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Redwood is favourite for this, but hasn’t raced since Dubai and will he be effective if the rains come?
Afsare ran well at Newmarket last time, but is rain may be against him too?
Crystal Capella has form with the best fillies last year, but did she show enough first time out?
Is Laaheb as good as he was last year?
Myplacelater followed home Crystal Capella home in the Pride stakes, but disappointed on reappearance when Elssie was in poor form (better now). Is she good enough?
Was there any excuse for Campanologist to be so well beaten at Ascot?
Is Ted Spread up to this level and does he need to be fresh?
Are the three year olds good enough and will they get the run of the race out front?
Why haven’t we seen Dordoyne since Lingfield and was it a good Derby trial?
Is Buthelezi too temperamental?
Value Is EverythingNon-Mark Johnston 3yos have an atrocious record in this so chuck out Buthelezi.
Laaheb is exposed as they come. Strings of 1s and 2s in Listed and Group 3s, stepped up in class on his last 3 outings and he’s finished 454. Chuck him out.
Myplacelater and Ted Spread just aren’t good enough.
Campanologist, I’m sick and tired of this horse. He gets away with staying 12f against lesser lights, but against proper horses over a 12f as sharp as this one, doesn’t get a squeak from me.
Crystal Capella showed sod all on her last outing, a run which didn’t give her trainer any credit. He left her extremely short of full fitness and was beaten so far out, it’s just not true. Can’t take a chance on her at 9/2 given I backed her at 9/2 LTO against lesser lights, running at a lower class level against her own gender.
It’s 12 days since Afsare was 2nd to Jukebox Jury, but he came off a slow gallop and may be rested enough to show his best. I worry about stamina. I have no doubt that he stays 12f, but the amount of time this race goes to a horse who’s been campaigned over further than 12f in the past is ridiculous. LTO was his first outing over this distance so I’m passing him over. Practically every Cumani horse I’ve gone to back or noticed in the betting on Betfair has drifted markedly, so wait before you bet would be my advice.
I am falling in love with De Sousa who looks one of the smartest jockeys I’ve ever seen. He’s got a shrewd trainer and he’s got a decent brain on his shoulders. If Dordogne gets an easy lead, which he may well do, he could make them go some. A May foal, so he’ll be improving the whole time.
Redwood’s a class apart from these. Group 1 winner not carrying a penalty. 2nd on his last 2 outings in International Group 1s, beaten a neck in a Canadian Group 1 the time before, etc. A class apart. 2nd in this last year behind an extremely classy horse and there’s no chance of him being unplaced. Whacking him in an each-way double should be a fruitful affair should the other one place. Insurance on Dordogne.
Very nice of Stoute to leave her at 50% fitness last time out. She was beaten 5 furlongs out. Embarrassing.
Wasn’t a surprise Crystal Capella needed her reappearance. Ran poorly on her final start of 2010 in December. Now a six year old. It is well known the older a horse gets, (in most/many cases) the harder it is to get fit. Giving 7 lbs to some progressive four year olds.
Was Stoutey really going to get Crystal Capella fit for her reappearance in a listed race? When there were many other bigger targets ahead.
Value Is EverythingShe won after a year off the track in the Pride Stakes last year. If Stoute doesn’t want to get her ready, fine, leave her at 80 or 90 percent. Look at what Behkabad, Workforce, Sarafina, Planteur, Goldikova, Canford Cliffs, etc, all did on their seasonal debuts this season. I very much doubt their reappearances were #1 on their list of priorities. Then look what Crystal Capella did.
thought Stoute did a superb job with her, not that i took notice of some unusual clues from him in the interview pre-race!
cracking performance, trainer and horse
She won after a year off the track in the Pride Stakes last year. If Stoute doesn’t want to get her ready, fine, leave her at 80 or 90 percent. Look at what Behkabad, Workforce, Sarafina, Planteur, Goldikova, Canford Cliffs, etc, all did on their seasonal debuts this season. I very much doubt their reappearances were #1 on their list of priorities. Then look what Crystal Capella did.
It is not comparing like with like though is it?
Crystal Capella’s reappearance last year was in October, with very few other possible "targets" left. It was also in a Group 2 which she had won the previous year. You have to ask yourself….
(A) Why is she running in a listed race when already a Group 2 winner?
(B) Is she likely to be anywhere near fit?Of all those horses you quoted Zarkava, only Goldikova is a 6 year old and she ran in a Group 1 first time up. Canford Cliffs also a Group 1.
The only one anywhere near comparable was Workforce (who is only 4 years old not 6) in a Group 3. But he had won the Arc on his final start of 2010. Crystal Capella ran poorly on her final start of 2010 (possibly suggesting a minor injury).
A combination of being a 6 year old, the poor final start, running in a listed race first off, with a stable yet to hit top form – rang alarm bells.
Value Is EverythingThat’s a very healthy outlook that’ll save you a lot of money. Have learnt my lesson from that anyway.
With reasoning as sound as that, GingerT, regarding Crystal Capella, I take it you’ve backed and layed the mare accordingly?
Or is it only ever as crystal clear as that after the event?
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For once, I agree with Ginger (maybe he’s learning that value isn’t everything
); one should always be cautious of seasonal reappearances made in lower class races, unless there’s a specific reason for it. It’s also worth questioning whether Redwood (in that same position) was really up for this 45k prize, considering some of the purses he’s raced for latterly.
It’s also worth noting that SMS rarely keeps a 6yo in training without expecting improvement – even got a win from Confront this year, albeit he’s Workforce’s lead horse.With reasoning as sound as that, GingerT, regarding Crystal Capella, I take it you’ve backed and layed the mare accordingly?
Or is it only ever as crystal clear as that after the event?
I rarely lay horses Onthesteal. Unless it is a saver bet on something I’ve already backed to win.
No, I did not lay Crystal Capella at Haydock, but did back against her. Unfortunately only with the second, Vita Nova.
Yes, I did back Crystal Capella yesterday. I made her a 100/30 shot and was surprised at the price of 9/2. Particularly after rain, with two main rivals Redwood and Afsare probably inconvenienced by a soft surface. Made a mistake of backing the latter though, before it bacame evident it was on the soft side.
Both Vita Nova and yesterday’s bets are in my Daily Lays and Plays thread.
Reet,
Reading between the lines is all part of deciding what price is value.Value Is Everything
); one should always be cautious of seasonal reappearances made in lower class races, unless there’s a specific reason for it. It’s also worth questioning whether Redwood (in that same position) was really up for this 45k prize, considering some of the purses he’s raced for latterly.
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