTO race, last two races , last two but not equally,best of last two months etc.
Which race is the most important that you can say it best reflects the current potition of the horse?
Thanks- Total Posts 55
In the past, try as I might I have always been unable to produce ‘Speed Figures’ for a whole season without it taking over my whole life due to the volume of racing. I have tried Turf Flat, NH but as a family man a holiday, even a day trip always left me playing catch-up. This leads us to why I specialise in All Weather. It only takes me 15 minutes to rate a complete card and 15 minutes to enter a complete meeting results in to my database. There are never more than 3 meetings in a day and that is a rarity so this becomes easily manageable. No more Bank Holidays attempting to enter 10 meetings! Truth be known I HATE All Weather racing but it gives me a steady profit.
So to answer your question my ratings are based on LTO on an ‘All Weather’ surface. I have some appreciation for the fact that these surfaces are not as unique as they were in the early days but have proven to myself you CAN NOT use turf ratings on the all weather. All my ratings are ALWAYS from the current season. Why! Takes some explaining so I will leave that one for now.
I am aware of the old adage that ‘horses are not machines’ but believe they are far more consistent than we give credit for so have no issues with form lines being punctuated by turf races. Yesterdays 2 top rated winners Volochkove last races on the All Weather 76 days ago. More Time Tim 62 days. Both had won on the surface LTO but as they had outings on the turf prices were perhaps a little more generous than they otherwise may have been.
Also each season I look at some new angles of attack. When I have time I will up a section of spreadsheet in the hope it will stimulate discussion and other people’s ideas can be scrutinised and tested.
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